Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has had elite fantasy football seasons, and his ability to accelerate quickly is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. That said, he’s entering his age-31 season and coming off a disappointing season where he battled a thumb injury.
Has the time come to pass on Hill’s potential, understanding that he is past his peak, or should we be buying the dip after a down 2024?
Tyreek Hill’s Fantasy Outlook
There are decisions to be made during the draft, and decisions that must be made ahead of time.
Hill is the latter.
You have to either convince yourself of a rebound or enter your draft room with a full fade, understanding that you will not let yourself be tempted should he fall below ADP.
In my opinion, there’s no middle ground. If you believe that he can rebound, his current price is far too low. He had three straight seasons north of 110 grabs prior to the mess of 2024 and largely looked unguardable. From 2020 through 2023, his last two seasons in Kansas City and his first two in Miami, he was the WR1.
Not “a” WR1. “The” WR1. Here’s a look at the profiles of the top-10 receivers over that stretch.
- Hill: 20.8 points per game, 20.2% over expectation, 2.05 points per target
- Davante Adams: 20.4 PPG, 9.6% over expectation, 1.94 PPT
- Justin Jefferson: 19.6 PPG, 17.8% over expectation, 2.03 PPT
- Cooper Kupp: 19.1 PPG, 12.4% over expectation, 1.97 PPT
- Stefon Diggs: 18.3 PPG, 9% over expectation, 1.87 PPT
- Ja’Marr Chase: 18 PPG, 13.1% over expectation, 2.00 PPT
- Keenan Allen: 17.8 PPG, 1.5% over expectation, 1.74 PPT
- CeeDee Lamb: 17.5 PPG, 15.2% over expectation, 1.95 PPT
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 16.9 PPG, 9.9% over expectation, 1.87 PPT
- A.J. Brown: 16.7 PPG, 16% over expectation, 1.99 PPT
Outside of Diggs (injury) and Allen (age), this is a list of players who remain highly productive and, in most cases, elite. So why can’t Hill be? He’s only missed one game over the past four seasons, and we just saw Tua Tagovailoa stay on the field for 17 games in 2023.
Why can’t he bounce back and again be a WR1 week in and week out?
Tyreek Hill is working on improving his endurance. He’s lost 14 pounds, and is back down to his typical playing weight.
Tyreek Hill’s Snap Share in 2024@FantasyPtsData
1st Quarter: 87%
2nd Quarter: 87%
3rd Quarter: 84%
4th Quarter: 63%— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 6, 2025
That’s a fair case to make. Miami has eight road games this season, but one comes in Week 18 after your fantasy season is done. So, in theory, there’s less to worry about in terms of weather than in other seasons. They play in Madrid in mid-November, but once they get past Cleveland in Week 7 (Oct. 19), there are only two spots where Mother Nature could be a problem, a pretty good run out for those looking to invest in this offense.
But there’s another side to that coin, and given the depth at the position, it’s the side I fall on.
Hill turned 31 in March, and for someone who relies on his quick burst, a lost half a step could make a world of difference. So could a nagging thumb injury for someone who needs his hands to make a living. So could an injury to a starting quarterback who has one season with more than 13 games played and is currently backed up by Zach Wilson/Quinn Ewers.
There are many ways for this season to look a lot like last, and that scares me, given that the market is expecting, at least to some degree, a nice bounce-back campaign. In 2024, Hill saw his yards per catch dip by 21.9%, which fueled a career low 1.79 yards per route run (15.6% below the season that was previously his worst).
He opened last season with a bang against the Jaguars (WR4: seven catches for 130 yards and an 80-yard touchdown), but he had just four top-25 finishes after that, a production path that simply isn’t going to come close to being acceptable, even at a cheaper price this summer than last.
Three moving pieces in Hill’s profile scare me, and I fear that if two of them sustain, he’s going to have a hard time paying off his current ADP>
- Red-zone usage dropped from 37.5% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024
- His deep catch rate from 2022-23 was 63.3%, but 52% in 2024
- His slot usage has declined in four straight seasons
That’s the triple crown of dread. Valuable catches, big plays, and high percentage targets.
All of them moved in the wrong direction last season. Without a recovery in at least two of those areas, I’m not sure how he keeps up with what is a growing second tier of receivers (for the record, my tier 1: Nico Collins, a’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and CeeDee Lamb).
Receivers like Ladd McConkey and Terry McLaurin, who have yet to reach their peak and have quarterbacks I’d rather bet on, are easier clicks than Hill this summer, even with Hill’s track record being what it is.
I’m not here to convince you on/off Hill. I’m here to tell you to take a pre-draft stance and stick to it. If you want to roll the dice, I think that’s fine. If you are worried enough to not like him at his asking price, then, in my opinion, you’re worried enough to pass on the downside even if he falls a few spots. Trust your process!
Frank Ammirante’s Tyreek Hill Projection
Throughout the offseason, I’ve gone between fading and bring neutral on Tyreek Hill, but I’ve landed on him as one of my potential busts for this season. He is a veteran entering his age-31 season who showed serious signs of decline last year.
Hill put up 81 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns in 17 games. His yards per reception plummeted from 15.1 to 11.8. This did not look like the explosive playmaker of old.
When wideouts show decline past the age of 30, it’s time to get a bit concerned. Think about Andre Johnson with the Colts and Julio Jones with the Titans as recent examples. If the bounce back doesn’t come, you’re wasting a valuable second-round pick on Hill. In other words, the opportunity cost is quite high.
There’s also the chance that Hill is traded at some point in the year, as there are clearly some issues with him and QB Tua Tagovailoa. That would mean learning a new scheme, which could take some time and affect his overall fantasy value. With that in mind, I’m fading Hill in 2025.
