After a strong rookie showing, Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers was poised to take a step forward in his sophomore season. While far from disappointing, he mostly stayed the same. As the clear WR1 for the Ravens, should fantasy football managers bank on an old-school year three breakout?
Zay Flowers Fantasy Outlook
Flowers immediately burst onto the scene as a rookie, hauling in nine passes for 78 yards in his first career game. Unfortunately, that hot start cooled off quickly, and he’s yet to show the ability to produce at a high level consistently.
Flowers averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie. With 858 receiving yards, he found himself in a class of rookie receivers that typically end up being very successful long-term, albeit not quite elite.
Zay Flowers pic.twitter.com/LNOKfx1Jvs
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 19, 2025
Flowers was widely expected to improve in his second season. And while I would not consider 12.3 PPG a step back, it certainly wasn’t progression. He remained essentially the same guy.
Flowers did increase his efficiency, catching three fewer passes than he did as a rookie, but amassing 201 more receiving yards. His target share remained about the same (24.4% to 25.7%). Where he saw improvement was in his ability to command targets when running routes, earning one 25.6% of the time compared to 21.1% as a rookie. He averaged 1.67 yards per route run in 2023. That bumped up to 2.34 in 2024.
Overall, Flowers is a talented receiver with the upside to be a WR2 in fantasy. I’m just not sure what we should expect to change this year.
The Ravens’ Offense Is Largely the Same
There’s a lot of turnover in the NFL. Teams change quickly. An offense can completely overhaul in just a couple of years. That’s not the case with the Ravens, though.
The addition of Derrick Henry last year helped relieve a lot of pressure on Lamar Jackson, but this team’s overall identity didn’t change.
The Ravens ran the ball 47% of the time in neutral game script in 2023. That was 50% last year. They’re always near the top of the league in run rate. As a result, the opportunities for a guy like Flowers on a 25% target share are not the same as they would be on an offense that throws more.
Flowers and Rashod Bateman are back as the top two receivers. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will share the TE role. The only main addition was DeAndre Hopkins, who is nothing more than a role player at this point in his career.
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Flowers’ WR25 ADP is baking in a significant leap forward that I just don’t think we can project.
I will always endorse drafting young players whose best seasons are in front of them, but nothing in fantasy is purely black and white. There needs to be a reasonable path to significant improvement. Flowers is a safe selection who won’t fail you, but I don’t see a difference-maker here.
Cameron Sheath‘s Zay Flowers Projection
Zay Flowers’ role in Baltimore’s offense looks pretty much set after two years in the league. Flowers is the undisputed WR1 for a future Hall of Fame quarterback, but is also the second-choice pass-catcher for a run-heavy offense, and is not a consistent end zone threat. The lack of touchdown upside limits Flowers’ ceiling in fantasy. With Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, and now DeAndre Hopkins likely ahead of him in that area, that isn’t likely to change any time soon.
The former Boston College standout did record over 1,000 receiving yards in 2024, which shows progression, but he is still a player that many can happily pass on in fantasy. None of that is down to talent, but the offensive environment in Baltimore severely limits what he can offer.
Mark Andrews should be back to his best after struggling early last season following a significant injury layoff. Hopkins will be a peripheral figure in the offense, but will get his share of targets, and RB Keaton Mitchell is healthy again and will be a regular receiving threat.
Lamar Jackson’s 41 passing touchdowns from last year are also likely to regress, offering fewer scoring opportunities for his receivers. Flowers would arguably be a top-15 receiver on a different team, but is currently being drafted as the WR27, with higher-upside receivers being taken after him.
