Finding the Right QB Draft Strategy for Dynasty Superflex Leagues

    If you're diving into a dynasty Superflex league, let’s discuss how to find the right QB draft strategy for startup formats.

    The idea of a Superflex league is still relatively new in the fantasy community. As new and innovative dynasty fantasy football formats continue to emerge, managers need to be ready to learn and adapt in order to succeed. How can you go about finding the right QB draft strategy for dynasty Superflex leagues?

    What Is a Superflex Position in Fantasy Football?

    For those new to the format, the term Superflex will likely be a new concept for you, but don’t worry, it’s much simpler than you might initially think.

    The Superflex position in a fantasy football league is just like your usual Flex position, except you can also start a quarterback. It’s the fantasy football community’s answer on how to make the QB position more valuable and closer to how they’re viewed in real life.

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    Two-quarterback leagues aren’t always feasible because it’s unrealistic to mandate every team to start two QBs each week when there are a maximum of 32 at a given time. In a 12-team league, four teams will always be without a third quarterback. And that’s assuming no team rosters for them, which tends to happen.

    Superflex allows the manager to start a quarterback while not forcing them into it, just in case there’s been an injury or a bye along the way. While it’s highly suggested that you have a quarterback in your Superflex spot due to them not only having a higher floor but also a ceiling compared to running backs and wide receivers, you’re not forced into it if your team is in a bad spot.

    How Does the Addition Of a Superflex Position Impact Fantasy Football Drafts?

    The prevailing strategy in most 1QB fantasy football drafts has been to wait on the quarterback. Of course, teams will always take an elite QB early. That has become a solid strategy over the last few years. But most quarterbacks will go in the middle to the later rounds of the draft.

    In Superflex leagues, quarterbacks go early. Very early. The most prominent mental adjustment fantasy managers transitioning into a Superflex league need to make is adjusting their values and accepting that taking middling QB2s over upside RB2s and WR1s is sometimes necessary.

    Supply And Demand Increase the Value Of QBs

    Just like in the grocery stores when toilet paper was nowhere to be found, supply and demand ruled the day. The fewer there are, the more they cost. That’s the reason Superflex was created, to begin with.

    In a typical week, you’ll see at minimum 75 running backs and 100+ wide receivers have some level of involvement in their offense. After all, there’s a reason they make up the vast majority of your starting fantasy football roster. But for a quarterback, unless something drastically went wrong, that number maxes out at 32, sometimes being as low as 26 during some bye weeks.

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    The finite supply naturally increases the demand, especially for reliable quarterbacks. Ideally, in a Superflex league, you want two trustworthy starting QBs. Personally, I have adopted the strategy where I like to have both of mine in the first three rounds, but there are multiple ways to go about this.

    Any strategy can be made to work. Yet, some are more consistent in their outcomes than others.

    Quarterbacks Score More Than Any Other Position

    Quarterback is the highest-scoring position in fantasy football. Even the worst starting QBs in the NFL average around 13 fantasy points per game. That’s roughly the cutoff for WR3 production and why starting two quarterbacks is so valuable.

    A typical starting lineup might look like this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Superflex.

    In 2022, 20 quarterbacks who started at least 11 games averaged at least 15 ppg. Those mid-to-high QB2s that often go undrafted in 1QB leagues are significantly better than the WR4 or RB3 you typically start in your Flex.

    Using last season again as an example, just 10 RBs averaged 15+ PPR with 14 at WR. That’s it. It’s very difficult to win a Superflex league without two good quarterbacks and even more difficult if you don’t even have one.

    Don’t Stress Over the Opportunity Cost of Drafting a QB

    For me, the hardest concept to grasp was the opportunity cost. Taking a QB I would normally take in the 10th round in Round 2 just felt wrong. How could I pass on a locked-in WR1 or high RB2 for this mediocre starting QB?

    That’s where opportunity cost comes in. The opportunity cost is actually not nearly as much as it seems. Although you may be passing on an elite asset at WR or RB, so is everyone else. In dynasty Superflex startup drafts, you can see anywhere from 12-16 quarterbacks go in the first two rounds.

    That’s why it’s important to see the scoring difference between even a middling QB like Jimmy Garoppolo last year and see how he outscored Rhamondre Stevenson (14.7) and all but 12 wide receivers. Even bad QBs are usually better than WR2s.

    Those great wide receivers and running backs you passed on in Round 2 will be there in the third and even the fourth. The value of quarterbacks drafted inevitably pushes down the ADPs over other positions.

    What Is the Optimal Strategy for Drafting QBs in Dynasty Superflex?

    As noted above, if you don’t have quarterbacks, your team is likely drastically capped in its probability of bringing home a championship. That’s double the case in dynasty, where it will require blowing up a roster to trade for difference-making quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Justin, Herbert, and even Anthony Richardson if things pan out. They’re the most valuable players in Superflex drafts.

    It’s said all the time, and while I might be cliché, it’s always true. Quarterbacks are never cheaper than they are during the Superflex draft. The only time you see quarterbacks going for the equivalent value of ball carriers and pass catchers is during the draft. Although Christian McCaffrey may be drafted right next to Mahomes in a startup, when the draft is over, you can’t trade McCaffrey for Mahomes straight up.

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    A dynasty team can only go as far as quarterbacks will take them. For me, the optimal strategy in a Superflex dynasty draft is to grab two quarterbacks in the first three rounds while also being earlier than some to take my QB3.

    I want at least one of the quarterbacks I previously mentioned. Depending on where I am in the draft, if I know it might be a few extra picks until it comes back (slot 10-12, for example), I have no issue doubling up in my first two selections and pairing Jackson with Lawrence, Justin Fields, or even Kyler Murray, and Tua Tagovailoa. They provide the upside instability I need in my second QB spot for Superflex.

    I will also target someone like Kenny Pickett during the draft. I feel his value is being a little bit suppressed due to a mixed performance as a rookie. He has better odds of increasing in value than seeing it go down. Given that you roster these players for as long as you want, it’s better for them to develop on your bench than in someone else’s lineup.

    Ideally, I’m also walking away with a fourth quarterback in the later rounds. That fourth QB doesn’t need to be a starter, but it all depends on how the draft flows. That could be a high-upside QB behind a weak starter like Will Levis. A player getting their first shot at a starting job like Sam Howell. Or a veteran coming towards the twilight of their career but in a new opportunity like Derek Carr.

    Every one of those quarterbacks has a path to value and will likely retain it longer than any wide receiver, or running back of equivalent draft value. That’s all you can ask for in a Superflex draft.

    Tommy Garrett is the Senior Fantasy Football Analyst at Pro Football Network. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here and follow him on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.

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