Coming off a Heisman-winning season and leading the Indiana Hoosiers to an undefeated regular season, Fernando Mendoza is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. With the 2025-26 NFL regular season now complete, the first pick belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders.
As a result of their draft positioning and their need for a long-term quarterback, the Raiders feel like the safest landing spot prediction for Mendoza this offseason. Stranger things have happened, however, and there’s no guarantee that Las Vegas will fall in line with the consensus.
These are five teams that make sense as the best landing spots for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, ranked in order of how often he gets picked by each team in the PFSN NFL Mock Draft Simulator.
Las Vegas Raiders
As previously mentioned, the Raiders are far and away the most likely landing spot for Mendoza in this year’s draft. In PFSN’s NFL Mock Draft Simulator, 34.8% of mock drafts have him ending up with the Raiders. Now that they’ve locked down the top pick, expect that percentage to rise.
Geno Smith finishes the regular season with 17 interceptions, which was the highest total of any QB this year. His 201.7 passing yards per game is the lowest average he’s had since becoming a starter again in 2022, and he led the NFL in times sacked this season, too. He’s on the decline, and the Raiders can’t rely on him to be their long-term guy.
Mendoza would obviously be inheriting a major work in progress with the Raiders’ offense, but it’s not like the cupboard’s entirely bare. Brock Bowers is already one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and Ashton Jeanty was a blue-chip prospect this past draft who started coming into his own late in the regular season. He’d have something to work with there.
New York Jets
In all honesty, the New York Jets losing in Week 18 is probably the best thing that could’ve happened for their offseason. They now hold the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, meaning they can get a starting-caliber quarterback without having to trade up for one. That said, if they view Mendoza as far and away the best QB in the class, they could make an offer.
There’s also no guarantee the Raiders take Mendoza first overall, either. Should they prefer another quarterback like Oregon’s Dante Moore or Alabama’s Ty Simpson, it could see Mendoza drop to No. 2 overall. Should that take place, he could end up at the top of the Jets’ board with that selection.
New York is also a pretty big work in progress. However, they have a pretty good, young offensive line highlighted by 2024 first-round pick Olu Fashanu and 2025 first-round pick Armand Membou. Garrett Wilson is a reliable top receiver, and tight end Mason Taylor had a solid rookie year in 2025.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals feel destined for a hard reset in the 2026 offseason. They fired head coach Jonathan Gannon on Black Monday after a disappointing 3-14 season, and they seem likely to move on from Kyler Murray through a release or a trade. They have the No. 3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which they could use on a replacement at QB.
Compared to the Raiders and Jets, the Cardinals have arguably the best placeholder option at quarterback in veteran Jacoby Brissett. Though you could win games with Brissett as your starter, he’s 33 years old and not enough of a difference-maker to be Arizona’s long-term option.
Should Mendoza end up with the Cardinals, he’d have an intriguing group of young weapons to work with. A strong argument could be made that Trey McBride is the best tight end in the NFL right now. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson are both solid starting receiver options, too. They’d need one more upgrade at right tackle and wide receiver to take that next level, but drafting Mendoza would be huge for Arizona’s offense.
Cleveland Browns
All things considered, the Cleveland Browns were better under Shedeur Sanders than they had any right to be. They went 3-4 in the seven games he started in 2025, and just 2-8 in the 10 games started by the likes of Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel. That could be enough to buy Sanders some time as the starter.
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That said, those wins weren’t so much a result of Sanders playing good football. He ended the year with seven passing touchdowns and ten interceptions, as well as a lackluster 56.6% completion percentage. With the No. 6 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Browns probably couldn’t find a better option at quarterback than him, but that doesn’t mean he’s the answer at the position.
Cleveland has two first-round picks in this year’s draft, and if they want to get bold, they could try to trade up for the superior quarterback in Mendoza. Thanks to a strong performance in the 2025 draft, the Browns would have some good, young weapons for him to work with, including running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
Miami Dolphins
With the No. 11 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it’s admittedly a long shot that the Miami Dolphins would naturally be in position to select Mendoza. If they offer up enough in a trade to move up, however, it’s something that could end up taking place.
The Dolphins have a talented group of weapons featuring Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and De’Von Achane. Poor offensive line play and inconsistent quarterbacking have held them back, but things are expected to improve under the new regime.
After benching Tua Tagovailoa near the end of the season, the Dolphins seem likely to pursue a new starting quarterback this offseason. Quinn Ewers showed some promise down the stretch, but Mendoza is simply a different breed of quarterback. There’s no telling what he could accomplish in Miami.
Fernando Mendoza’s Scouting Report
Fernando Mendoza could be the first overall pick. At 6’5″, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel.
He’s a crisp rotational and consistent aerial thrower who flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability. Even beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws.
There’s a definite degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down in order to minimize unnecessary risks and forced throws. Nevertheless, he has all the physical and mental tools to catalyze a rise as a franchise QB candidate.
