Seemingly one of the safest players in fantasy football, Travis Etienne Jr. played himself out of his job last season. Now saddled with a competent coaching staff, but increased touch competition, is the Jacksonville Jaguars running back a bounce-back candidate or a player to avoid in the 2025 drafts?
Travis Etienne Jr. Fantasy Outlook
I come in here and on X, preaching my Herman Edwards-inspired philosophy. You play to win the game! Hello!
That makes taking chances and making decisions that give your teams the best chance at being dominant. The goal is never to make the playoffs and come in fourth place. Yet, when faced with the choice between a risky De’Von Achane and a safe Etienne, I went with the latter.
My performance in that league as a whole is not important. What matters is the flaw in the process. What is a safe player? Etienne certainly fit the bill. He was coming off a season in which he finished as the overall RB7, averaging 16.7Â fantasy points per game upside. He was the clear RB1 on an admittedly weaker offense without a capable starting quarterback. Objectively, I knew he didn’t have the upside of Achane, but “There was no way he would lose his job.” Words I actually said.
This is a good lesson in why we should chase upside over safety. The players we think are safe may not be.
Etienne went from 16.7 PPG in 2023 to 8.7 PPG in 2024. It seemed unfathomable at the time, but there were signs.
Etienne averaged 3.8 yards per carry in a fraudulent 2023 season that saw him perform as the greatest running back of all time for four weeks, and a middling RB2 for the other 13. Etienne averaged 13.4 PPG outside of that legendary four-week stretch. He only averaged 4.6 yards per touch, and just 3.7% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
The safety largely stemmed from the lack of backfield competition. They tried to add someone in 2023, drafting Tank Bigsby. However, the rookie was so awful, averaging 2.6 ypc, that he only got on the field for 50 carries. He’s also a complete zero in the passing game, catching a total of one pass as a rookie. This proved true as Bigsby had a whopping seven receptions in 2024 as a sophomore.
While Bigsby was no threat to Etienne’s passing game role, he legitimately improved as a runner, so much so that he was not only better than Etienne, but it wasn’t close. Bigsby averaged 4.6 ypc and became the team’s goal line back, a role he is better built to serve than Etienne.
Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
In this chart, you will note that Etienne and Bigsby, playing in the same offense behind the same offensive line, are on completely different sides. Do not blame the Jaguars for Etienne’s struggles.
Amidst all of these changes, there was another wrinkle. D’Ernest Johnson had assumed a part-time role as the passing-down back. He didn’t completely overtake Etienne, but he did play 23.1% of the snaps. That is undoubtedly enough to further sap Etienne’s fantasy value.
We wound up with a guy drafted in the second round who never posted a single game of 15+ fantasy points. Etienne hit double digits just six times all season. He was certainly not startable in fantasy every week, and in shallower leagues, he was droppable.
Heading into the 2025 season, changes are afoot in Jacksonville. Liam Coen heads a new coaching staff, one that did not draft Etienne or Bigsby. But they did spend an early fourth-round pick on Bhayshul Tuten.
We could be looking at a scenario where Tuten assumes control of this backfield. We could be looking at a scenario where Bigsby is the primary rusher and goal line back, while Etienne and Tuten share passing-down duties. I could go on and on. There’s a wide range of outcomes for everyone here.
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Fantasy managers should be willing to take shots on members of this backfield. We saw Coen utilize Bucky Irving as a true RB1 over the second half of last season. It’s fair to say he’d be willing to do that with any of these backs if they proved worthy.
Bigsby is the one least likely to smash, as he can’t be a three-down back due to his lack of receiving ability. But both Etienne and Tuten have the potential to be that guy.
Receiving work is key, as the Jaguars may need to score points to keep up in games. With defense checking in at No. 31 in PFSN’s Defense+ metric, they may be throwing more than they want to.
Last season, the Jaguars only had a 64% pass rate when trailing by 7+ points. That was the 12th lowest in the league. Even when losing, they were running more than they should have been. We could be in store for more volume and better play calling from a smart young offensive mind.
Based on what we’ve seen in the past three seasons, I do not believe Etienne is anything more than a replacement-level talent. I believe we know what Etienne and Bigsby are. We do not know what Tuten is. Therefore, he’s the one I will rank the highest.
Etienne’s RB33 ADP is certainly reasonable enough that if you want to take a shot on a bounce back, there’s not much downside. I just can’t bring myself to draft a guy I have ranked at RB37 that high, especially when I believe Bigsby is the better runner and Tuten is the better receiver.
You should take shots on members of this backfield. But out of all three of them, Etienne is the one I’m least excited about.
Frank Ammirante’s Travis Etienne Jr. Projection
Travis Etienne is coming off a disappointing season, where he averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. That makes two years in a row where he’s failed to eclipse 4.0 yards per carry. Simply put, the former first-rounder just hasn’t been efficient.
Now, the Jaguars bring in a fourth-round rookie in Bhayshul Tuten, who was handpicked by the new regime. Add in Tank Bigsby, who was clearly the team’s most efficient runner last year, and you have the makings of a committee. There’s even a chance that Etienne is on the outside looking in.
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Despite that, Etienne is still the most expensive Jaguars back in fantasy drafts. That feels like a misprice considering the risk that Tuten and/or Bigsby overtakes him in this backfield. With that in mind, the veteran looks like a clear fade for me. There’s just not enough upside for me here, especially considering it’s likely to be a committee.
