Jadan Baugh was the first running back off the board in The Athletic’s early 2027 mock draft, slotted at No. 22 to Houston. That tells you where the Florida back’s stock sits heading into 2026, and it set up an easy verdict on PFSN’s Football Debate Club, where both analysts chose breakout over bust.
Why Jadan Baugh Is Set for a 2026 Breakout
Ian Cummings draws a distinction worth keeping straight. The on-field breakout already happened.
“From a production standpoint, last year was the breakout to begin with,” Cummings said. “But from a draft prospect standpoint, I do think he’s due.”
The numbers carry the first half. Baugh ran for 1,170 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2025, earned second-team All-SEC, and became the first Gator to crack 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2015. He closed with 266 yards against Florida State, the first 200-yard rushing game by a Gator in more than two decades.
The case against him is the roster around him. Florida lost center Jake Slaughter and tackle Austin Barber to the 2026 draft, carries questions at quarterback, and installed a new offensive coordinator. Cummings reads that last change as a positive. Buster Faulkner arrives from Georgia Tech, where his lines anchored a top-12 national offense and produced first-round guard Keylan Rutledge. By PFSN’s team OL Impact grading, those Yellow Jackets lines ranked inside the top 25 last season.
“He’s got the full package,” Cummings said of Baugh. “He can operate as a creative runner, but then also punish downhill.”
How the New Florida Offense Fits Baugh
Jacob Infante arrived at breakout from the scheme side. He looked at what new head coach Jon Sumrall ran at Tulane and how it should travel to Gainesville.
“There was a pretty good mix of zone and gap,” Infante said. “Baugh is somebody who can play both decisively.”
That versatility is the heart of the projection. Infante liked the physicality on gap runs, the patience on zone concepts, and a blend of size and feel that does not come along often.
“As a gap runner, I love the physicality, the ability to hit the hole hard. The speed, the strength, the size,” Infante said. “As a zone runner, he shows good patience in letting the play develop. He’s a physical specimen with better ball-carry vision than most his size.”
At 6-1 and around 230 pounds, Baugh runs bigger than his frame in short yardage and quicker than it in the open field. He forced a heavy volume of missed tackles in 2025 and adds third-down value as a receiver and a capable blocker, the every-down profile that lifts backs into the first round.
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The bust risk is real on paper. New scheme, unsettled quarterback room, rebuilt line. None of it touches the talent, and the fit looks clean. If Baugh matches his 2025 output behind a Faulkner-coached front, he moves into the first-round conversation for real, and Florida lands its first opening-round running back in nearly three decades.
