The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class is wide open for a wild card to take control, and the Indiana Hoosier’s Fernando Mendoza could be that wild card. After a breakout 2024 campaign at Cal, Mendoza is trending up, and it doesn’t take long to recognize his first-round tools.
What kind of case does Mendoza have for QB1 right now, and what more does he need to improve? We’ll touch on his evaluation with this film review.
Fernando Mendoza Rising From Anonymity To Contend for QB1
Mendoza could be what you call a late bloomer on the NFL Draft circuit. Everywhere he’s been — from Christopher Columbus High School to Berkeley — he’s had to wait for his opportunity.
Things will be different at Indiana, however, and it’s because of Mendoza’s 2024 play.
Mendoza grew up in Miami, Fla., as the grandson of Cuban immigrants. At Columbus High, he first received varsity playing time as a sophomore, but it wouldn’t be until the 2021-22 season (after the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign) that he put up his best numbers.
That year, Mendoza completed 107 of 169 attempts for 1,169 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions. It wasn’t world-beating production, but combined with his academics, it was enough to get on the radar for Ivy League programs Yale and the University of Pennsylvania.
Mendoza initially committed to Yale and was slated to play in the northeast when an opportunity to play Power Five football presented itself. He would decommit from Yale and join the California Golden Bears. And after redshirting the 2022 season behind Jack Plummer, he got his shot.
2023 was a tune-up year for the redshirt freshman. There were ups and downs, ultimately leading to Mendoza’s stark progression in 2024. With a year of play in Justin Wilcox’s system, things came easier for Mendoza, and his NFL potential started to shine through.
In 2024, Mendoza completed 265 of 386 attempts (68.7%) for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He was one of just seven FBS passers to throw for over 3,000 yards while completing at least 68% of passes.
From a three-star recruit to a four-star transfer, Mendoza switched to Indiana this past offseason. The move had multiple motivations, like joining Curt Cignetti’s upstart Hoosiers squad with lofty aspirations and playing with his younger brother Alberto. Still, his pro potential is at the forefront. With a good year, just how high can he rise?
Mendoza Deep Dive: Where Does the Indiana Transfer Make His Mark?
The eye test takes place first. And at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, with nimble mobility and a rocket arm, Mendoza assuredly passes the eye test.
When he’s asked to play in-rhythm and manage the quick game, you don’t always see the full dispersal of Mendoza’s tools. But when he can let it rip on tight-window throws and crossers, he has perhaps the most RPMs of any QB in the 2026 class.
The throw below is a perfect example. It’s a rifled laser to a crossing route off play-action. It reaches its target in stride without any delay and has the elite velocity to carry past the trailing defender, nullifying any chance of disruption.
Fernando Mendoza’s combination of anticipation, launch velocity, and layering ability can result in some pretty awesome throws. Love this laser on the crosser.
The ball explodes off his hand, and his arm elasticity / angle freedom adds even more dimensionality. pic.twitter.com/h1n7NolpGe
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) May 6, 2025
Mendoza’s arm strength and layering arm elasticity are the most prevalent parts of his physical profile. Still, at his prototypical size, he’s an able creator with a strong degree of creative instincts.
The play below is just one example of this. Working on a rollout, Mendoza pump-fakes to bait underneath defenders into triggering on the flat route. He then uses his fast feet to sidestep the rush, reset his base, and hit a 30-yard wheel route on a rope.
I don’t think Fernando Mendoza is a high-end creator, but he’s an instinctive and adaptable passer with great creative IQ.
Pump-fakes on the rollout to bait the DBs into reacting, uses his quick feet to sidestep the rush, then throws a 30-yard rope to the wheel WR. pic.twitter.com/keBq95fl1m
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) May 6, 2025
Mendoza is a passer first, and while he can operate off-platform and on the move, he’s best and most comfortable inside the pocket. Nevertheless, while his rushing production is minimal, he’s a surprisingly quick short-area athlete who flashes legitimate speed and burst as a runner when given the chance.
Okay, this is legit open-field speed from Fernando “Maserati” Mendoza. pic.twitter.com/tdQHGkdLTH
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) June 11, 2025
Mendoza has the necessary athleticism and arm talent to create off-script, which is a big plus for a passer of his size and build. His next evolution is to become more controlled and coordinated with that off-platform ability.
Already, Mendoza does a great job of maintaining presence as a thrower even when working on the move. Some QBs drop their eyes and are too quick to give up on plays, but Mendoza always stays alert, keeps his eyes up, and scans for opportunities on the scramble drill.
Of course, there’s a double edge to this sword. Mendoza is fleet-footed but can be frenetic and volatile. That volatility is compounded when working off-platform and can result in shoulder misalignment, which in turn can lead to imprecision. He’ll have to rein in his energy to improve this.
I like that Fernando Mendoza keeps his eyes up in various off-script situations and has great vision in that phase, but he needs to be more controlled on the move.
Incongruent, frenetic mechanics and unideal shoulder alignment can plague him there, causing imprecision. pic.twitter.com/9qLC6AUssO
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) June 11, 2025
Even in structure, there are moments where you see the reasons for optimism and the areas for improvement. Below is another very good example.
Here, Mendoza uses eye manipulation (an advanced trait) to displace the single-high safety. But his mind rushes ahead of his body. Being out of sync and overset, he just misses the post route.
Bittersweet rep here from Fernando Mendoza.
Effectively uses eye manipulation to displace the single-high safety. Just overcorrects a *bit* too far with his front-foot placement, forcing an unnatural adjustment from the post TE.
Incomplete, but good mental process. pic.twitter.com/262JJm7DQC
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) June 11, 2025
Mendoza is an exciting, albeit imperfect prospect at the moment. But one part of his game makes him an especially tantalizing talent: He’s tough, fearless, and can deliver in clutch moments like few others.
The Stanford game to close the season was perhaps the best representation of this. At one point, California was down by double-digits, and Mendoza was missing his fair share of throws. But down the stretch, he locked in and led them back when he needed to.
The fourth quarter of Mendoza’s Stanford performance featured anticipatory opposite-hash and outside-the-numbers lasers, and it culminated in his most impressive pass of the day, and one of his most impressive of the season: his game-winner on the doorstep of the red zone.
And then, of course, Fernando Mendoza’s game-winning TD against Stanford.
He sees the blitz coming, and knows he’s got a 1-on-1 on the boundary EZ post. With a rusher headed right for his ribcage, on a money down, he finds the perfect amount of pace and touch to convert. Icy. pic.twitter.com/qmUlvqIOWr
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) June 12, 2025
Mendoza’s game-winning TD against Stanford shows so much. You can see his quick recognition and processing against the blitz. You see his poise as a free rusher throttles him, yet he still manages to make the crucial throw. And you see his extraordinary layering ability, as he can place the ball where only his WR can reach.
Mendoza might be the most enthralling of all the unproven 2026 NFL Draft QB prospects. He quietly oozes natural talent, with quick-footed pocket mobility, sneaky rollout and open-field athleticism, and a lethal, high-velocity, angle-diverse arm.
Past the physical talent, Mendoza has also proven himself to be a quick processor, a poised pocket operator, a gutsy playmaker with fearless risk propensity, and an instinctive field creator who understands how to put defenders in a bind.
At times, it seems as though Mendoza thinks too fast and is too rushed, and volatility with his mechanical sync, precision, and decision-making can follow. But as he gets more live reps and settles in, that inconsistency should only wane.
Finding a way to control his play pace will be key in 2025, but if Mendoza can achieve that balance, he has the combined profile, physical talent, and mental acuity to be one of the 2026 class’s most complete passers and a verifiable QB1 candidate.