Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 13. This deep into the season, we know who each of these teams are, and that allows us to make informed decisions regarding matchups. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 13 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 13?
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (at MIN)
Last week was a perfect example of the problem with Kyler Murray. Every once in a while, it’s like he completely forgets how to play football.
Murray has mostly been very good this season (five games of 20+ fantasy points). Three of those games came between Weeks 7 and 10 and were against good pass defenses.
Of course, mixed in with that great stretch was a 4.76-point effort against the Chicago Bears. Last week, Murray managed 11.3 fantasy points against a below-average Seattle Seahawks defense.
So, why turn back to him this week? It’s a prime bounce-back spot.
The Minnesota Vikings allow the fifth-most passing yards per game and just surrendered 330 passing yards to Caleb Williams. Although Minnesota only allows the 19th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, those numbers are heavily skewed by games against Mac Jones and Joe Flacco. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford combined for six touchdowns against them.
Murray is a good bet to get back on track in what should be a high-scoring affair in Minnesota.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (at JAX)
2024 C.J. Stroud reminds me a lot of 2023 Trevor Lawrence. Rostered in 95% of Yahoo leagues, fantasy managers can’t seem to quit Stroud. Yet, looking at his game log, it’s hard to understand why he’s so heavily rostered.
Stroud threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans last week. His 17.68 fantasy points marked his best total since Week 6. He still has only one game of 20+ fantasy points, but that came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which is exactly who Stroud gets this week.
Jacksonville allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and allows opposing passers to complete throws downfield at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
This has all the makings of Stroud hitting Nico Collins over the top for a long touchdown. The Houston Texans should score at least four touchdowns this week. As long as Joe Mixon leaves two for Stroud, it should be a strong day for the Texans’ sophomore QB.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (at DAL)
On the one hand, it was really unfortunate to see Tyrone Tracy Jr. only manage 9.0 fantasy points in a plum matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ horrible run defense. On the other hand, his role and usage continue to be encouraging.
Had he not fumbled, Tracy easily could have scored 15+ fantasy points, resulting in his benching and Devin Singletary stealing a short touchdown. There is risk here that the New York Giants reduce Tracy’s workload due to fumbling in consecutive games. That would send an awful message to a young and talented player, especially in a lost season, but coaches have a thing about fumbling.
Regardless, Tracy should still see plenty of work, and the Dallas Cowboys allow the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs
Despite their upset victory over the Washington Commanders last week, the Cowboys are unlikely to force the Giants into negative game script, even with Tommy DeVito making another start. That should keep Tracy involved. I bet he scores this week.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LV)
I fully expect Isiah Pacheco to make his return on Friday against the Las Vegas Raiders. While it’s unlikely he is immediately given a heavy workload, I do expect him to immediately lead this backfield.
Kareem Hunt has not been good at filling in for Pacheco. He’s done the job because he’s reliable, and the Chiefs trust him. But he’s nowhere near as talented as Pacheco at this point in their respective careers.
The Raiders are not the worst run defense, but they do allow the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. At home, the Chiefs should see positive game script, allowing them to run the ball plenty. When they get near the goal line, look for Andy Reid to welcome Pacheco back by allowing him to score a short touchdown.
It won’t be 20 touches for Pacheco, and he probably won’t be an RB1. This is more to let fantasy managers know that if you have him, you can put him right back into lineups.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (at MIN)
It’s infuriating rostering Marvin Harrison Jr. and watching how the Arizona Cardinals use him. In a game where they couldn’t get anything going offensively, where James Conner was completely bottled up, Harrison saw a mere six targets.
More distressingly, he was thrown just a single quick slant, which he obviously cooked the defender and won.
For reasons I cannot comprehend, Harrison doesn’t get layup targets. It doesn’t make sense, given how good he’s been at winning against man coverage. So I ask, if not now, when?
The Vikings allow the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. A staggering 70% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to the position.
This game projects to be high scoring. The Vikings are excellent against the run, likely leading to a pass-centric game plan for the Cardinals.
This is the perfect spot for Harrison to absolutely smash. Will he? I sure hope so. All of the data points to it. I would go back to the Harrison well one more time.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. HOU)
Even if Trevor Lawrence isn’t able to return, Mac Jones proved before the bye week that he can at least get the ball to Brian Thomas Jr.
The talented rookie WR should finally be back to 100% after playing through a chest/rib injury for a couple of weeks. Thomas was just starting to get going again, catching five passes for 82 yards against the Detroit Lions.
This week, Thomas finds himself in an ideal spot for volume and efficiency. First, we have the fact that the Texans are a pass-funnel defense. They’re elite against the run but allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Second, the Jaguars being one of the worst teams in football should keep them trailing and, thus, throwing.
With Thomas firmly entrenched as Jacksonville’s WR1 and fully recovered after the week off, I think we get a big game from the rookie this week.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (at ATL)
With each passing week, I can’t help but wonder just how high Ladd McConkey will go in 2025 fantasy drafts. This is such a talented, young wide receiver. He’s so much fun to watch play.
