Travis Kelce has spent most of his career getting selected in the first 2-3 rounds of fantasy football drafts. For the first time in a decade, he’s not viewed as a top fantasy tight end. Does Kelce have a bounce-back in him, or will his decline continue?
Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook
Before writing this, I looked at what I wrote about Kelce in previous years. My 2023 Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook headline said, “Is This the Year Regression Hits?” Narrator: Yes. Kelce went from 18.6 fantasy points per game and the most decisive edge in fantasy football to 14.6 PPG. He was still the overall TE1 but wasn’t worth his average draft position (ADP) because he didn’t produce WR1-level numbers.
Last year, I wrote, ” I’m projecting an even further decline in Kelce’s usage. The man is 35 years old. They’re not going to force-feed him targets, nor are they going to leave him in games that aren’t competitive.”
This was the plan. Kelce opened the season with four, three, and five targets. Then, in Week 4, Patrick Mahomes launched his body into Rashee Rice’s knee. With Hollywood Brown already out and Xavier Worthy struggling to acclimate to the NFL, the Chiefs had to abandon their plan to reduce Kelce’s usage.
After failing to score more than 7.0 fantasy points in the first three weeks, Kelce averaged 14.8 ppg from Weeks 4-13. He didn’t quite rebound to his elite levels, but he provided the same value level as in 2024.
You may be wondering why I specifically blocked out those weeks. It’s because in Week 14, the Chiefs elevated Worthy to their clear WR1. He went from playing around 60% of the snaps to more than 80% in the rest of their games, and the impact on Kelce was noticeable.
From Weeks 14-17, Kelce averaged a mere 11.65 PPG. Then, in the NFL playoffs, with Hollywood Brown back, Kelce averaged 12.2 PPG.
Kelce is still capable of having a throwback performance. However, we can conclude the Chiefs don’t want to run their offense through him anymore, opting to keep him fresh for when they need him.
Even more concerning is that Kelce’s volume didn’t decrease last season despite averaging just 12.2 PPG. He saw a 24.1% target share, fourth in the league, and ran a route on nearly 90% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, fourth in the league.
The issue was twofold. First, Kelce’s efficiency dropped. He averaged 8.5 yards per reception, a drop of 2.1 from the previous season and 1.6 from the year before that. This resulted in Kelce catching 97 passes but only amassing 823 yards.
Second, Kelce was not the same force in the end zone, scoring just three times. His yardage total suggests he should have scored more, but this could be (and likely is) deliberate on the part of the Chiefs.
From 2017 to 2022, Kelce scored at least eight touchdowns in all but one season. He’s now scored eight total touchdowns in his last 31 regular-season games (the 2023 and 2024 seasons).
Barring Injuries, Kelce Is Unlikely To Rebound This Year
Mahomes still trusts Kelce. If it comes down to it, he will lean on his tight end to keep this offense afloat. But it won’t be the plan.
Most Catchable Targets the last two seasons among Tight Ends:
🥇 Travis Kelce – 207
🥈 Trey McBride – 202 pic.twitter.com/OLV3rGcwE8— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) February 15, 2025
Rice’s recovery went incredibly well, and he’s ready to go for Week 1. I expect him to resume his WR1 role. Worthy established himself as capable of being the top option, if needed. He should be the WR2. Brown returned for another season. He’s the WR3. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kelce wound up third or fourth in targets.
Unless the Chiefs suffer multiple injuries to their WR corps like they did last season, I expect Kelce to be the guy he was last year, mostly. He turns 36 this season.
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If you draft Kelce at his TE6 ADP, you will probably get what you pay for. However, unless you’re getting a tight end that gives you an edge over your competitors (that is, a tight end who averages 13+ PPG), he’s not worth spending up on.
You can stream 10 ppg. You can draft 10 ppg for free. That seventh or eighth round pick is better spent on a wide receiver or running back than on a middling TE1. You can be the last team to draft a TE and get 1-2 PPG less on the season. Kelce is my TE9, and I cannot imagine drafting him anywhere this year.
Dan Fornek’s Travis Kelce Projection
Kelce’s best may officially be behind him. From 2016 to 2023, Kelce finished either TE1 or TE2 in every single season. A lot of that can be attributed to his pure statistical output, where he averaged 134.4 targets, 96.1 receptions, 1,157.1 receiving yards, and 7.4 touchdowns per season.
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Kelce saw a similar workload in 2024, finishing third among tight ends in targets (133) and target share (24.1%), second in air yards share (23.9%), and first in red zone targets (26). Unfortunately, he also posted a career low 6.6 average depth of target (TE15) and yards per reception (8.5). He also finished TE21 in yards per route run (1.67). Kelce still finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game thanks to his massive target share (12.2 PPG), but his lack of efficiency capped his upside.
The veteran tight end will once again be heavily leaned on in the passing attack, especially if Rice is suspended for an extended time after settling his pending legal case from a 2024 driving incident. That will provide him a solid floor as a top 10 tight end. Kelce still has a strong presence in the red zone, which can always boost his fantasy production if those targets convert into touchdowns.
