While Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been penciled as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft for quite some time, recent takes from a number of analysts have created a debate: could Alabama QB Ty Simpson actually emerge as the QB1 from this class?
Simpson has a lot of fans around the NFL, with ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky being one of the more outspoken supporters. While many have tabbed Mendoza as the safer pick and Simpson as the higher-upside pick based on his film and lack of starts, let’s break down both QBs.
Fernando Mendoza’s NFL Projection and Scouting Report
Here is Mendoza’s scouting report from PFSN’s Mock Draft Simulator.
“Fernando Mendoza is the favorite to be the first overall pick, after a 2025 season that saw him win the Heisman Trophy and lead his Indiana Hoosiers to a Big Ten title and National Championship. Mendoza was one of the top QBs in the nation in PFSN’s QB Impact metric, with a glowing score of 93.3.
“At 6’5”, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel. He’s a crisp rotational thrower who always gives his WR a chance, and also flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability.
“Beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength, pre-snap and post-snap recognition, and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws both up the seams and outside the hashes. There’s a degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down, but that’s a byproduct of him seeing those miniscule windows and having the fearlessness to take chances.
“He’s a pocket passer first; while he’s a great linear athlete, his hip stiffness limits his appeal operating off-platform and sources mechanical instability on the move. However, in the pocket, he’s a gunslinger with a perfectly calibrated risk propensity pallet and a penchant for delivering in key moments, who resembles a young, peak Carson Palmer. He’s a clear franchise QB candidate, who can elevate an organization toward Super Bowl contention.”
Ty Simpson’s NFL Projection and Scouting Report
Here is Simpson’s scouting report from PFSN’s Mock Draft Simulator:
“Ty Simpson’s sample size remains frustratingly small, but the Alabama passer took the NFL Draft world by storm with his quick ascent in 2025. Simpson waited his turn to start at Alabama, and at his best in 2025, that time developing appeared to have molded him into a clear Round 1 passer. But ugly losses to Oklahoma and Indiana exposed Simpson’s biggest issues, and even through the wins later in the year, he proved more inconsistent than desired.
“Still, Simpson was able to end the season with a solid PFSN QB Impact score of 85.4. One of Simpson’s best traits is his mechanical profile; he has some of the cleanest throwing form in the class, with consistent sync and hip torque across situations. And in his best moments, he’s shown he can quickly discern coverage voids pre-snap and anticipate over the middle.
“That said, his post-snap processing and trigger run hot-and-cold, his situational precision falters too often in spite of his solid mechanics, and his non-elite arm strength shows up when attempting to drive passes downfield. With his general freneticism, Simpson could’ve benefitted from returning to school, but in a scarce QB class, he’s the best positioned to benefit.
“He resembles Marc Bulger with his talent profile and good-not-great operational skill set, and while he may never elevate a team to Super Bowl contention, a quality starting career is on the table.”
Mendoza vs. Simpson: The Verdict
While Mendoza vs. Simpson has become a viral debate, PFSN’s NFL Draft analyst Ian Cummings doesn’t believe this is close.
“Simpson has shown potential first-round QB ability in glimpses, but Mendoza is the only QB in the 2026 NFL Draft who consistently played at that elite level throughout the 2025 season, and in clutch moments like the Big Ten Championship and the CFB Playoffs,” he said.
“Mendoza has superior traits, superior production, and a superior operational profile. For that reason, the massive gap between him and Simpson is warranted.”
PFSN’s NFL analyst Jacob Infante echoed this sentiment: “Fernando Mendoza is far and away my QB1 in the 2026 draft class. Compared to Simpson, he has a larger sample size, a bigger frame, a stronger arm, and more consistency down the field. There’s a lot to like with Simpson between his pocket awareness and decision-making abilities, but Mendoza has a higher ceiling and carries less risk as a more proven prospect.”
While Mendoza is a lock to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, it remains to be seen when Simpson will be picked. It’s possible that he will be a late first-round pick, but Cummings’ most recent seven-round mock draft projects that the Alabama QB will be second-round selection (No. 33 overall to the New York Jets).
