Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our early fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 12. We have more than enough in-season data and can play matchups based on reliable information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 12 running back start/sit plays.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet.
Kareem Hunt or Isiah Pacheco | KC (at CAR)
Start ‘Em
I am very confident in two things regarding the Kansas City Chiefs backfield. The first is that the Chiefs’ starting running back will smash this week. The second is that the instant Isiah Pacheco is ready to go, Kareem Hunt becomes completely useless in fantasy.
Pacheco returned to practice last week and is nearing a return. He’ll be back either this week or next.
My lean is the Chiefs opt to hold him out one more week on account of them playing in the Black Friday game in Week 13. If they activate Pacheco for Sunday, he would be playing in his first game since Week 2 with a short turnaround thereafter. The Chiefs do not need Pacheco to beat the Carolina Panthers, so I expect them to play it safe.
This would give fantasy managers one more week of Hunt. The interim RB1 has eaten volume for Kansas City but hasn’t done much with it. Hunt is averaging just 3.66 yards per carry. Outside of his flukey seven-reception outing against the Denver Broncos, he’s been a zero in the passing game.
For one more week, though, Hunt could be a viable fantasy starter. The Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have the second-worst defensive rush success rate in the league.
The Chiefs have a 47% neutral game script run rate. More importantly, they have a 60% positive game script (leading by 7+) run rate.
These are not your classic pass-happy Chiefs. Likely to lead throughout, this could be Hunt’s send-off game, where he sees 25 carries and runs all over Carolina. Whoever starts at RB for Kansas City this week needs to be in fantasy lineups.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. DAL)
Start ‘Em
This was written before Monday Night Football, so, as of the writing, I do not know how badly Joe Mixon torched the Dallas Cowboys on the ground. Regardless, this is a smash spot for Brian Robinson Jr.
The Washington Commanders’ RB1 returned last week after a two-game absence due to a strained hamstring. In a very weird game flow, Robinson still managed to score 14.2 fantasy points, carrying the ball 16 times for 63 yards and punching in a short touchdown.
With another 10 days to recover, Robinson should be a full go and is set up to smash a Cowboys defense that entered Monday night allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Commanders have a 49% neutral game script run rate, eighth-highest in the league. That ticks up to 56% in positive game script. I expect a whole lot of positive game script for Washington at home against one of the worst teams in football.
Bold prediction: Robinson scores three touchdowns this week.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (vs. BAL)
Sit ‘Em
Gus Edwards’ return hasn’t necessarily reduced J.K. Dobbins’ snap share (played 73% of the snaps against the Bengals on Sunday night), but it has reduced the latter’s volume.
Dobbins only carried the ball 11 times last week. He remained efficient, averaging 5.09 yards per carry, putting his season average at 4.78. However, he really salvaged his day with two touchdowns, both of which were sort of unexpected.
JK Dobbins played 73% of the Chargers snaps last night, a jump from his 67% snap share in Week 10 when Gus Edwards returned from injury. He did have just a 58% running back rush share (was around 75% without Edwards) and a season low 3% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
This week may be a Dobbins/Edwards revenge game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to exact much revenge. At least not themselves.
The Ravens are the ultimate pass-funnel defense. They are the second-worst team against the pass but allow the eighth-fewest fantasy ppg to RBs. If Dobbins doesn’t find the end zone, I suspect he won’t reach double-digit fantasy points.
You may not be able to bench him but don’t expect a ceiling game this week.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. MIN)
Sit ‘Em
It’s been a fantastic run over the past seven games for D’Andre Swift. After a dismal start to the season, Swift has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game since Week 4. He’s also enjoyed one of the softest schedules of RB defenses.
Now that’s about to change.
Swift’s remaining schedule is one of the most difficult in the NFL, and it starts this week against a Vikings defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points on average to running backs.
With the Bears struggling offensively and likely to trail against the Vikings, Swift’s best shot at production would be as a pass catcher. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really been used much as a receiver recently, with a total of three receptions over his last two games. Meanwhile, the Vikings surrender a mere 12% of their total receiving yards allowed to running backs.
If Swift is unable to find the end zone, his line could look very similar to how it did two weeks ago against the Patriots: 16 carries, 59 yards, one catch, six yards, 7.5 fantasy points. That’s not very beneficial for fantasy managers.