The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Carson Wentz, QB
I’m not the least bit confident we know anything more about Carson Wentz today than we did a week ago, and that makes him a player you don’t need to concern yourself with in single-QB leagues.
Sure, the opening drive against the Bengals over the weekend was impressive (3-of-4 for 29 yards, including a 12-yard score to Josh Oliver). But this game got out of hand so quickly, courtesy of the Vikings’ defense, that there was really no evaluation to take place.
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He featured his two primary pass catchers, T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson, which is a net positive for all involved moving forward. But with Jordan Addison returning this week, I’m not entirely sure what the target distribution will look like.
Wentz did enough to keep me playing my Vikings as I normally would, which means zero exposure to the quarterback position in standard formats.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
A Week 2 high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up against the Falcons.
I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.
Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.
This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2025.
The Vikings will continue to bet on 32-year-old Wentz to steady the ship for now, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
We saw what was at risk from Aaron Jones Sr. taking almost a 2024 Jaylen Warren role to Jordan Mason’s Najee Harris in Week 2, so given that the former Packer is on injured reserve for at least another three weeks, it saved you from yourself.
It’s human nature.
When we spend something meaningful, we take an overly optimistic view of it when asked to evaluate it. Jones cost you a sixth-round pick this summer, so you were naturally more likely to look at his Week 1 usage as optimistic, citing the downfield routes as a path to rare upside.
In theory, those routes offer something that few running backs have access to, but if they aren’t complemented by the stuff that every running back has access to, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.
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Jones is a 30-year-old back with more than 1,700 touches on his NFL resume. The truth of the matter is that an injury was a real risk, and with a fading role, he may never return to an RB2 range this season.
You’re holding tight, but that’s more because you really don’t have a choice. He wasn’t involved much before the injury, and that tanked any trade value he could have had.
Jordan Mason, RB
Sorry, Jones, but your days of being a lead back are over for this season.
He’ll return eventually, but if we get more performances from Mason like what he put on tape against the Bengals last weekend, it’ll be as a secondary piece.
Minnesota won this game by 38 points, so there is a level of context that needs to be given, but Mason cashed in two carries inside the five-yard line on his way to a 16-116-2 final stat line.
The zero target is a pain and likely to be a limiting factor moving forward, but the rushing metrics suggest that he’s the rare exception that should be locked into lineups without a second thought as long as Jones is on the shelf.
There have been 49 instances this season in which a running back carried the ball 15 times, and Mason’s Week 3 performance leads the way in terms of percentage of carries that were better than league average in terms of yards gained before contact.
That’s a mouthful of a stat, but it points to something very simple: he and the offensive line are in sync.
Not every week is going to be that easy, but the Vikings draw a Steelers defense that gave up 182 yards with 3 TDs on the ground to the Jets in Week 1 and 105 yards with a score to Kenneth Walker III in a Week 2 loss to the Seahawks.
They slowed New England on Sunday, but part of the reason was the Patriots’ inability to hold onto the ball.
Mason averages 16.5 PPR points per game for his career when he exceeds 15 touches, and I like him to make good on that abroad this week. Sign me up for Mason as a top-15 RB in Week 4. Make sure your lineup is set before you go to bed on Saturday if you plan on sleeping in Sunday morning!
Adam Thielen, WR
It was a heart-warming story late this summer when Adam Thielen came home to Minnesota for what figures to be his swan song (he turned 35 years old in August).
Sadly, we are being reminded that “heart-warming” and “fantasy fulfilling” are not the same thing. Thielen has managed to turn his six targets this season into just 26 yards and is coming off his second catchless game of the season.
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The veteran never had much upside in this offense, and he could be played off the field outright with Addison returning from suspension this week.
Hopefully, Thielen hasn’t been eating up a spot on your roster, but if he’s been lingering, you shouldn’t think twice about making a move. Any move, really.
Jordan Addison, WR
Addison is back after having served a three-game suspension to open the season. Simple math had him projected for regression this season, as even the best this game has ever seen struggle to score on 14.3% of their receptions, Addison’s rate through two years.
Now, we have a backup quarterback situation to muddy the waters.
Jones’s sideline for at least the next three weeks should help stabilize Addison’s target share, but the value of those looks is questionable; this is a tough sell.
If you’re hurting for healthy options, I can understand going this direction in a flex situation. As a rookie, he scored in each of his first two games, and in his second game of last season, he found paydirt twice. In rostering Addison, you understand that you’re chasing a score, which naturally comes with risk in this Wentz world.
I’m taking a wait-and-see approach if at all possible.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Getting 12.5 PPR points from your first-round pick isn’t exactly what you’re looking for in a favorable matchup, but I don’t think Jefferson managers can really complain about the final stat line.
Isaiah Rodgers scored a pair of defensive touchdowns, which skewed the way this game was called. Personally, I’m reading more into the 29.2% target share from last week than the pedestrian stat line against a vulnerable defense.
We’ve seen Jefferson produce video game numbers with a variety of QBs, so I’m not concerned about that front. We will see what the target distribution looks like as Addison returns to action. But again, we have more than enough evidence that Minnesota’s WR1 is going to earn his looks regardless.
I have Jefferson ranked as my WR5 for Week 4 as he takes on a Steelers defense that has already seen Garrett Wilson post a 7-95-1 line and the Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Cooper Kupp tandem combine for 15 catches and 193 yards.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
All plays count the same, but Hockenson managers have to feel awfully fortunate with the way that Sunday ran out.
With the Vikings up by 38 points, Hock came up clutch with a five-yard TD to remove all doubt.
Without that catch, he’s not a top-15 performer for the week, but with it, top-5. That’s the nature of the position and exactly why I’d be looking to sell Hockenson today if at all possible.
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The Sunday blowout means we have no idea what this pass game looks like in terms of target distribution. McCarthy’s recovery timetable remains fluid, and Addison is eligible to return this week.
In essence, you got lucky to get the production you did over the weekend, and that inflated stat line, along with name value, puts you in a position to cash in a chip if you want to.
Is Hockenson a weekly starter?
Probably.
Is he much better than Hunter Henry or Brent Strange?
For my money, no. Hockenson isn’t a bad option, but if you can deal with him in the name of improving the depth of your team elsewhere and bank on piecing together the TE position, I think I would.
