The running back position is typically dominated by youth. The overwhelming majority of top fantasy football seasons come from backs around ages 22-26, or in their first 4-5 years in the league.
Last year, though, we saw sustained success from RBs at the age we typically see significant decline. In 2025, those backs are still at the forefront, along with others who are now another year older. Should fantasy managers once again be willing to invest in aging running backs?
Running Backs Age 29+ in 2024
Last year, 12 running backs age 29 or older were on fantasy rosters at some point during the season. Since no one really expected anything useful from Jamaal Williams, Dare Ogunbowale, or Ezekiel Elliott, I will remove them from the sample size.
That gives us nine players. Of those nine running backs, here is what fantasy managers got.
- Elite RB1s: 2
- Borderline RB1: 1
- RB2: 1
- Situational Flex play: 3
Derrick Henry was well worth a second-round pick. Alvin Kamara and James Conner were two of the best values in fantasy football. Aaron Jones was a little better than his ADP suggested. Kareem Hunt had a stretch as a weekly RB2. Austin Ekeler had several usable weeks. Ameer Abdullah was a free agent pickup for a couple of solid weeks. Only Gus Edwards and Raheem Mostert were not helpful the entire season.
To simplify things, we had four highly productive backs age 29 or older.
Historical Success Of Age 29+ Running Backs
If we go way back to the era of football dominated by running backs, we’ll be able to find plenty of guys who were very productive as they pushed 30. However, the focus has to be on the modern NFL, the version of the NFL that throws more and implements running back committees.
Age 29+ Running Backs Who Averaged At Least 14 ppg By Year
- 2023: 2
- 2022: 0
- 2021: 0 (no one even got to 10 ppg)
- 2020: 0
- 2019: 1
- 2018: 0
- 2017: 1
- 2016: 1 (plus two at 13 ppg)
- 2015: 4
- 2014: 0 (plus one at 13 ppg and one at 12 ppg)
- 2013: 1 (plus two at 12 ppg)
- 2012: 3 (plus one at 12 ppg)
- 2011: 2
- 2010: 1
As you can see, when we go back to the early 2010s, we start to get more names that stem from the era of RB dominance. But even going back 15 years, we’ve never seen a season with four running backs surpassing 14 ppg. Prior to 2024, we had four in the previous seven seasons combined.
What Happened In 2024?
How do we explain the anomaly that was old running backs in 2024? The answer is the vaunted 2017 running back draft class, the greatest of all time.
Three backs averaging 14+ ppg were from that class (Kamara, Jones, Conner). Henry was from 2016, but he is a unicorn. The combination of those four gave us the greatest season for age 29+ running backs in recent history.
Can These Aging Backs Continue Their Success in 2025?
The all-important question for fantasy managers is: What do we do now? All four running backs to reach 14 ppg in 2024 are going inside the top 24 RBs this year. All of them were at the age of decline last season. All of them bucked the trend. The fantasy community is asking them to do it again.
Furthermore, we have new running backs entering their age-29 seasons in 2025. Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey are both 29 this year. They are also well inside the top 24 running backs. That’s six of the top 24 running backs at least 29 years old — 25%.
Are there any historical trends that can help us identify how many of these running backs will continue their success this year? Unfortunately, no.
Talent is a significant factor in whether running backs will succeed at an advanced age. These are all talented running backs. But it’s not like we can say first-round backs are likelier to play at a high level longer. McCaffrey is the only member of the six age 29+ RBs who is a former first-rounder. Mixon and Henry went in Round 2. Conner and Kamara were Round 3 picks. Jones was a fifth-round selection.
The best way to evaluate older running backs is to look for signs of decline. There were signs before the cliff hit their contemporaries like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette. All three saw their efficiency drop, as well as a moderate reduction in fantasy ppg, before the bottom completely fell out.
Going back a little further, we saw the same thing happen with Melvin Gordon, Matt Forte, and Le’Veon Bell. Let’s see how the 2025 six stack up.
Christian McCaffrey
There’s nothing to assess with McCaffrey’s 2024 season. He barely played. A preseason calf injury and Achilles tendinitis cost him the first nine weeks of the season. After returning, he looked like his usual elite self before a Week 13 PCL sprain ended his season. He played in four games.
At 29 years old, there’s no evidence of a decline in ability. The only concern with McCaffrey is whether he can stay healthy.
