The New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day feels like a gift from the football Gods. Both teams come into the matchup with a 7-3 record and within striking distance of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles.
While both teams come in with the same record, Vegas sees them quite differently, as Dallas currently sits as nine-point favorites. A Giants vs. Cowboys prediction is right in my wheelhouse, however, and my sports betting model sees it closer than that.
Both teams have been above average in consistency on both sides of the ball. The Behavior Bets model loves nothing more than consistent football teams, and it makes playing these Giants vs. Cowboys odds exciting. Can the Giants cover that spread? Yes. Will they win? Not so fast.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Odds | Week 12
- Spread: Giants +9
- Moneyline: Cowboys -430
- Over/Under: Over 45.5
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Giants’ offense has been a favorite of my sports betting model. All season, they have led the league in both celeration rate and bounce rate. They haven’t grown, nor have they had any decay week over week in the rate at which they are scoring points.
Likewise, with a bounce rate of just x1.8, the ratio between their highest and lowest variance is less than a multiple of two. This gives them only a 10-point possibility window, before factoring in the team they are playing. It doesn’t get better than that.
According to my Pikkit stats, I am 2-1 in picking Giants games this season and missing on their predicted points scored by an average of 2.5 points. New York is on pace to score 20 points in this one.
The Cowboys are bringing Micah Parsons to the Thanksgiving table, and he likes to eat. He’s third in the league in sacks and as disruptive a force as we have in the NFL. Parsons has been a major reason why the Cowboys have given up less than 20 points in 70% of their games this year.
What has been alarming for this defense, however, is that after five straight games of declining point totals to open the season, they gave up 26+ points in three of their next four games. The one game in that stretch where they held an opponent to six points was the Lions, who, to that point, had scored 24+ points in four out of five games.
Dallas is also coming off a game in which they held the NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings to just three points on the road. I think those games where they gave up 26 or more points were more or less outliers to what otherwise has been a dominating and punishing defense. The Giants aren’t a scoring juggernaut, and I think that continues on Thursday.
Dak Prescott Is Accelerating the Offense
The Cowboys are coming off a stretch of three games where they are averaging 39 points since Dak Prescott’s return. Since then, Dallas has averaged 60% more points per game and has seen 93% growth in the rate they are scoring points week over week. That’s the best in the league over that stretch.
The only player who has had an impact similar to that is when Tua Tagovailoa returned for the Miami Dolphins and they saw an 80% growth rate in points scored. If the Cowboys continue at this pace, it could make a real case that Dak is an MVP candidate, in terms of real value to team performance. The Cowboys score 26 points in this one.
The Giants’ defense is tasked with slowing them down. While the Cowboys’ 93% growth rate is likely unsustainable, I don’t expect a complete halt of point scoring due to the Giants’ defense.
The model sees Dallas scoring between 24 and 30 points in this matchup, with a likelihood of 26 points. New York has given up 23 points or fewer in 80% of their games, with two outliers above 30. The Giants narrowly cover the nine-point spread in this one. It’s going to be tight, but I think they do it in this New York vs. Dallas prediction.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys 26, Giants 20