If it wasn’t for the elite fantasy football production we have seen from Travis Kelce over the last seven years, then many may consider San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle as the best tight end in all of football.
After topping 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019, what can fantasy managers expect from Kittle in 2024?
George Kittle’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Kittle’s TE5 overall finish in full-PPR formats with 65 receptions for 1,020 yards and six TDs is a great fantasy season. Yet, playing in a crowded, high-powered 49ers’ offense that was exceptionally efficient last season and fighting with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and possibly even Ricky Pearsall for targets this upcoming year could give him a volatile weekly outlook in 2024.
When you take a closer look, Kittle’s numbers were very good last year, but fall a bit short in elite metrics.
George Kittle’s 2023 Fantasy Stats (Position Rank)
- Targets: 90 (ninth)
- Receptions: 65 (10th)
- Yards: 1,020 (first)
- Touchdowns: 6 (second)
These numbers can tell us two different stories.
Kittle is one of the most explosive playmakers in the league at the TE position, which is evident by him leading all TEs in receiving yards despite finishing 10th in receptions. Additionally, Kittle’s 31 receptions of 20+ yards led all other players at his position by 10 such plays and he logged the longest reception of the year by any tight end at 66 yards.
On the other hand, Kittle isn’t likely to see an elite target share at the position, which means he would have to keep his great level of efficiency in a crowded offense intact to maintain this type of fantasy production.
Is Kittle able to do that? Absolutely. He is one of the best in the league at what he does and is schemed up excellently by 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.
Kittle has averaged 69 receptions for 959 yards and just under six TDs over the last six seasons. It’s worth mentioning that he missed eight games in 2020 to help drag some of those numbers down. But it is still a great fantasy floor that feels very attainable in 2024.
Yet, remember that mention about volatility in this loaded 49ers offense? Well, it was definitely evident in some down weeks in 2023.
Kittle has seven games where he finished outside of the top 20 at the TE position last year in full-PPR formats. The fact that Samuel, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey all demanded their looks in the passing game from a team that ranked 30th in the league in pass attempts means the weekly floor can be unusually low for an elite fantasy producer like Kittle in 2024.
Although I believe Pearsall is a bigger threat to steal some work away from either Aiyuk or Samuel this upcoming season, it does potentially present another mouth to feed in the form of a very capable, versatile receiver the team invested first-round draft capital in for a reason.
Currently, Kittle’s ADP sits at No. 69 overall near the end of the sixth round as the TE7 off the board.
One could argue that Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Jake Ferguson — who are all currently being selected behind Kittle — could see greater target shares in their respective offenses in 2024, giving them a slightly higher floor than Kittle.
Yet, the 49ers offense was a high-scoring machine in 2023 and could be even better with Brock Purdy getting his first full offseason as the unquestioned starter in while not rehabbing from a serious injury.
Kittle is definitely worth the price of admission, given his lengthy track record of success and continued high level of play. But I’ll probably find myself passing on him due to my preference for other higher-volume tight ends a round or two later.
George Kittle’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 188 (127 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 61
- Receiving Yards: 834
- Receiving TDs: 7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.