By all accounts, he’s fully recovered from all of last year’s issues. That doesn’t mean new ones won’t pop up. But when he’s on the field, McCaffrey should be his usual 20+ ppg self.
Joe Mixon
Mixon has been consistent his entire career, averaging between 14.1 and 17.4 ppg each of the past seven seasons. Six of those have seen him average at least 15.7 ppg.
Last year, Mixon looked like the guy he’d been for the past decade. He averaged 17.2 ppg, his highest average since 2021, and his efficiency was right in line with his career averages.
With the Texans not dedicating significant draft capital to the running back position, nor signing anyone of note in free agency outside of arguably Nick Chubb, this will again be Mixon’s backfield. I would not be fading Mixon due to age concerns.
Derrick Henry
We should not compare Henry to other humans. He is built differently.
Henry did show what could have been interpreted as signs of decline in 2023, but last year proved his reduced efficiency and productivity were due to the Titans’ horrible offense. Henry had the most efficient season of his career on an elite offense in Baltimore. He set highs in yards per carry (5.9), touchdowns (18), and most importantly, fantasy points per game (19.8).
I don’t know who needs to see this today, but here’s every Derrick Henry touchdown from his first season in a Baltimore Ravens uniform! pic.twitter.com/jERcNC4T8Q
— Nic Mason (@British_Raven19) May 22, 2025
The last time we saw a running back post RB1-caliber numbers (16+ ppg) at age 31 or older was Tiki Barber in 2006. I am confident that Henry is not done and can be the next to do it.
Alvin Kamara
Early in his career, Kamara was Jamaal Charles-level efficient. From 2017 to 2020, he averaged no worse than 4.6 ypc in any season. Since then, the best he’s done was last year at 4.2 ypc.
While Kamara is obviously not the same player he was when he was younger, there’s still no reason to doubt his ability to repeat as a strong fantasy asset. He averaged 19.0 ppg last season, mainly due to leading the league in target share at 21.5%.
That’s the thing with Kamara; he relies heavily on receiving work that works to his benefit. Typically, receiving backs age better than pure runners because receiving ability does not decline at the same rate.
The Saints are probably going to be very bad this year. That reduces Kamara’s touchdown upside, but should result in a bunch of checkdowns again.
If the potential for the Saints to be the worst offense in the league scares you away from Kamara, that’s perfectly acceptable. Just don’t fade him solely because he turned 30.
James Conner
One player I did not shy away from last year was Conner. It’s ironic because I was hyper-critical of Conner earlier in his career, not buying him as an NFL-caliber running back. He certainly proved me wrong.
Conner gets knocked for his durability, but it’s a bit unfair. Yes, he is guaranteed not to play 17 games, but how many running backs really are?
Since 2020, Conner has played at least 13 games every season. I don’t know about you, but I would sign for a guaranteed 13 games from every running back I draft every season.
Conner has been remarkably consistent for the past three years, averaging between 15.4 and 15.9 ppg. There’s zero evidence of any decline. The past two seasons have been the best of his career from a ypc standpoint.
The Cardinals like Conner. Despite drafting Trey Benson in the third round last year, they committed to Conner as their lead back. I don’t see anything changing this year. At age 30, Conner is becoming a value once again.
Aaron Jones
The days of Jones averaging 18+ ppg are long gone. The best we can hope for is a repeat of last year’s 14.2 ppg. But that was a step up from his 12.3 from the previous season.
I was hesitant to buy into Jones last year. While he proved me wrong, I am a bit hesitant once again.
Jones is another back who relies heavily on receiving, which gives him a nice floor. The problem is that he is explosive and speed-dominant as a runner. His skills are the type that typically don’t last through age 30.
Jones did manage 4.5 ypc last year, but that number marked a career low. He got by most only raw volume, earning a career-high 255 carries.
The Vikings do not want to overwork their 30-year-old back. They didn’t have much choice last year, as Ty Chandler and Cam Akers weren’t getting it done behind him. That prompted the Vikings to make RB2 a priority, trading for former 49ers RB Jordan Mason.
I fully expect much more of a timeshare this season. Jones’ 69.2% opportunity share seems sure to drop. This projects to be closer to 55-45, with Mason the favorite for goal-line work.
Add in the fact that Jones, while not missing a game last year, did suffer hamstring and rib injuries, and we may have been looking at the beginnings of his body breaking down. I hate predicting injury, but age-related injuries are easier to predict. I don’t anticipate drafting much Jones this season.
