Following Travis Etienne Jr.’s massive flameout, Tank Bigsby emerged as the top fantasy football option in the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield. Now saddled with a competent coaching staff, but increased touch competition, where does Bigsby fall in the hierarchy? Is he actually the one fantasy managers want in 2025?
Tank Bigsby Fantasy Outlook
After his rookie year, it looked as though Bigsby was destined for a career in the UFL. In a Jaguars backfield lacking much in the way of depth, Bigsby was only able to get on the field for 9.8% of the snaps. He had 50 rush attempts his entire rookie season, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Entering his sophomore campaign, he seemed very far away from making an impact.
Credit to Bigsby for making massive improvements during the 2024 offseason. He was still a seldom-used backup over the first month of the season. However, as Etienne proved to be far worse of a player than anyone could have anticipated, the Jaguars gave Bigsby more opportunities, and they stuck.
Bigsby’s first big break came in Week 5 when he turned 14 touches into 129 yards and two touchdowns. But it was Weeks 7 and 8 when Bigsby really cemented himself.
Etienne missed those two contests due to injury. Bigsby got the start, playing about 66% of the snaps in each game. He ran the ball 26 times for 118 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7. He followed that up by turning 20 touches into 86 scoreless yards in Week 8. He wound up averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game.
At that point, the genie was not going back in the bottle. Even though Etienne wasn’t going to go away, Bigsby had earned a weekly set of touches. Most importantly, he became the team’s goal line back.
Tank Bigsby pic.twitter.com/a5bCdvpGWD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 25, 2025
Here’s the issue heading into 2025, though. Etienne is still there and is the presumptive starter. Whether he can perform well enough to keep that role remains to be seen. The Jaguars also drafted Bhayshul Tuten Tuten in the early fourth round, the only member of this backfield hand-picked by Liam Coen’s regime.
This is going to be an open competition. The problem for Bigsby is that his ability to win a share of this backfield is limited. In an absolute best-case scenario, Bigsby is the lead runner with goal line duties. I would say it’s likely he earns goal line back duties.
This would involve Bigsby relegating Etienne and Tuten to satellite back duties and dominating carries. How valuable would this even be? If Bigsby doesn’t score, he’s probably not getting to double-digit fantasy points, as the third-year back earned a 2.4% target share last season. He is a zero in the passing game.
The most likely outcome is that Bigsby will share early down duties with Etienne. At least early in the season, we’re very likely looking at all three backs seeing playing time. It could be a hot hand approach. It could be a 40-30-30 split, which would be a nightmare for fantasy, rendering all three unstartable.
Fantasy managers should be willing to take shots on members of this backfield. We saw Coen utilize Bucky Irving as a true RB1 over the second half of last season. Although it’s difficult to envision Bigsby in that role, as he can’t be a three-down back due to his lack of receiving ability. But both Etienne and Tuten have the potential to be that guy.
Receiving work is key, as the Jaguars may need to score points to keep up in games. With defense checking in at No. 31 in PFSN’s Defense+ metric, they may be throwing more than they want to.
Last season, the Jaguars only had a 64% pass rate when trailing by 7+ points. That was the 12th lowest in the league. Even when losing, they were running more than they should have been. We could be in store for more volume and better play calling from a smart young offensive mind.
Based on what we’ve seen in the past three seasons, I do not believe Etienne is anything more than a replacement-level talent. Bigsby is a vastly superior runner. But, again, his upside is capped by his lack of passing game involvement. Therefore, it’s hard to come up with a compelling reason to draft Bigsby, even at his very cheap RB42 ADP.
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I have Bigsby ranked as my RB47. That late in the rankings, a difference of five spots is not significant. You can certainly draft Bigsby as a touchdown-dependent RB3 with the hopes that this backfield eventually consolidates into a 50/40/10 split. There’s certainly double-digit touchdown upside here. However, the lack of receiving ability caps his ceiling.
There is a price at which Bigsby will be worth it. For me, that is after the backs with greater potential, should they seize control of their backfields, go off the board.
Dan Fornek’s Tank Bigsby Projection
Bigsby was ignored heading into 2024 after a historically bad rookie season with the Jaguars. The 2023 third-round pick had just 50 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. Bigsby struggled to consistently gain yards (2.7 yards per touch) and with fumbles (2), leading to him being benched.
However, Bigsby found his footing as a North/South runner behind a terrible offensive line in 2024. His final stat line (168 carries for 766 yards and seven touchdowns) isn’t inspiring, but it was enough for him to pace the backfield in carries, yards, and touchdowns. Bigsby was just the RB44 in fantasy points per game (8.1), but did have two top 10 scoring weeks, including an RB1 overall finish in Week 5.
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The Jaguars made minor upgrades to their offensive line, but the biggest bump in Bigsby’s potential value heading into 2025 is the hiring of Liam Coen as head coach. Coen is an excellent run game and screen designer and is fresh off a season where he got the most out of Bucky Irving in the backfield.
Bigsby has plenty of competition for touches from Etienne and rookie Bhayshul Tuten, but he is also the most effective downhill runner on the team. Jacksonville will likely be passing a lot (which hurts Bigsby’s overall upside), but he is still the best bet to lead the backfield in touches in 2025.Â
That said, Bigsby will struggle to earn enough fantasy points to stay relevant unless he’s falling into the end zone.
