The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
J.J. McCarthy is not an NFL-level starting quarterback right now.
Fantasy managers and the Minnesota Vikings alike would love for him to be, but he’s not. At the moment, he can’t keep his top target fed (22-of-43 with five interceptions when throwing in the direction of Justin Jefferson) and isn’t a threat to stretch the field at all.
When Throwing Past The Sticks
- Weeks 1-2: 61.1% completion percentage, 101.6 passer rating
- Weeks 9-11: 31.3% completion percentage, 22.1 passer rating
I understand that the Green Bay defense hasn’t been as consistent as projected, but this is still a talented group, and we haven’t been given any reason to believe that McCarthy can string together 30 consecutive good minutes, forget about 60.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
I was wrong about this backfield, and there’s no point in being stubborn: Aaron Jones is the guy that Minnesota trusts and the one they are going to funnel their offense through in terms of this backfield.
He held a 9-1 touch edge over Jordan Mason in the first quarter last week, and I think he’s largely looked spry when available this season.
Like everyone in this offense, there are efficiency issues in the pass game (six catches on 12 targets over the past two weeks, a catch rate that is unacceptable for a running back, given where those targets come on the field). Still, the usage is there, and that’s enough to get him into the RB2 mix this time of year.
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The Packers can be stingy on defense, but they are a below-average red-zone defense and have the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, which isn’t surprising if the plan is to get the ball out quickly.
I don’t think Jones breaks the slate in this revenge game, but 15+ touches and some scoring equity are all we need to justify starting him in all formats.
Jordan Mason, RB
I truly thought Jordan Mason had a chance to own this backfield and that the early-season injury to Aaron Jones would open that opportunity. But it’s clear the Vikings want the veteran presence at running back next to their developmental quarterback, thus relegating Mason to handcuff duties and nothing more.
Against the Bears last week, Jones was on the field for two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and Mason checked in at 16.7% (the fantasy Gods don’t care about C.J. Ham’s 27.8% snap share, but those were six routes that come off the plate of these two).
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Mason was able to reach double-digit fantasy points on the back of a single drive. Minnesota’s first drive of the fourth quarter came on a short field that Mason quickly turned into 24 rushing yards and a score. But considering that he had just 19 rushing yards prior, he was effectively scripted out and simply cashed in on his one chance to do so.
Good for him, but not predictive.
Even if you think that this backfield trends closer to a committee with time, Jones is the preferred option in the pass game, and the Vikes are a near touchdown underdog. Mason is rosterable because depth at the position is tough to find, but he’s not on the flex radar this week in any format.
Jordan Addison, WR
Justin Jefferson’s struggles and discontent with what is going on in this passing game grab the headlines, but let’s not act like Jordan Addison is having himself a good time.
He’s earning targets, but much like Jefferson, they are largely empty with JJ McCarthy spraying the ball all over the place. Addison has caught five of 18 targets over the past two weeks, and while he bailed you out with the short touchdown against the Bears, this is a thin profile at best.
Now, there was a drop from Addison that was going to be a chunk play at worst and had the potential to turn into a 61-yard score, so he wasn’t far from this write-up having an awfully different spin. That said, he didn’t make the play.
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Half of his targets in those two games have come 15+ yards downfield, and I wonder if Kevin O’Connell tries to get his young QB on track with layup targets before asking him to look vertical.
If that’s the case, Jefferson figures to get fed at a high rate, but I’m not sure the same would apply for Addison. This week, he grades as an awfully risky flex play that I’m putting in the same range as Xavier Worthy/Alec Pierce, two boom/bust types who play in the same game this weekend.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Justin Jefferson has fallen out of my top 10, and it’s not a comfortable feeling, but I need this JJ McCarthy offense to work through its best player before I bank on it.
On the bright side, they are trying. They just haven’t been successful. Jefferson has posted a target share north of 28% in every McCarthy start, but a 51.2% catch rate (66% in Carson Wentz starts) with 54 receiving yards per game is criminal.
Layered into this is an opponent who is familiar with defending him. Who do you think wins this game?
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For his career, when beating the Packers, Jefferson averages 24 PPR PPG on the back of 8.8 targets and 111.2 receiving yards. When losing to the NFC North rival, those numbers dip to 7.4 PPR PPG, 7.3 targets, and 39.5 receiving yards.
The risk is too high for me to pay top DFS dollar. That said, his falling in my rankings isn’t close to putting him on the fringe of your lineup. Jefferson was responsible for 54 of McCarthy’s 75 first-half passing yards last week: we just need them to get on, and stay on, the same page for 60 minutes.
Get it together, Minnesota.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
Are we done here?
I know you’re tied to the draft capital you spent on T.J. Hockenson back in August, but we’ve seen no signs of life outside of one game against the Bengals in September.
Hock hasn’t reached 50 yards (air or realized) in a game this season, and while seeing him make his biggest play of the season last week was at least a step in the right direction (21 yards), the volume just isn’t close to high enough.
He’s struggled to open up, throwing windows all season, but the 28-year-old has just 11 catches on 133 routes in JJ McCarthy’s starts this season. That’s not going to work.
The worst part? He’s not even the top priority when it comes to pass catchers on this offense that need to be fixed. Maybe he will develop rapidly with McCarthy over the next month, and I can change my tune by the fantasy playoffs, but I’m not going to be burned in assuming that’s destined to be the case.
Hock is my TE19 this week.
