Tetairoa McMillan underwhelmed in fantasy football last season, but still had a very strong rookie year. We frequently see wide receivers take a step forward in their second season. The question for McMillan is whether the Carolina Panthers’ offensive environment will allow it. Should fantasy managers bet on talent or fade the situation?
Should You Draft Tetairoa McMillan in Fantasy Football?
Technically, McMillan is coming off a top-20 finish at the wide receiver position. Of course, that must be taken in the proper context, which is that wide receiver scoring was down across the board last season. In any other year, 12.4 fantasy points per game would be mid-to-low WR3 numbers.
That’s the thing with rookie WR production, though. Oftentimes, the overall performance quality is greater than the fantasy output. Then, in year two, the fantasy output catches up.
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McMillan wasn’t really an impact fantasy asset as a rookie. He only had five weeks of WR1-caliber production (16+ fantasy points) and eclipsed 20 fantasy points just once. In fact, he actually didn’t score in the 20s all season. He had one week of 33 fantasy points and was below 20 in the rest of them. But his season was truly excellent.
McMillan surpassed 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. That places him in a bucket of players with roughly a 90% hit rate. It’s extremely rare for a wide receiver to post 1,000 yards as a rookie and not have a very good fantasy career.
The peripherals last year were also very encouraging. McMillan saw a 25.4% target share, which could potentially tick up a few points. However, he was only targeted on 22.7% of his routes. For a clear WR1, there’s plenty of room for that to increase. Ideally, we’d want to see at least 2.0 yards per route run, but 1.87 is good enough. The question is whether Bryce Young is the guy who can take McMillan to the next level in year two.
McMillan’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
The fantasy community is drafting McMillan pretty much exactly where he went as a rookie. He’s going off the board as the WR16. As discussed above, that’s basically where he finished last year, but his overall finish in PPG was below his ADP expectation, and would be once again if he repeated last season’s numbers.
Can McMillan ascend further? Talent-wise, absolutely. He is going to be a very good wide receiver, if he isn’t already. The concern is whether the production will follow. On that end, I have concerns.
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Outside of that random 466-yard outburst in Week 11, Young had just one other game over 300 yards passing. In total, he threw for fewer than 200 yards a whopping 12 times. It’s really hard to project McMillan for much more than the seven touchdowns he scored last season. Plus, he didn’t have a healthy Jalen Coker to contend with for over half the season.
How does McMillan really improve upon last year’s 70-1,014-7 line? It’s very difficult to see.
I hate fading young, ascending wide receivers. McMillan is a true alpha. He has elite WR1 upside if he ever finds himself in a better offense with a better quarterback. But for 2026, I just can’t get there. He’s my WR22, which feels generous. There are easily 3-5 guys just below him that I could end up pushing ahead of him. As a result, I don’t think I’ll be drafting much McMillan this year.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
