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Garrett Wilson’s Rest-of-Season Fantasy Outlook
Wilson, the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, entered the 2023 season as one of the most hyped fantasy wide receivers in recent memory. He finished with 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie despite playing with a handful of underwhelming quarterbacks.
The line of thinking was that with Rodgers now under center for the Jets, Wilson could go from a really good fantasy wide receiver to one with a WR1 overall ceiling.
The former Ohio State star had been drafted as the WR9 overall, per FantasyPros, with an average draft position (ADP) in the middle of the second round. But Wilson’s 2023 outlook took a significant hit in Week 1, as Rodgers tore his left Achilles against the Buffalo Bills four offensive snaps into the game.
Wilson and the Jets are now stuck with third-year quarterback Zach Wilson, who struggled significantly when on the field last season. The Wilson-to-Wilson combination has connected on a touchdown in each of the Jets’ first two games, but Garrett Wilson’s fantasy ceiling is significantly limited by the change under center moving forward.
The 2022 first-rounder still has the chance to be a top-20 fantasy wide receiver the rest of the year, purely based on his own talent.
After all, Wilson finished as the WR21 overall as a rookie and looks just as good, if not better, this season. But it’s hard to imagine Wilson putting up production to match his ADP, considering the team’s drop-off at quarterback.
Wilson caught just two passes against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2, but his fantasy output (16.3 PPR points) was saved on a 68-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter.
Yet, Wilson didn’t haul in another pass until early in the fourth quarter, as the Jets’ offense was unable to muster much of anything against the talented Cowboys’ unit.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 17, 2023
Wilson still saw a team-high eight targets against Dallas, so the Jets appear committed to getting him the football. However, how successful they’ll be in doing that largely depends on Zach Wilson under center, and the early returns haven’t been great.
Should I Trade Wilson?
Whether to trade Wilson or not is a difficult decision because Wilson’s fantasy owners almost certainly won’t get equal value for him in return. Non-Wilson fantasy managers are going to cite Rodgers’ absence as a reason to try and acquire the rising star receiver at a much lower cost.
In the past decade, we’ve seen several top-tier wide receivers post elite fantasy seasons despite subpar quarterback play (hello, DeAndre Hopkins). Wilson has the chance to be the next wideout to do so. It’s worth holding onto Wilson for now unless fantasy owners are blown away by an excellent trade offer.
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