Mark Andrews’ fantasy stock is plummeting among PFSN users, with nearly three-quarters of trades involving him resulting in managers shipping him out.
Despite Isaiah Likely’s fractured foot potentially keeping him sidelined through Week 1, fantasy managers aren’t buying into the temporary opportunity that should boost Andrews’ value heading into the season.
The Touchdown Regression Concern
The alarm bells should be ringing for Andrews managers when examining his 2024 production. His career-high 20% touchdown rate on receptions was the primary driver of his fantasy relevance last season, representing a significant spike from his 13.3% rate in Todd Monken’s first year as offensive coordinator and just 6.8% in 2022.
This dramatic increase in touchdown efficiency masked underlying concerns about his role in Baltimore’s evolving offense. Touchdown rates are notoriously volatile year-to-year, and despite Andrews leading the league with 11 touchdowns, his 2024 spike appears unsustainable when viewed against his career norms. In comparison to other tight ends in the league, 13 caught more passes and 19 saw more targets last season.
Smart fantasy managers recognize that banking on lightning-in-a-bottle scoring rates is a recipe for disappointment, particularly in a run-heavy Ravens attack where red zone opportunities may be limited.
Mark Andrews TOUCHDOWN.
41st in his career (t-most in Ravens history)
📺: #WASvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/x2mP54pgyM— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
The Likely Factor Changes Everything
While Likely’s fractured foot provides temporary relief for Andrews’ target share, the long-term outlook remains concerning. ESPN’s recent survey of executives, coaches, and scouts revealed both Likely and Andrews among the top-8 tight ends league-wide, highlighting just how legitimate the competition has become.
This isn’t simply about a backup pushing for playing time. Likely has emerged as a genuine threat to Andrews’ role security, something that was evident even before the injury. The Ravens have shown they’re willing to utilize two-tight end sets extensively, but in an offense that prioritizes the running game, there may not be enough passing volume to sustain two fantasy-relevant tight ends consistently. There wasn’t last season.
The PFSN user behavior tells the real story here. These aren’t casual fantasy players making emotional decisions. They’re informed managers who recognize that Andrews’ current draft position doesn’t account for the risk factors building around him.
When nearly 75% of trades involving a player result in him being moved off rosters, according to PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, it signals a clear market inefficiency that the broader fantasy community hasn’t yet recognized.
Baltimore’s Offensive Evolution
Monken’s offense has undergone significant changes since his arrival, and not all of them favor Andrews’ fantasy prospects. The Ravens’ commitment to establishing Lamar Jackson as a more traditional pocket passer has coincided with increased competition for targets among pass catchers.
Andrews no longer enjoys the target monopoly he once held at the position. The emergence of young receivers and the continued development of Likely have created a more distributed passing attack. In a run-first system, this distribution becomes particularly problematic for fantasy purposes, as there simply aren’t enough weekly targets to go around.
The injury to Likely may temporarily mask these concerns, but astute fantasy managers are looking beyond Week 1. They recognize that Andrews’ window of elite production may be closing faster than his current ADP suggests.
The Smart Play
PFSN users are making the right call by moving Andrews while his perceived value remains inflated due to the Likely injury. His 2024 touchdown rate was an outlier that propped up otherwise concerning underlying metrics, and the long-term threat of losing targets to a healthy Likely once he returns makes his current draft position untenable.
Fantasy success often comes from recognizing trends before they become obvious to the broader market. The mass exodus of Andrews from PFSN rosters represents exactly this type of forward-thinking approach.
While other managers chase last year’s production and get excited about a temporary injury to the competition, smart players are already positioning themselves for the more likely scenario where Andrews’ role continues to diminish in Baltimore’s evolving offense.
The writing is on the wall for Andrews’ fantasy relevance, and the most informed managers are already reading it clearly.
