The most common question I get every year is “Who do I take in the first round?” After that, 80% of the texts I get are about the last few rounds. Let me be clear – I’m more than happy to help you build a fantasy football powerhouse at these spots in the draft, but what you do in the middle of those concerns will largely impact your standing in the end.
That said, the right late-round flier can put you over the edge, especially in a competitive league. These are my favorite deep sleepers for redraft in 2024 – options that aren’t being drafted in most formats. Even in the deep leagues in which they are of interest, it’s not hard to jump the line to take a well-calculated shot.
Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers 2024
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
If you want to win a bar bet, simply ask someone to name the two quarterbacks who, since 2020, have seen over 40% of their passing fantasy points come via the deep pass.
Jalen Hurts is one of the answers and that tracks. He threatens defenses in a variety of ways and has a pair of elite playmakers.
Based on the heading, you know that Derek Carr is the other. Of course, part of that is that he isn’t a high-volume passer, but the soft touch on those long throws is something that largely goes unnoticed. Over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field:
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are known quantities when it comes to home-run hitting — both of whom return and could be set for career years. But this is the part that has me interested in Superflex situations …
- 6’2” Cedrick Wilson Jr.
- 6’2” Marquez Callaway
- 6’5” A.T. Perry
Those are the next three receivers in my 2024 target projection for the Saints, and they’re all on the right side of 30 years old. Carr doesn’t go about accumulating fantasy points in the most exciting of fashions, but there is more potential than the public assumes. Sharp fantasy managers will take advantage of it.
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills
James Cook ranked 10th in touches at the RB position but 24th in red-zone touches, a ranking that is even more mind-blowing when you realize that the Bills ranked fifth in drives that landed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.
Davis isn’t generating a ton of “goal-line vulture” talk because Buffalo’s best asset in such situations sets up under center. But what if the drafting of him was in response to the new offensive coordinator admitting that the in-close usage for Josh Allen was a bit too much?
In 2023, Allen essentially doubled his career average for rushing touchdowns in a season. If he trends closer to his traditional mark, could Davis pick up the difference in a Joe Brady offense that had success last season?
I’m not calling it likely, but at his current ADP, I’m willing to gamble.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
What did we learn in 2023?
We re-learned how dangerous an offense with Lamar Jackson at the helm can be and we saw Todd Monken optimize this situation.
With Jackson still in his prime and Monken having a full season of data to digest, this is an offense worth getting exposure to however you can. Derrick Henry came in from Tennessee this offseason and will hold the elite role that we’ve seen for so long.
The industry is well aware of that and The King is being drafted in the second round as a result. It’s impossible to not project him for a big season — and he’s a fine pick — but he is still a one-dimensional back with over 2,300 professional touches on his resume. As the kids say, he is “built different.” I’m not saying that’s wrong, but a free bet on Father Time is also something that has my attention.
None of us think that Gus Edwards is anything special talent-wise, and yet, the Ravens ranked sixth in non-QB rush EPA last season. I credit the mobility of Jackson and the creativity of Monken for that ranking, a situation I’m looking to invest in if I can.
Keaton Mitchell looked explosive in his opportunities last year, but with a Week 15 torn ACL, he won’t be active to open this season. That leaves a versatile back in Hill (20.7% of his career touches have come through the air) as the clear RB2 and one that would give options to this offense that don’t exist with Henry.
If it costs nothing to bet on a creative offensive mind and against a veteran running back with that sort of career usage, I’m doing it. Baltimore opens the season playing in 13 straight weeks, increasing the odds of Henry missing time before Mitchell returns to action.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The 6’2” Wilson averaged 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie and seems to be the forgotten man as the industry as a whole pencils the Cardinals in for a significant step forward offensively.
Michael Wilson with a multi-TD game! @mikewilllyy
📺: #AZvsSF on FOX⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Jq9JHUeqb6 pic.twitter.com/wC6DsDPRg0
— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2023
There’s no question that Wilson’s ceiling is the third option in the passing game, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride as the alphas. However, if Arizona’s offense takes off the way we believe it can, an athletic third option could sneak into Flex radars by way of the big play.
Why do I say that? We saw Jordan Addison produce fantasy viable numbers in a similar situation with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson demanding targets. Jameson Williams and Xavier Worthy fly off of draft boards earlier in every room I enter – how different are those situations?
Asking for consistent production is a bit optimistic, but 4-6 targets regularly could easily happen. Wilson’s profile puts him in a position to make plays if given that level of opportunity.
Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders
The last name alone puts this rookie on radars, and I think it’s warranted. The Rice product displayed strong YAC skills that could translate to the professional level sooner rather than later.
The idea behind promoting him in this space is tied to the unknown hierarchy in Washington. After Terry McLaurin, it’s unclear where the targets are going to go; thus, any injury ahead of him adds a level of clarity.
MORE: 2024 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
Adding McCaffrey after Week 1 on the cheap should he post an encouraging route count is the play in average leagues, whereas stashing him in the final round of deeper formats makes sense to secure his services. We all like the promise that Jayden Daniels brings to this offense — that means this team will be in a position to put points on the board.
Last season, mobile quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray posted an average ranking of 20th in deep passer rating. That same trio ranked sixth on short passes, proving that defenses continue to try to prevent the big play and give up high-percentage underneath targets. Assuming Daniels follows a similar trajectory, McCaffrey could be a PPR asset if his path to consistent looks clears up a bit.
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