Once behind Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft has fully entrenched himself as the Green Bay Packers’ starting tight end. Coming off a solid high TE2 season, can the third-year man take a step forward this season, making Kraft a solid late-round fantasy football target?
Tucker Kraft Fantasy Outlook
Musgrave was supposed to be the Packers’ TE1 of the future. He burst onto the scene as a rookie, but then injury derailed his breakout. In his absence, Kraft stepped up and never looked back.
Heading into their sophomore years, though, there was genuine uncertainty about who would be the primary tight end. Musgrave’s continued health struggles combined with Kraft’s quality play sealed the deal, though, as he played 85.8% of the snaps in 2024.
Kraft remains one of the most efficient tight ends in the league. His 2.64 yards per route run ranked second at the position. He also averaged 14.1 yards per reception, second in the league. The problem is volume.
In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league. If you look at the teams typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they played slow, averaging 29.4 seconds per snap, the ninth-slowest pace in the league. They also ran 540 plays, a staggering 26 fewer than the next-lowest team. By contrast, the Chiefs ran 839 plays, leading the league.
The concern for 2025 is, what exactly is going to change? If the Packers are surprisingly terrible on defense, they will have no choice but to play faster and run more plays. But we have no reason to predict that. They will likely have an average to good defense and run a similar offensive scheme.
The volume issues aren’t solely with the offense as a whole. As great as Kraft is on a per-route basis and after the catch, he’s not being targeted all that much and is not running many routes.
— Film Collins (@filmcollins01) May 20, 2025
Kraft’s 15.1% target share was 19th in the league. That won’t cut it when he’s only running a route on 53.5% of pass plays. Add in a 5.3 aDOT, and how will Kraft ever make a consistent impact?
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Last year, Kraft was your classic touchdown-or-bust TE2. He averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE14. He hit double-digit fantasy points seven times. In six of those games, he scored.
Kraft’s TE10 average draft position (ADP) is very fair, and that is precisely where I have him ranked. My general TE strategy is elite TE or punt. If I don’t end up drafting Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or George Kittle, I will be one of the last teams to select a tight end. If that guy ends up being Kraft because he’s still there in the final couple of rounds, cool. If not, no big deal.
Frank Ammirante’s Tucker Kraft Projection
Tucker Kraft is a third-year tight end on an upward trajectory. He is coming off a strong season in which he caught 50 of his 70 targets for 707 yards and seven touchdowns. This weapon can make plays after the catch — last year, it put up 9.1 YAC per reception, which ranked first among tight ends with at least 40 receptions. For context, the next closest was George Kittle, at 6.7.
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With that in mind, it’s clear that Kraft can make things happen with the ball in his hands, so it would be in the Packers’ best interest to get him more involved in the offense. Reports out of camp have been positive so far.
We also have to note that the Packers went extremely run-heavy last year because Jordan Love was playing through an injury. Now fully healthy, we can expect an uptick in passing volume in Green Bay, which bodes well for Kraft. This is one of my favorite targets at tight end this season.
