Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has proven capable of putting fantasy football points on the board when healthy. Still, availability has been a significant hurdle for him up to this point in his career (one season with more than 13 games played as he enters his age-27 season), and his WR1 seems to be trending in the wrong direction.
Does the upside remain high enough to draft Tagovailoa and chase the ceiling weeks, or is the position too deep now to justify such a risk?
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Outlook
Leaving a draft with Tagovailoa as your only quarterback is asking for trouble, but if you wait until the second half of your draft to take your QB1, what do you have to lose by investing in Miami’s signal-caller in the later stages instead of adding a sixth receiver?
There is a usable weekly fantasy player within this profile, and while he needs to run pure in the health department, his proximity to usefulness is much more tempting than any of the names in his average draft position (ADP) range.
Last season, we saw him rattle off four straight top 10 finishes (Weeks 11-14), proving that this quick-strike offense can rack up the fantasy points when clicking on all cylinders.
Average Depth of Target
- 2022: 9.6 yards
- 2023: 7.6 yards
- 2024: 5.7 yards
Some would argue that these shallow throws lower the ceiling of fantasy QBs, and, on the whole, I’d agree with that. Logically, it makes sense, but given how this Dolphins roster is built, getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers in short order is the path to upside. Tagovailoa missed six games last season, but he still had more games with multiple touchdown throws and zero interceptions than Patrick Mahomes.
I believe that he’s a good quarterback.
🎥 Tua Tagovailoa’s 2018 season at Alabama was special. 🌟 (@CFBRep) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/VoLsxv15YW
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) June 24, 2025
But he’s marginal in our game, so you can’t justify drafting him as your lone starting option at the position.
I mentioned that the declining aDOT doesn’t worry me, and it doesn’t. That’s the league’s direction, and the supporting cast can make it work for Tagovailoa. That said, I want some level of efficiency on the rare occasion in which he elects to stretch the field, if for no other reason than to open up what he wants to do underneath, and we simply aren’t moving in a positive direction in that regard.
Deep Pass Profile
- 2022: 115.7 rating, 57.3% complete, 15.3 YPA, 7.8% TD rate
- 2023: 103.3 rating, 59.8% complete, 15.7 YPA, 9% TD rate
- 2024: 80.9 rating, 46.4% complete, 11.7 YPA, 2.9% TD rate
I often stress “paths to positive outcomes” in my fantasy analysis. Read the cheat sheets weekly, and you might get tired of that staple, but I stand by it. This talented league can often take away what they focus on. You want players who can beat defenses in various ways.
The deep passing metrics are moving in the wrong direction, and the rushing production seems to be a thing of the past for the 27-year-old Tagovailoa. In his first two seasons, he averaged 10.3 rushing yards per game with six touchdowns on 78 carries. He wasn’t Mike Vick, but it was something. It was an avenue to save you from a disastrous week and keep you in your matchup.
Over the past three seasons? He’s averaging just 4.7 yards per game and hasn’t scored on the ground a single time on 76 carries.
Tagovailoa, for me, is no different than a boom/bust receiver. You roster him and hope to catch lightning in a bottle when your hand is forced and you start him. There’s simply too much depth at the position to get this cute.
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Trevor Lawrence is a high-pedigree player with emerging talent around him and a new coaching staff that could unlock him. JJ McCarthy is an unknown, but he’s another quarterback in a strong system who has plenty of help in the skill positions. Bryce Young showed signs of life late last season, and Anthony Richardson is as toolsy as anyone, giving him a throughline to a similar ceiling.
I’m not sure any of those options are drastically different, so why not, if you’re going to draft a backup quarterback, just wait until the final round and plan on streaming that roster spot?
Tagovailoa is an interesting player in DFS and best ball formats, but I think you can do better in season-long fantasy.
Frank Ammirante’s Tua Tagovailoa Projection
This is an easy one. Tua Tagovailoa’s ADP is a pretty reasonable price, making him a solid pairing with WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, or RB Devon Achane if you truly desire a stack. However, regardless of format, there isn’t much reason to draft him otherwise.
In 1QB, he’ll make for a fine streamer on good matchups, especially early in the season if the offense is clicking. In Superflex, he’s a hard avoid.
When the Dolphins’ offense lit up the league in 2023 behind Tagovailoa and HC Mike McDaniel, he led the league in passing with 4,600 yards and added 29 touchdowns. He still only finished as QB11 despite playing the whole season with a healthy and elite Hill and a strong running game behind him. It would take everything falling right for Tagovailoa to hit his fantasy upside, and that ceiling is still of a high-end QB2.
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Factor in that he’s an extreme injury risk, has only played one full season, and that the floor may be falling out from this offense, and I believe you’re better served by taking a chance on a younger player around the same spot, or even a known commodity like Matthew Stafford.
We can’t be positive that this offensive line is much improved, TE Jonnu Smith is gone, Achane is small, and if Hill has truly hit the age wall, then this offense has more questions than answers. It sure seems like Mike McDaniel will be coaching for his job this year.
I won’t be surprised to see this offense click early on and deliver a few big games, but don’t buy into it. The long-term prognosis of this team is not good, the floor for Tua is scarily low, and the ceiling isn’t worth the risk. Everyone is a value at some point, but I won’t be going near his ADP.
