The fantasy football spotlight burns bright on rookie Cam Ward as he makes his NFL debut against a strong Denver Broncos defense.
The Titans offense enters 2025 with fresh faces and familiar questions, while the Broncos defense looks to spoil the party with their elite secondary. This matchup presents more red flags than green lights for fantasy managers weighing Tennessee assets. Will Ward’s collegiate magic translate against one of the league’s stingiest defenses?
Cam Ward, QB
Over the past decade, top overall picks in Week 1 of their rookie season have averaged 14.3 fantasy points in a very inefficient manner (5.3 yards per pass) that relies more on volume than anything.
Cam Ward is an interesting prospect who has the potential to grow with time, but I’m not willing to ask him to put up viable numbers in his professional debut against arguably the best defense in the league, which has had extended time to prepare.
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What I’ll be watching most closely in Ward’s first start is how willing he is to push the ball down the field and if he can be a threat with his legs (12 rushing touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons). Overall, I’m pessimistic about his ability to contribute in redraft leagues in 2025, but I’d love to be wrong.
Tony Pollard, RB
It’s a no for me, dawg. From 2019-2022, 29 running backs had at least 450 rush attempts, and here is your leaderboard in PPR production relative to expectations:
- Derrick Henry: +22.4%
- Tony Pollard: +18.4%
- Nick Chubb: +16.6%
- Austin Ekeler: +16.2%
- Christian McCaffrey: +16%
That stat right there is the reason you have Tony Pollard on your roster and are looking to me for advice. That production was great, and if you have a time machine, I am all in. Assuming that is not the case, I want no part of plugging in Tennessee’s RB1 against the defense that posted the best success rate against opposing running backs last season.
From 2023-2024, 44 running backs had at least 200 rush attempts, and here is the bottom of that list in PPR production relative to expectations:
- 40. Ezekiel Elliott: -11.8%
- 41. Kareem Hunt: -13.4%
- 42. Pollard: -13.9%
- 43. Javonte Williams: -18.1%
- 44. Alexander Mattison: -21.6%
This is not exactly a list of players I want to invest in. Pollard deserves to be rostered in all formats because of his current role projection with Tyjae Spears on injured reserve (ankle) and the potential for this offense to take a real step forward under rookie QB Cam Ward. However, starting him in Week 1 is a landmine I will happily avoid.
Furthermore, Spears has seen 30.8% of his career touches come via reception, making it no lock that Pollard will pick up garbage-time points should this game get away from the visitors.
Calvin Ridley, WR
Calvin Ridley may feel as if he’s been in the NFL for a decade, but this is only his 30th season, and he enters it as the clear-cut WR1 in an offense that believes it has landed its franchise quarterback.
It’s an easy case to make for a Ridley entering his seventh season to post 1,000 yards for the fourth time in five years and hit seven scores for the fifth time in his career, but I’m proceeding with caution. The fact of the matter is that we have no idea what the target distribution will look like in Tennessee under Ward.
Calvin Ridley’s first touch as a Titan 🔥
pic.twitter.com/xfcudR54ln— PFF Fantasy (@PFF_Fantasy) August 10, 2024
That’s even more so the case against a Denver unit that earned top marks in our Defense+ grading metric in 2024.
You don’t have to plug in Ridley this week in a perfect world. I like the idea of playing him at a very low ownership number in the DFS streets, understanding that this is a tough matchup. However, even tough matchups get busted from time to time (Denver was one of two defenses in 2024 to allow multiple 40-point games to an opposing WR).
The Broncos allowed the fifth-lowest touchdown pass rate last season, probably making Ward’s NFL debut one to forget. That’s why I’m benching him in all season-long formats, taking only GPP shots if I want to leverage the game theory side of that game.
Chig Okonkwo, TE
There are three tight ends in the first half of their career who have 50 catches on a 70% catch rate in the past two seasons: Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, and Chig Okonkwo.
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We are talking about a rare athlete at the position that now has some actual upside in terms of the man tasked with getting him the football. It wouldn’t shock me if we highlight Okonkwo as a great free agent add by the end of the month or as a viable DFS punt play.
Patience. At this point, there’s no reason to target uncertainty at this level when setting your lineup. Okonkwo could enter the top-12 conversation with time if he shows a connection with Ward, but I need to see that first.
