The track record of quarterbacks who are 26 years old during their rookie seasons is essentially nonexistent. Tyler Shough did not start Week 1, but earned the job by midseason and is not at risk of being benched this year. Despite the outlier profile, there are several reasons fantasy football managers should be quite bullish on the New Orleans Saints QB.
Should You Draft Tyler Shough in Fantasy Football?
When evaluating Shough’s rookie season, it’s important to remember how things played out. By the time most fantasy managers get back into the swing of things, they’ve forgotten a lot of the details. Looking at things like fantasy points per game helps, but context matters.
Shough’s 14.4 PPG is not a true representation of how he performed because it includes games in which he appeared but didn’t start. In fact, we should probably throw out his first couple starts as well.
The analysis should begin in Week 10, which was the first game in which Shough showed some fantasy potential, posting 19.0 fantasy points.
From Weeks 10-18, Shough averaged 18.0 PPG. From Weeks 13-18, Shough posted at least 17 fantasy points in every single contest. He was a viable QB1 for the second half of the season.
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Shough is far from a mobile quarterback, but he has the requisite mobility we ask a modern NFL QB to have. From Weeks 12-18, Shough averaged 5.1 PPG via rushing. That was a bit bolstered by three rushing touchdowns, but he still averaged 25 rushing yards per game. That plays.
Volume-wise, Shough averaged a solid 32.5 pass attempts per game. And that includes his first three starts, where the Saints kind of had the kid gloves on him. Once he got comfortable, Shough was airing it out, as Kellen Moore offenses are wont to do. He averaged 34.8 attempts per game over his final seven.
Adding to the excitement for Shough’s prospects is the nature of the offense. The supporting cast already featured Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. This year, the Saints added Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson to the fold.
Here is where Moore’s offenses have ranked in scoring during his time as an offensive coordinator:
- 2019: 6
- 2020: 17 (Dak Prescott shattered his ankle in Week 5)
- 2021: 1
- 2022: 4
- 2023: 21 (It just didn’t work out with the Chargers)
- 2024: 7 (The Eagles won the Super Bowl)
Last year, Moore walked into a pretty awful offensive situation, so the Saints being the fifth-lowest-scoring team should not be held against him. He’s turned things around pretty quickly. With a friendly NFC South schedule, this is an offense fantasy managers should want to invest in.
Shough’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Due to the quarterback position being quite deep, Shough’s ADP is way down at QB20. We even have him at QB21, below consensus. Normally, that’s an indication that we’re not high on a player, but nothing could be further from the truth.
The problem is the linear nature of fantasy rankings. Someone has to go above someone else even if the players are pretty much the same. That’s the case with a lot of the QB2s this season.
There is a cluster of quarterbacks in the QB12-20 range that are all relatively similarly priced. Shough is toward the tail end of that, but harping on where he specifically falls is pointless, as minor shifts in price could shuffle the order. The relevant fact is that there are roughly nine quarterbacks in that range with very little separating them.
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In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spent premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
However, the real value lies in finding that elite production without having to pay the requisite price. There are potential options out there.
I would stop short of saying Shough has elite upside. A 20+ PPG season is likely not in his range of outcomes. But if he can be in that 17-19 PPG range, that is a tremendous value based on his cost.
Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- Bryce Young | CAR
