As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of WR Gabe Davis.
Gabe Davis’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
Welp, that was disappointing. But maybe we should’ve expected it, in a way. I was all in on the Davis hype train last offseason, and while I never thought he would completely break away from his boom-or-bust style of play, I thought there would be more consistency. We didn’t see that.
Playing in 14 games, Davis finished as the WR38 overall and 33rd in per game scoring at 11.8 PPR. However, Davis had a statistical career year in 2022. After recording 63 targets and 35 receptions in 2021, Davis caught 45 of his 83 targets for a career-best 797 yards and seven touchdowns. That is unequivocally an improvement. It’s just not the massive leap we’d hoped for.
What is important to note, however, is that Davis was the field stretcher we had seen before. His 1,418 air yards were 15th in the league despite him sitting only 46th in targets. But what hurt Davis was his inability to truly create separation. He was 80th, averaging 2.8 yards of separation per target, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver
While Davis took a step in the right direction, his dynasty value likely took a hit. His 18.5% touchdown rate was due for regression, and with a prime opportunity to become the unquestioned No. 2 target, Davis was far more boom/bust than anyone wanted, finishing as a WR3 or worse in 67% of his games.
He failed to capture the role fully and will likely end up losing targets in 2023, assuming Buffalo brings in one of the top-tier rookies in this upcoming class, especially if it’s someone like Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who can play either outside or in the slot. It’s safe to say Davis is one of the most polarizing players in the entire dynasty landscape.
Gabe Davis’ Fantasy Ranking
Many dynasty managers thought they were sitting on a goldmine by having Davis on their roster. I was right there with them expecting a larger role and for Davis to have a great year. Instead, he dropped in dynasty rankings compared to this time last year but not by a substantial amount.
With free agency about to begin, Davis is the WR39 in PPR formats and is the No. 98 player overall in Superflex leagues, where QBs see an increase in value due to positional scarcity. This places him in the high-end Flex range, which likely is the more realistic territory for Davis than expecting him to reach WR2 status.
Something that is interesting to note was a response by Bills head coach Sean McDermott about Davis and expectations moving forward:
“I thought he had a good year, I really did. He didn’t get off to a great start. There were some turbulent times in the front third of the season, but the thing I thought he handled extremely well was that adversity and came back, and he went through a high-ankle sprain, and then he came back and finished the year at moments, and in a good way.
“He’ll learn from that — the way Gabe is wired as well, this is a guy who, when we drafted him, was out running routes on the field. So, he’s wired that way to come back and have a great third season.”
What sticks out to me is the mention of the high-ankle sprain. It was noted he did deal with an ankle injury, but the severity is something new. While I am not trying to simply make excuses for Davis, this is relevant information and could explain some of the inconsistencies he showed last season. A fully healthy Davis could now be a value if you are willing to jump back on the hype train.
Davis is a hold for me in dynasty, as you couldn’t move him now for the same value spent to acquire him. Still, he carries enough upside and is on an offense too explosive to believe he can’t remain a fantasy asset, even if it’s only as a WR3 moving forward. So long as he has Josh Allen throwing to him, Davis will carry dynasty value.
