Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has proven capable of putting fantasy football points on the board when healthy. Still, availability has been a significant hurdle for him up to this point in his career (one season with more than 13 games played as he enters his age-27 season), and his WR1 seems to be trending in the wrong direction.
Does the upside remain high enough to draft Tagovailoa and chase the ceiling weeks, or is the position too deep now to justify such a risk?
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Outlook
Leaving a draft with Tagovailoa as your only quarterback is asking for trouble, but if you wait until the second half of your draft to take your QB1, what do you have to lose by investing in Miami’s signal-caller in the later stages instead of adding a sixth receiver?
There is a usable weekly fantasy player within this profile, and while he needs to run pure in the health department, his proximity to usefulness is much more tempting than any of the names in his average draft position (ADP) range.
Last season, we saw him rattle off four straight top 10 finishes (Weeks 11-14), proving that this quick-strike offense can rack up the fantasy points when clicking on all cylinders.
Average Depth of Target
- 2022: 9.6 yards
- 2023: 7.6 yards
- 2024: 5.7 yards
Some would argue that these shallow throws lower the ceiling of fantasy QBs, and, on the whole, I’d agree with that. Logically, it makes sense, but given how this Dolphins roster is built, getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers in short order is the path to upside. Tagovailoa missed six games last season, but he still had more games with multiple touchdown throws and zero interceptions than Patrick Mahomes.
I believe that he’s a good quarterback.
🎥 Tua Tagovailoa’s 2018 season at Alabama was special. 🌟 (@CFBRep) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/VoLsxv15YW
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) June 24, 2025
But he’s marginal in our game, so you can’t justify drafting him as your lone starting option at the position.
I mentioned that the declining aDOT doesn’t worry me, and it doesn’t. That’s the league’s direction, and the supporting cast can make it work for Tagovailoa. That said, I want some level of efficiency on the rare occasion in which he elects to stretch the field, if for no other reason than to open up what he wants to do underneath, and we simply aren’t moving in a positive direction in that regard.
Deep Pass Profile
- 2022: 115.7 rating, 57.3% complete, 15.3 YPA, 7.8% TD rate
- 2023: 103.3 rating, 59.8% complete, 15.7 YPA, 9% TD rate
- 2024: 80.9 rating, 46.4% complete, 11.7 YPA, 2.9% TD rate
I often stress “paths to positive outcomes” in my fantasy analysis. Read the cheat sheets weekly, and you might get tired of that staple, but I stand by it. This talented league can often take away what they focus on. You want players who can beat defenses in various ways.
The deep passing metrics are moving in the wrong direction, and the rushing production seems to be a thing of the past for the 27-year-old Tagovailoa. In his first two seasons, he averaged 10.3 rushing yards per game with six touchdowns on 78 carries. He wasn’t Mike Vick, but it was something. It was an avenue to save you from a disastrous week and keep you in your matchup.
Over the past three seasons? He’s averaging just 4.7 yards per game and hasn’t scored on the ground a single time on 76 carries.
Tagovailoa, for me, is no different than a boom/bust receiver. You roster him and hope to catch lightning in a bottle when your hand is forced and you start him. There’s simply too much depth at the position to get this cute.
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Trevor Lawrence is a high-pedigree player with emerging talent around him and a new coaching staff that could unlock him. JJ McCarthy is an unknown, but he’s another quarterback in a strong system who has plenty of help in the skill positions. Bryce Young showed signs of life late last season, and Anthony Richardson is as toolsy as anyone, giving him a throughline to a similar ceiling.
I’m not sure any of those options are drastically different, so why not, if you’re going to draft a backup quarterback, just wait until the final round and plan on streaming that roster spot?
Tagovailoa is an interesting player in DFS and best ball formats, but I think you can do better in season-long fantasy.
Dan Fornek’s Tua Tagovailoa Projection
There may not be a bigger all-or-nothing quarterback option in fantasy in 2025 than Tua Tagovailoa. When healthy, Tagovailoa has shown that he can operate head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense exceptionally well. The veteran quarterback completed 72.9% of his passes for 2,867 yards, 19 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 11 games in 2024. He finished as the QB14 in fantasy points per game (16.5).
Unfortunately, Tagovailoa suffered another concussion that landed him on the injured reserve for four games last season. He also suffered a hip strain that cost him another two games at the end of the year. Tagovailoa continues to suffer significant concussions that put his NFL future in jeopardy.
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It also doesn’t help that Tagovailoa has been playing behind a bad offensive line that could have gotten worse thanks to left tackle Terron Armstead’s retirement. Thankfully, the Dolphins have been able to navigate a poor group in the past by relying on quick passes and explosive playmakers.
Tagovailoa still has access to an excellent group of playmaking pass catchers in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane in 2025. That group alone raises his floor given their ability to take any touch the distance. However, the injury risks are very real for the veteran quarterback, which makes it impossible to fully buy into his ceiling as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy.
