It’s easy to forget that Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie. It’s easy to forget that, across three years in the league (580 touches), he’s missed one single game. It’s easy to forget, or not know, that among the 68 running backs with at least 50 targets since 2022, Allgeier ranks third in catch rate.
Bijan Robinson’s greatness has masked some pretty positive production from this former BYU Cougar, and with his ADP as low as it is, should you be targeting him late in drafts, even if you weren’t fortunate enough to land Atlanta’s starter in the first round?
Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Outlook
As long as your expectations are in check, the drafting of Allgeier makes plenty of sense as you build out your roster for the marathon that is the NFL season.
Tyler Allgeier pic.twitter.com/j6e3nvKq8F
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 16, 2025
Some insurance running backs have a real chance to take carries off the plate of their RB1. I’ll be highlighting Jordan Mason (Vikings), Cam Skattebo (Giants), and Jaydon Blue (Cowboys), among others, this summer as players that enter 2025 with that potential, RBs who could rack up enough fantasy points per game down the stretch of the season to carve out enough of a role alongside of their bellcow.
In most builds, I prioritize those types significantly, especially with an RB like Tyler Allgeier, as I’m not relying on injury to make my backup running back a potential flex option. Allgeier offers contingent upside that I actually prefer to the backs mentioned above, but his odds of walking into a viable role are so much lower that he falls in the ranks a bit.
But don’t let him fall much further than that.
Allgeier ranks 10th at the position in production over expectation (+3.7%) since entering the league (minimum 500 carries), swimming in the same pool as Kyren Williams (+4.1%) and Josh Jacobs (+3.4%) over that stretch. I think we have a large enough sample at this point to say that a running back approaching his physical prime is a solid runner at the professional level, and that’s the type of depth I want on my roster.
The Bijan Robinson profile is interesting. He’s my top overall player, but some of the things that sit him atop drafts are the same things that make Allgeier an interesting option in the late rounds for all managers, not just those rostering Atlanta’s RB1.
Robinson has yet to miss a game in his career and has handled 637 touches across those 34 regular season contests. That level of usage gives him peak Adrian Peterson upside, though it also introduces risk that, at the very least, has to be considered.
Should he miss time, Allgeier moves into the weekly starter tier at the position regardless of matchup, and that’s a nice level of security to have sitting on your bench, something that the flier receivers in this ADP range simply don’t offer.
With a healthy Robinson, Allgeier is a clear bench, and while that’s not going to help you, it’s comforting to draft a player and have a very clear flow chart for when you do/don’t plug him in. The Falcons’ backup has cleared 12 carries just once in his past 20 game,s and that instance was game script reliant more than anything: Atlanta blew out Carolina in Week 6 last season and finished the game with twice as many rush attempts as completions.
For me, Allgeier is an easy click over the Braelon Allens and Jaylen Wrights of the world. Heck, I’m not even hesitating in plucking him off the board before a JK Dobbins or Austin Ekeler type, two running backs who I don’t have penciled in for as strong of a role should injuries clear the way for a fantasy viable role.
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Strategically speaking, there are a handful of RBs in the Allgeier tier that I’m targeting when I don’t have that starting running back in those offenses (Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, and Ray Davis to name a few). The idea of securing a specific backfield holds water, but I like to draft for upside in the later stages.
If I’m worried about, for example, a Kenneth Walker III injury, drafting Charbonnet gives me the potential to take advantage of the health risk ahead of him while also continuing to play whoever I drafted over Walker earlier in the draft: fantasy football is a game of volume, not just for specific players, but in terms of touches for your roster as a whole and by diversifying the backfields you have investments in, you open up additional outs for your weekly starting lineup.
Cameron Sheath’s Tyler Allgeier Projection
If Tyler Allgeier proves to be a good fantasy asset in 2025, it’s likely bad news for fantasy football. The former BYU star is now a fully-fledged handcuff, with Bijan Robinson the every-down back in Atlanta.
Allgeier’s snap share topped 30% on just four occasions in 2024. He tallied five carries from inside the opposition’s five-yard line, while Robinson had 14 — a worrying stat for the team’s supposed power runner. Unless Robinson misses time, Allgeier will likely be redundant. He will definitely have some plays and some touchdowns, but playing whack-a-mole with that production won’t be fun.
At RB53, Allgeier is more expensive than several other handcuffs in fantasy this year. Blake Corum, Jaylen Wright, and Will Shipley are all being drafted rounds later and are no less valuable than the Falcons’ backup.
Allgeier is an understandable pick for those who drafted Robinson early, but there are far more exciting picks here.
