Once behind Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft has fully entrenched himself as the Green Bay Packers’ starting tight end. Coming off a solid high TE2 season, can the third-year man take a step forward this season, making Kraft a solid late-round fantasy football target?
Tucker Kraft Fantasy Outlook
Musgrave was supposed to be the Packers’ TE1 of the future. He burst onto the scene as a rookie, but then injury derailed his breakout. In his absence, Kraft stepped up and never looked back.
Heading into their sophomore years, though, there was genuine uncertainty about who would be the primary tight end. Musgrave’s continued health struggles combined with Kraft’s quality play sealed the deal, though, as he played 85.8% of the snaps in 2024.
Kraft remains one of the most efficient tight ends in the league. His 2.64 yards per route run ranked second at the position. He also averaged 14.1 yards per reception, second in the league. The problem is volume.
In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league. If you look at the teams typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they played slow, averaging 29.4 seconds per snap, the ninth-slowest pace in the league. They also ran 540 plays, a staggering 26 fewer than the next-lowest team. By contrast, the Chiefs ran 839 plays, leading the league.
The concern for 2025 is, what exactly is going to change? If the Packers are surprisingly terrible on defense, they will have no choice but to play faster and run more plays. But we have no reason to predict that. They will likely have an average to good defense and run a similar offensive scheme.
The volume issues aren’t solely with the offense as a whole. As great as Kraft is on a per-route basis and after the catch, he’s not being targeted all that much and is not running many routes.
— Film Collins (@filmcollins01) May 20, 2025
Kraft’s 15.1% target share was 19th in the league. That won’t cut it when he’s only running a route on 53.5% of pass plays. Add in a 5.3 aDOT, and how will Kraft ever make a consistent impact?
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Last year, Kraft was your classic touchdown-or-bust TE2. He averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE14. He hit double-digit fantasy points seven times. In six of those games, he scored.
Kraft’s TE10 average draft position (ADP) is very fair, and that is precisely where I have him ranked. My general TE strategy is elite TE or punt. If I don’t end up drafting Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or George Kittle, I will be one of the last teams to select a tight end. If that guy ends up being Kraft because he’s still there in the final couple of rounds, cool. If not, no big deal.
Mason LeBeau‘s Tucker Kraft Projection
One of my favorite prospects at the position, for some reason, is still just outside the top-12 in ADP. Tucker Kraft enters year three in a Packers offense with no clear top option or defined roles. He broke out last season with 50 receptions for 700 yards and seven touchdowns, good enough for TE7. Yet, there doesn’t appear to be much hype around him.Â
Managers are targeting other young players like rookies Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, or fellow third-year Dalton Kincaid near the same point in drafts. Instead of betting on a rookie, pivot to Kraft, who already has more proof of concept and is connected to a good offense.Â
While the receivers fight for glory, Kraft could easily become their most reliable target. He went toe-to-toe with the young group last year, earning 70 targets, which is within six targets of each of Green Bay’s WRs Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs. While their statuses could be challenged by rookie WR Matthew Golden, Kraft has cleanly won his positional battle over Luke Musgrave. We don’t know who the receiver will be to target for fantasy, but we should know who the correct pass catcher is.Â
It’ll always be a good bet to take a shot on a promising young tight end tied to a good young quarterback and even better offensive mind. Usually, the price for a similar player would be closer to TE6-9, but instead, Kraft is going for essentially free in the late rounds. This makes him a great pick for whatever strategy you want with the position. He can be an upside backup if you took a player earlier, your TE1, or a pair of two reasonably priced players. This is easily one of my favorite values in the draft.Â
