Bryce Young has not lived up to his status as a No. 1 overall pick through two seasons. The Carolina Panthers also did him no favors at wide receiver. Enter 2025 rookie WR1 Tetairoa McMillan. With a classic outside X receiver profile, can McMillan be a fantasy football impact player immediately?
Tetairoa McMillan Fantasy Outlook
The absolutely perfect scenario for a rookie wide receiver is for him to land in a great offense with an outstanding QB and no serious threat to targets. Of course, that’s extremely rare, as the teams drafting the best wide receivers are typically not very good.
McMillan landed about as well as we could ask for under the circumstances. Young, who was not good over much of his first two seasons, looked much improved over the second half of 2024, playing his best football over the season’s final month.
Don’t be surprised when Panthers rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan does this mid game during the season#KeepPoundingpic.twitter.com/bS5pbQX1Ok
— 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑲𝒆𝒆𝒑 🜲. (@PanthersKeep) August 1, 2025
It’s also fair to say that part of Young’s issue was the lack of a true WR1. The Panthers gave him Diontae Johnson last year, but the talented former Steeler (and now former Raven and Texan) was disgruntled and forced his way off the team. That left Young with a WR corps featuring a then-34-year-old Adam Thielen and a first-round rookie bust in Xavier Legette. His best WR wound up being rookie UDFA Jalen Coker.
These are the players McMillan will be competing with for targets. That gives the rookie an unobstructed path to not just the WR1 role, but to what should be at least a 25% target share.
The Panthers did not take McMillan at No. 8 overall to have him ride the bench. McMillan’s talent was evident when he set foot on Arizona’s campus. As a true freshman, McMillan led the Pac-12 in yards per reception (18.0). Sure enough, he took a giant leap forward as a sophomore, catching 90 balls for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns. As a junior, he led the Big 12 in receiving yards with 1,319, including five games with 100+ yards receiving.
At 6’5″, McMillan has all the makings of a classic X receiver. But he’s not just a go-up-and-get-it guy. He’s a polished route runner who should be able to win right away at the NFL level.
While Young only averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game on the season, he was noticeably better over the latter part of the season.
From Weeks 12-18, Young posted games of 16.5, 23.6, 13.5, 14.0, 27.1, 16.9, and 36.4 fantasy points. That’s 21 PPG: QB1 numbers. If he does that again, it won’t be without McMillan’s help.
The only downside is McMillan’s cost. He’s currently the WR28, which is expensive for a rookie wide receiver on what many expect to be a bad team. I do think the Panthers have sneaky playoff contender potential. But we don’t want things like that baked into his price in fantasy drafts.
I’ve mentioned this several times regarding rookie wide receivers, but it’s important to put things in proper context. Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 62 passes for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. That would have been a pretty damn good year for McMillan, but it only got Harrison to 11.6 PPG, the overall WR39.
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On the flip side, we saw Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey end up as three of the best values in fantasy. So it’s not as if there isn’t potential here.
With McMillan’s cost essentially right between where Thomas/McConkey and Harrison went last year, fantasy managers appear to be splitting the difference. McMillan goes in an area of drafts where many players feel the same. You don’t love anyone in particular, but you’re fine with many of them. The rookie is my WR22 and someone I am aggressively targeting this season.
Dan Fornek’s Tetairoa McMillan Projection
McMillan was the most productive receiver in the 2025 draft class in college. During his final two seasons in Arizona, McMillan averaged 87.0 receptions, 1,360.5 receiving yards and 9.0 touchdowns per season. There were some concerns about his speed, but he put those to rest by running a 4.58 40-yard dash at his Pro Day.
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The Panthers drafted McMillan eighth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, immediately giving Bryce Young the outside weapon he needed to take his game to the next level. From Weeks 8 to 18 (Bryce Young’s best stretch of the season), Young was seventh among quarterbacks in average depth of target (9.2) with 68.3% of his throws going to his first read. A player like McMillan, with a big catch radius and the ability to win in contested catch situations, is the perfect complement to his playstyle during that stretch.
McMillan should have no problem earning targets over returning contributors like Thielen, Coker, and Legette. If anything, his presence in the passing game will help those players see better coverages and situations. McMillan will be a target magnet as a rookie on a Carolina offense in negative game scripts. Based on volume, he could easily finish as a top 15 wide receiver as a rookie.
