Chris Gotterup now has two wins this season and is up to the fifth-ranked golfer in the world. DFS managers are going to have to pay up in a significant way as we enter the signature event portion of the season.
Should you remain interested, or is this a dramatic flash in the pan?
WM Phoenix Open: What Worked and Can Stick
Let’s start at the top of the board with the winner. Chris Gotterup has appeared in three events this season and has, in total, lost strokes to the field with the putter.
The man has two wins.
His tee-to-green game is in better form than any golfer on the planet right now, and while an explosion like this is going to be impossible to sustain, it hasn’t come out of nowhere.
In 2024, Gotterup was a slight negative tee-to-green (-0.06 per round), but he broke out to a degree last season (+0.64). That’s a huge gain and resulted in him finishing in the top 30 for the majority of his events and posting four top 10s.
He overachieved last season and is cruising now. The ball speed and touch with the irons makes him a high-floor option, but the driver can still be crooked at times, and the flat stick profiles as a problem (49th in the field this past week).
DFS fantasy managers tend to pivot off of recent winners who are playing over their heads. That tracks and will likely be the case here. He’s not going to win two of every three events because no one succeeds at that level in this sport, but I do buy what he is largely selling, and if there’s a push to avoid him in these loaded fields, I won’t hesitate to go back.
Some things don’t change. It was Gotterup and Hideki Matsuyama in the playoff, and they were both top three in approaches and around the green for the week. We know that putting is the least predictive stat, but putting yourself in a position to run hot is a big first step, and these two did that as well as anyone.
The day-to-day swings are another something to keep in the back of your mind: you don’t need to roster the best golfer for each day, rather the best golfer for four rounds. It may sound like splitting hairs, but that is how I landed on Si Woo Kim (T-3) last week as my one-and-done.
Birdie makers are going to have swings, but if they fit the course and can spike, you’re going to be in the mix. Gotterup went 63-71-70-64, Scottie Scheffler posted a 73-65-67-64 line, and Kim 73-62-66-68.
Golf in 2026 is a scorer’s game, and I’m going to continue to prioritize upside over a Harris English type (WM Phoenix Open: 70-69-70-68).
Key DFS Lessons From the 2026 WM Phoenix Open
Through Saturday, Matsuyama held a one-shot lead over four and had four other chasers just two off the pace. Three of the four that were nipping at his heels were better than him in Round 3, but he battled on Sunday and had a chance to win.
He bogeys No. 18, rinses a ball on the playoff hole, and walks away with a runner-up.
The lesson here is that pedigree can only get you so far. Matsuyama had more name value than anyone within shouting distance, but he was 70th off the tee for the week, and that’s hard for anyone to overcome.
One thing I think I can get better about is placing value in consistency. Total stats will tell you one story, but in the prediction business, I’m worried about what is most likely to happen. Over their past 20 rounds, pre-WM Phoenix Open, Jake Knapp, Scheffler, Gotterup, and Kim were all top 10 in terms of percentage of rounds in which they gained ground on the field off the tee.
- Gotterup (winner)
- Scheffler (T-3)
- Kim (T-3)
- Knapp (8th)
The stats in which we value highest will change from week to week (stay tuned tomorrow for the AT&T Pebble Beach breakdown!), but this week was a good reminder that it’s important to take a step back and trust the proven skill sets.
From a player-takes angle, I think we can agree that this is a form-over-pedigree sport. Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka have strong career resumes. They might be serious assets with time, but trying to get ahead of the comeback is dangerous at best.
Reckless at worst.
All three of those golfers missed the cut this past week, and I’m more willing than ever to be late on them regaining the potential we assume them to have than early.
We are onto an elevated event this week. Lots of money on the table, some warmup rounds under the belts of the game’s best, and an opportunity for the elite to separate themselves from the field.
But will they? Or are we destined to get another chaotic leaderboard for the weekend?
