Should I Draft Travis Kelce? Fantasy Outlook for the Chiefs TE in 2025

Travis Kelce has spent most of his career getting selected in the first 2-3 rounds of fantasy football drafts. For the first time in a decade, he’s not viewed as a top fantasy tight end. Does Kelce have a bounce-back in him, or will his decline continue?

Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook

Before writing this, I looked at what I wrote about Kelce in previous years. My 2023 Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook headline said, “Is This the Year Regression Hits?” Narrator: Yes. Kelce went from 18.6 fantasy points per game and the most decisive edge in fantasy football to 14.6 PPG. He was still the overall TE1 but wasn’t worth his average draft position (ADP) because he didn’t produce WR1-level numbers.

Last year, I wrote, ” I’m projecting an even further decline in Kelce’s usage. The man is 35 years old. They’re not going to force-feed him targets, nor are they going to leave him in games that aren’t competitive.”

This was the plan. Kelce opened the season with four, three, and five targets. Then, in Week 4, Patrick Mahomes launched his body into Rashee Rice’s knee. With Hollywood Brown already out and Xavier Worthy struggling to acclimate to the NFL, the Chiefs had to abandon their plan to reduce Kelce’s usage.

After failing to score more than 7.0 fantasy points in the first three weeks, Kelce averaged 14.8 ppg from Weeks 4-13. He didn’t quite rebound to his elite levels, but he provided the same value level as in 2024.

You may be wondering why I specifically blocked out those weeks. It’s because in Week 14, the Chiefs elevated Worthy to their clear WR1. He went from playing around 60% of the snaps to more than 80% in the rest of their games, and the impact on Kelce was noticeable.

From Weeks 14-17, Kelce averaged a mere 11.65 PPG. Then, in the NFL playoffs, with Hollywood Brown back, Kelce averaged 12.2 PPG.

Kelce is still capable of having a throwback performance. However, we can conclude the Chiefs don’t want to run their offense through him anymore, opting to keep him fresh for when they need him.

Even more concerning is that Kelce’s volume didn’t decrease last season despite averaging just 12.2 PPG. He saw a 24.1% target share, fourth in the league, and ran a route on nearly 90% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, fourth in the league.

The issue was twofold. First, Kelce’s efficiency dropped. He averaged 8.5 yards per reception, a drop of 2.1 from the previous season and 1.6 from the year before that. This resulted in Kelce catching 97 passes but only amassing 823 yards.

Second, Kelce was not the same force in the end zone, scoring just three times. His yardage total suggests he should have scored more, but this could be (and likely is) deliberate on the part of the Chiefs.

From 2017 to 2022, Kelce scored at least eight touchdowns in all but one season. He’s now scored eight total touchdowns in his last 31 regular-season games (the 2023 and 2024 seasons).

Barring Injuries, Kelce Is Unlikely To Rebound This Year

Mahomes still trusts Kelce. If it comes down to it, he will lean on his tight end to keep this offense afloat. But it won’t be the plan.

Most Catchable Targets the last two seasons among Tight Ends:

🥇 Travis Kelce – 207
🥈 Trey McBride – 202 pic.twitter.com/OLV3rGcwE8

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) February 15, 2025

Rice’s recovery went incredibly well, and he’s ready to go for Week 1. I expect him to resume his WR1 role. Worthy established himself as capable of being the top option, if needed. He should be the WR2. Brown returned for another season. He’s the WR3. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kelce wound up third or fourth in targets.

Unless the Chiefs suffer multiple injuries to their WR corps like they did last season, I expect Kelce to be the guy he was last year, mostly. He turns 36 this season.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

If you draft Kelce at his TE6 ADP, you will probably get what you pay for. However, unless you’re getting a tight end that gives you an edge over your competitors (that is, a tight end who averages 13+ PPG), he’s not worth spending up on.

You can stream 10 ppg. You can draft 10 ppg for free. That seventh or eighth round pick is better spent on a wide receiver or running back than on a middling TE1. You can be the last team to draft a TE and get 1-2 PPG less on the season. Kelce is my TE9, and I cannot imagine drafting him anywhere this year.

Mason LeBeau‘s Travis Kelce Fantasy Projection

Can you zig when everyone else zags on Travis Kelce? Unfortunately, his name brand has kept his price a little higher than we’d like, and I’d expect he’ll be a popular target among more casual fans. In reality, it’s not a bad strategy — his current price makes him less of a risk. I only worry some managers will start to reach, offsetting the value he’s currently at. 

The writing is on the wall for Kelce. His 12.2 fantasy points per game last season were the lowest since his third season back in 2015. More concerningly, he saw a normal workload of targets but career lows in yards and touchdowns. His efficiency dwindled quickly, and his play in the Super Bowl did not look like a player who had much left in the tank. 

The good news is that if the Chiefs’ offense is in a better place to accommodate Kelce. I don’t believe the plan was to lean on him so hard last year, but they had to pivot after the injuries to WRs Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. 

He only scored six, one, and seven fantasy points in those first few weeks, but when the offense asked more of him, we got vintage Kelce again for an extended period of five great games in a six-week span that included three straight 20-plus-point performances. The problem is he was worn out by season’s end. A strong week 17 and Division round was followed by a pair of brutal games to finish the season, and that was with a two-week break and an additional bye before the Super Bowl. 

I don’t know if Kelce has enough for another full year, but I’d expect him to be a slightly more stable option and redzone threat, just without the blowup games. The savvy move may be to draft Kelce, bank early, and move on while his value is high and the name value looks shiny. He might be about done, but he can do great things for your fantasy team one more time.