Few players have been as volatile of a fantasy football option over the last few years as wide receiver Gabe Davis. His inconsistent four-year run with the Buffalo Bills came to an end when the UCF product signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason, making his fantasy value even more difficult to pinpoint heading into his fifth NFL season.
Can fantasy managers expect Davis to finally realize his full potential in his first year with a new team in 2024?
Gabe Davis’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
To call Davis’ 2023 fantasy production a complete failure would be doing the player a bit of a disservice. Davis’ 45 receptions for 746 yards and seven touchdowns helped him finish the year as the WR41 in full-PPR formats.
Was this production a far cry from the high expectations many had for him after his four-touchdown performance against the Kansas City Chiefs three postseasons ago? Yes, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t strung together some impressive fantasy outings.
Davis generated five top-15 fantasy finishes over his 17 games played last season, which were all games where he caught 4+ passes for 5+ yards and a score.
On the flip side of that coin, though, were Davis’ regular Houdini impersonations, where his production would completely vanish from the plane of his fantasy existence. Astonishingly, Davis had five games in 2023 where he failed to catch a single pass.
This, my friends, is the true definition of a boom-or-bust player in fantasy football.
This may be easier for fantasy managers to expect if we knew Davis’ situation was remaining the same. Yet, he won’t be catching passes from Josh Allen in 2024.
Instead, Davis joins a Jaguars’ offense with a franchise-caliber QB under center in Trevor Lawrence who has failed to live up to expectations in his own right.
The Jaguars’ collection of quality pass catchers makes this a pretty crowded receiver room, with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram gobbling up a vast majority of the slot work. Meanwhile, Davis will have to compete with an ultra-talented outside vertical prospect in rookie Brian Thomas Jr. for shots down the field while operating predominantly on the outside of the formation.
Can Davis be productive in this type of role? Yes, it will be pretty similar to what we saw from him during his days with the Bills. Yet, this could once again position him to be a volatile option on a weekly basis.
There’s no doubt Davis will have a role as a vertical playmaker in Jacksonville’s offense. My biggest issue with his fantasy outlook is his jump in target competition.
Sure, the Jaguars don’t currently have a solidified stud like Stefon Diggs on the roster. But the collection of three other talented options actually gives him more competition in Jacksonville than he had in Buffalo — which doesn’t make me feel comfortable projecting a jump in overall production.
Davis may get off a faster start while Thomas fully acclimates to the pro game. Once the talented rookie gets fully up to speed though, Davis could realistically be the fourth — or even fifth option if you factor Travis Etienne Jr. — in this equation.
Davis’ ADP of No. 161 overall as the WR60 off the board feels appropriate for a volatile boom-or-bust option at the position. For some additional context, he’s being drafted behind Jerry Jeudy, Brandin Cooks, and Adam Thielen.
I think this really comes down to roster build and format. If you want a WR6 on your roster who gives you home-run upside when the matchup is favorable, then Davis is a nice dart throw in this range.
Yet, I don’t want to be the one to burst anyone’s bubble… but the odds of Davis jumping into the WR2 range with more target competition and a slight downgrade at quarterback doesn’t feel very likely.
