T.J. Hockenson has 82 games on his NFL resume, and that includes a serious knee injury (torn ACL and MCL). That’s not a profile that most fantasy football managers are targeting, but he proved healthy as last season progressed and was a bright spot in the playoff loss to the Rams (five catches on five targets with a touchdown).
The tight end position is led by young history makers and some aging greats – how should you think of Hockenson as he enters his age-28 season?
T.J. Hockenson’s Fantasy Outlook
Hockenson’s resume is impressive. He’s caught 68% of his career targets and has been able to earn volume with consistency. At the tight end position, he’s been a stable source of production for the last half-decade, and by entering this season with a clean bill of health, there are plenty of reasons to think that he can be a key asset on a successful fantasy team.
Highest Pass Rates when a TE was on the field in 2024…
Mike Gesicki 85.3%
Jonnu Smith 79.3%
TJ Hockenson 78.0%
Noah Fant 76.2%
Evan Engram 71.0%
Kyle Pitts 70.7%
Zach Ertz 70.1%
Dalton Schultz 69.3%
David Njoku 69.2%
Jake Ferguson 68.7%
Tyler Conklin 68.7%
Brock Bowers 68.3%— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) May 30, 2025
That said, is the juice worth the squeeze?
We know the upside is capped. Forgetting that his quarterback is an unknown at the professional level and that two of his pass-catching teammates profile as much more impactful per-target players by nature of the routes they run.
Forget that.
Hockenson was scoreless in 10 regular-season games last season (62 targets and 41 catches) in a year where Sam Darnold was a Pro Bowl lock. The goose egg was a bit dramatic, but Hock has scored just 23 times in his career and has missed multiple games in four of six seasons.
What is the true upside?
In a 2024 season that was probably as good as it gets for this offensive environment, Hockenson’s best weekly finish at the position was TE5, and he was better than TE10 on just two occasions. The top of the TE board can’t be touched (Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have elite production under their belts and their physical primes ahead of them), and we suddenly have an incredible amount of similar depth at the once wasteland of a position.
Fantasy Football TE Tiers
- Tier 1: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride
- Tier 2: George Kittle
- Tier 3: Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Hockenson
- Tier 4: Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, David Njoku, and Jonnu Smith
- Tier 5: Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, and Dalton Kincaid
And that’s a conservative list. Where does Isaiah Likely factor into this? Kyle Pitts still exists, meaning someone in your league will talk themselves into him. Jake Ferguson and Tucker Kraft play with pocket passing QBs and some limited pass catcher depth concerns around them.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
My fading of Hockenson is less about Hockenson and more about his price tag. I simply can’t justify paying the premium that comes with his name instead of either paying up for a potential league-winner or being the last team in my league to address the position, taking two cheap bites at the apple, or trusting myself to stream early before hopefully landing on a replacement-level option for an extended stretch.
Mason LeBeau‘s T.J. Hockenson Projection
TJ Hockenson will be a “make-or-break” TE, so I’m not willing to take that risk on the position for my money. He’s not without merit — he’s been a productive player and resides on a great offense. After a full year of being removed from his ACL injury, we should see Hockenson return to prime form. With a young quarterback and a great offensive mind, Hockenson will have plenty of opportunities.
In fact, if Minnesota QB JJ McCarthy ends up being quite good early on, Hockenson could even be a steal at his value and challenge for TE1. However, I’m betting against that outcome. Despite two TE4 finishes, his highs haven’t been that high compared to the other elite players at the position. He has yet to break 1,000 yards and has a career-high six touchdowns.
Both numbers are within range to break with a career year, but it would require exactly that. In this offense with plenty of mouths to feed and an unproven quarterback, I’d expect him to be more efficient than outright productive.
That said, his current price for everything considered is quite fair. At TE5 and going around the ~7th-8th round, you’d be debating him around Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, or teammate Jordan Addison. If you target receivers early and are without a tight end, he’s certainly a reasonable selection at that cost. There might be better value later, but attaching yourself to a good talent in a good offense without overpaying is never bad.