McConkey is such a fundamentally sound player. He won’t blow anyone away with amazing athletic feats. He just gets open.
Over the past five weeks, he’s really started to improve, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game. Those are WR1 numbers. Most impressively, he’s done that without scoring in each of his last four games.
I have a feeling the rookie finds the end zone this week against a Falcons defense allowing a league-high 1.36 WR touchdowns per game. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career and this game has the potential to be high-scoring. Fire up McConkey with confidence.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints (vs. LAR)
Analyzing Taysom Hill as a start at tight end is the strangest thing. You don’t typically look to target poor opposing rush defenses when recommending tight ends to start.
We all saw what Saquon Barkley did to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. Obviously, Hill is not Barkley, but the Rams’ problems went far beyond him being really good at football.
The Rams are bottom 10 in rush defense success rate and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to RBs. With Hill acting as the New Orleans Saints’ de facto RB2 behind Alvin Kamara, he should see plenty of work in this one. Hill is a good bet to punch in a short touchdown, which is all he needs to post TE1 numbers.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (vs. IND)
It’s been a very solid season for Hunter Henry. The veteran has had a nice floor all season, scoring at least 9.4 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Perhaps this is the week he could have another ceiling game.
The Indianapolis Colts have been friendly to tight ends all season. They allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position, with about 22% of their total receiving yards allowed going to tight ends.
Henry has seen 17 targets over his last two games and at least eight targets in three of his last four.
Hunter Henry has hit at least a 20% target share in five of his last six games.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 25, 2024
With no clear WR1 on the team, Drake Maye has been reliant on Henry. This could be the week he scores his second touchdown of the season.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 13?
Jared Goff, QB, Chicago Bears (vs. CHI)
Last week, for just the second time all season and the first time since Week 2, Jared Goff failed to throw a touchdown pass. The Lions dispatched the Colts comfortably, scoring three touchdowns on the ground, as they do.
Yet, it was actually a very pass-heavy game for Detroit. Goff attempted 36 throws, his second most of the season. Nevertheless, in what was a favorable matchup, Goff did not come through for fantasy managers.
This week, the Lions get a Bears defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy ppg to quarterbacks. That includes Sam Darnold’s 330-yard, two-touchdown performance last week.
The bigger concern for Goff is that Chicago’s run defense has really fallen off, having allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game over their last three.
Even if David Montgomery can’t go, this shapes up to be a run-heavy script, which is bad news for Goff fantasy managers.
Of course, they are still the Lions. They’re going to score touchdowns. If those touchdowns happen to come through the air, Goff will get by for fantasy. However, I wouldn’t want to bank on it.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons (vs. LAC)
Overall, it’s been a very impressive rebound for Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles. Yet, he’s averaging a career-low 15.2 fantasy points per game.
Given the impression that Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons have a prolific passing attack, fantasy managers may be inclined to want to start him in a potential high-scoring affair against the Los Angeles Chargers.
I must advise caution.
Against the Bucs, Cousins has posted games of 35.36 and 28.64 fantasy points. Thus, against Tampa Bay, he’s the best fantasy QB in history.
Against everyone else, though, Cousins is averaging 11.4 fantasy ppg. When he’s not facing the Bucs, he’s the worst quarterback in fantasy.
Cousins will probably score more than 11.4 fantasy points this week. However, I still wouldn’t expect QB1 numbers against a defense allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. HOU)
At this point, we don’t yet know if Lawrence will return from his left shoulder injury. But when it comes to Travis Etienne Jr., I’m not sure I care.
Etienne was woefully inefficient last year, so his similarly poor efficiency this year shouldn’t be much of a surprise. He was entirely reliant on volume to produce in 2023. However, seeing Etienne go from a replacement-level plodder to one of the worst running backs in the NFL is not something I had on my bingo card.
Etienne’s -0.44 EPA per play is the worst in the league among qualified starting running backs. This week, he gets a Texans defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Jaguars will be underdogs and will likely be trailing. And when they do run, Etienne will likely have nowhere to go. He may be the starter, but Etienne belongs nowhere near fantasy lineups.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (at DET)
D’Andre Swift’s nightmare stretch of run defenses began last week against the Vikings. He ran the ball 13 times for 30 scoreless yards while catching three passes for 35 yards, scoring 9.5 fantasy points. It continues this week against a Lions defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Detroit isn’t really a pass-funnel defense, though. They’re a nothing funnel. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and shut down both the run and pass.
Fantasy managers hoping Swift might be able to salvage something through the air should be very concerned. Just 10% of the Lions’ total receiving yards allowed have gone to running backs. Unless Swift punches in a short TD, he’s likely in for another single-digit fantasy effort.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (at GB)
After two months of zero productivity — scoring double-digit fantasy points zero times in his last nine games — fantasy managers finally benched Jaylen Waddle last week. Of course, he posted not just his best game of the season, by far, but one of the best games of his entire career.
#Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle in Week 12:
– 91.1 overall grade
– 9 targets, 8 receptions, 144 yards, TD
– 7 first downs/TD
– 2 contested catchesBy far his best game of the season
🐧 🐧🐧#GoFins pic.twitter.com/gagyF7y4FO
— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) November 25, 2024
Waddle caught eight passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. He looked like the guy we all drafted at the 2/3 turn back in late August/early September.
So, is Waddle back? I say don’t fall for it.
The Miami Dolphins are still prioritizing Jonnu Smith way too much. This felt more like a random outburst from Waddle than a change in philosophy.
The Green Bay Packers have been very solid against the pass, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. About 60% of their total receiving yards allowed go to the position.
With the Packers being below average at defending pass-catching running backs and tight ends, this looks like a perfect spot for Mike McDaniel to draw up an offensive game plan that features passes to De’Von Achane and Smith.
Moreover, I need to see it again from Waddle before putting him back in the circle of trust.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, San Francisco 49ers (at BUF)
Remember when Brandon Aiyuk went down and the majority of the fantasy community anointed Deebo Samuel Sr. as a top-10 rest-of-season WR? Good times.
I’m not sure what’s wrong with Samuel, but he doesn’t look like the same player. And there certainly isn’t any effort on the part of his coaches to get him the ball.
Last week, Samuel had no carries for the first time all season. He saw a mere four targets, catching one for 21 yards. He also dropped two of them.
Something is not right here. How does a guy go from being one of the most explosive and dynamic players in the NFL to legitimately one of the worst wide receivers seemingly overnight?
Perhaps Samuels is not healthy. I don’t know. Regardless, he’s closer to being on the cut list than he is in fantasy lineups.
The Buffalo Bills allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, with just 58% of their total receiving yards allowed going to the position. The Bills have also allowed a league-high 22.4% of their total receiving yards to go to running backs, meaning this should be a heavy Christian McCaffrey day through the air.
Meanwhile, Jauan Jennings is locked in as the San Francisco 49ers’ WR1. So where does Samuel fit in? Simply put, he doesn’t.
Samuel is poised for another game of 1-2 receptions for 20-30 yards. If you get 5+ fantasy points, consider yourself lucky. He’s as far away from a fantasy starter as you can get.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at MIN)
Is this a bit of reverse point chasing after last week’s debacle? Maybe. But it’s not like I’m fading James Conner this week purely because he was bad last week. This is about the matchup.
It’s certainly not helping that Conner had his worst game in over a month against a mediocre Seahawks run defense last week. The veteran running back carried the ball seven times for eight yards. Yes. You read that correctly. If not for five dump offs, it would’ve been an unmitigated disaster for fantasy managers.
This week, Conner is on the road against a Vikings defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
If Conner can’t get going and can’t find the end zone, don’t look for a bail out in the receiving game again. Only five teams allow a lower percentage of their total receiving yards to go to running backs. This is shaping up to be another down week for Conner.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (vs. MIA)
When Jayden Reed dropped 33 points in Week 1, pretty much everyone assumed that would be his best game of the season. That’s turned out to be true so far. However, the expectation was certainly that Reed would have fewer down games than he’s had.
So far, Reed has given fantasy managers six games with fewer than 11.0 fantasy points, including four of his last five.
Despite clearly being a talented player, Reed’s volume has never been there. He has just one game all season with more than six targets. Over his last two games, he’s seen a combined five targets. That type of volume is untenable.
This week, Reed will have to contend with a Dolphins defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Fewer than 60% of their total receiving yards allowed has gone to the position. This is a tough spot for a player not seeing volume. Consider leaving Reed on benches this week.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears (at DET)
In a post-Shane Waldron world, Cole Kmet is once again a viable fantasy option. Last week, he played every single snap, running a route on 87% of Williams’ dropbacks. The inane split with Gerald Everett is gone.
While that’s great news for Kmet’s overall fantasy value, I caution managers against chasing last week’s production (seven receptions from 10 targets for 64 yards).
While we would all sign for that right now from any tight end, this week, Kmet gets a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position this year.
This is not the week to turn back to Kmet.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs. PHI)
At the time of this writing, I do not yet know what Mark Andrews did on Monday Night Football. However, my guess is not much.
Andrews’ quality stretch of performances from Weeks 5-10 hinged largely on touchdowns. Over that span, he failed to reach double-digit fantasy points twice — both games in which he did not score.
Andrews also benefited from the Baltimore Ravens being without Isaiah Likely for a game. When Likely plays, Andrews is mostly used as a blocker. He ran 28 routes against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 when Likely was out. Upon Likely’s Week 11 return, Andrews went back to running a mere 15 routes.
This week, even when Andrews does run a route, he’s probably not going to be targeted…or catch it. The Philadelphia Eagles allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. You may not have a choice, but Andrews is not an appealing option this week.