After five years of wide receiver 2/3 numbers, the Washington Commanders’ Terry McLaurin got the best quarterback of his career and had his best season. What can fantasy football managers expect for a follow-up in 2025? Is McLaurin still a rock-solid WR2 with upside?
Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook
McLaurin is a fascinating case study. After posting over 900 receiving yards as a third-round rookie with a horrible QB situation, he found himself in a class of receivers that is very successful long term.
We should certainly classify McLaurin as a productive NFL pass catcher. He’s in the upper echelon of third-round WRs in NFL history. But I would stop short of saying he ever achieved greatness.
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For the better part of the first five years of his career, McLaurin was largely stagnant. Outside of an anomalous 14.9 fantasy points per game in the offensive bonanza of the 2020 Covid season, McLaurin averaged between 12.3 and 13.7 PPG every season. He was the epitome of “fine.” He was not a difference maker and wouldn’t swing matchups, but he would never be the reason you lose.
Last season, the Commanders finally got McLaurin a real quarterback, and he posted a career-best 15.8 PPG. Those were borderline WR1 numbers, making “Scary Terry” one of the best values of 2024. But did McLaurin really have a breakout season?
McLaurin’s 2024 Season Was a Bit of a Mirage
Based on his fantasy output, McLaurin had a breakout last year. Based on the numbers, he was the same guy he’s always been.
McLaurin’s target share was 23.3%, 34th in the league. That was right in line with what he’s done throughout his career. He was targeted on a mere 22.7% of his routes run, 44th in the league, also in line with career averages.
He had 82 catches for 1,096 yards. Since 2020, here are his yearly catch counts: 87, 77, 77, 79, 82. He was also between 1,002 and 1,191 yards each of those seasons.
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So, what precipitated the spike in fantasy points? It was quite literally one thing: touchdowns. McLaurin scored exactly four or five touchdowns each of the previous four seasons. In 2024, he scored 13 times. If you give him his usual five scores, he would’ve been at 13 PPG, just like always.
McLaurin’s ADP is WR16. He’s a talented player, for sure, but I have a hard time paying that price based on one season with an outlier touchdown rate. I have McLaurin ranked as my WR20, which is slightly below consensus. If he falls below ADP, I’ll take him. But I can’t invest heavily in a player I believe is being drafted close to his ceiling.
Frank Ammirante’s Terry McLaurin Projection
Terry McLaurin is an easy fade for me at cost. Not only is he holding out, but the team also brought in Deebo Samuel, who could take away targets, especially in the red zone.
We saw McLaurin put up an outlier touchdown rate in 2024, which played a major role in the boost in fantasy value. The veteran wideout scored 13 touchdowns in 17 games. From 2021-2023, he had a combined 14 touchdowns in 51 games. Meanwhile, his yards per game in 2024 (64.5) wasn’t much better than 2023 (58.9) and was actually worse than 2022 (70.1).
In other words, you now have to pay a premium price for touchdown production that may not return in 2025. While it’s unlikely that McLaurin will miss time due to a holdout, the touchdown regression and opportunity cost should have you staying away.Â
Remember, this is a player entering his age-30 season, so the decline can also come at any point. Unless you’re building a Commanders stack in Best Ball, let someone else take McLaurin.
