Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride was a non-factor as a rookie, which often turns fantasy football managers off in the modern world of immediate gratification. As a sophomore, McBride broke out over the next half, establishing himself as the next great tight end. He became an elite tight end in year three. Should fantasy managers spend an early-round selection on him in 2025?
Trey McBride Fantasy Outlook
McBride didn’t hit the ground running like Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers. He followed the traditional tight end path, beginning with irrelevance as a rookie. As a sophomore, McBride started the same way, barely playing and not really mattering. Then, over the second half of his second season, he became a full-time player, and it was glorious.
McBride further improved in his third season, the first time he entered a year as the clear TE1. He averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game and finished as the overall TE2.
Even though the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride remained Kyler Murray’s favorite target. The talented tight end led the position with a 29.3% target share and was targeted on 31.1% of his routes run, third in the league. He averaged 2.42 yards per route run despite leading the league in route participation rate and having a mere 6.1 aDOT, 21st in the league. McBride was elite.
Trey McBride:
> Highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history (34.8%)
> Outperformed the 4th overall pick in YPRR, 1D/RR, YPTOE, FPG, and every other stat you can think of
> Actually got better average separation on some downfield routes https://t.co/q2ovfmLTpR pic.twitter.com/RDAYiFIK6S
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) April 3, 2025
We have every reason to expect similarly excellent production in 2025. However, it will come with an increase in cost.
McBride’s ADP is now TE2, behind only Brock Bowers. If you want the Cardinals’ TE, you must take him no later than the first half of the third round. That’s an expensive price to pay for a tight end and one that, historically, has not been worth it.
Given how few tight ends are true difference-makers, the degree to which fantasy managers can wait and get replacement-level production is greater than any other position. You can take a passable 10 PPG TE in the last round or stream the position. Therefore, if you pay a premium for a tight end, he has to give you a significant edge.
McBride posting high WR2-level numbers as a late-fourth/early-fifth-round selection was very much worth it in 2024. He won’t be worth his price this year if he merely repeats that production. We need further improvement.
On the one hand, asking McBride to do better than 15.6 PPG seems like a lot. On the other hand, he actually should’ve been better last year.
McBride caught 111 passes for 1,146 yards. Yet, he only scored two touchdowns. In fact, it was a running gag all season. McBride didn’t score until Week 17. He recorded seven games of 14+ fantasy points without catching a touchdown in any of them.
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Based on his yardage total, McBride should’ve scored around eight times. Let’s say McBride has a similar season, but scores as much as he should (but not anymore). He would average around 17.1 PPG. We would sign for 17 PPG from any non-quarterback we might take around the 2/3 turn.
I have McBride ranked as my TE2. Whether I take him depends heavily on my feelings about the available WRs and RBs. There is nothing wrong with taking McBride at his ADP to offer advice on what to do. It will come down to draft philosophy and how you are building your roster.
Frank Ammirante’s Trey McBride Projection
Trey McBride is coming off another strong season, racking up 111 catches for 1,146 yards and two touchdowns. This resulted in a TE3 finish in fantasy points per game, as a lack of touchdowns held back the Cardinals’ star.
While some hope for some positive touchdown regression from McBride, the fact is that he’s never been a prolific scorer in the pros, combining for only six career scores in three seasons. This is a team context issue, with the Cardinals feeding James Conner or running Kyler Murray in the red zone.
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Despite this, McBride looks like a rock-solid pick at the top of the third round. Despite similar production to Brock Bowers, you’re getting McBride at a nice discount. If he can run hot on touchdowns, he could finish as the top TE in fantasy, but I wouldn’t expect more than six scores, given what we’ve seen from him with Murray. For this reason, McBride is a better target in full-PPR formats.
