Following Travis Etienne Jr.’s massive flameout, Tank Bigsby emerged as the top fantasy football option in the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield. Now saddled with a competent coaching staff, but increased touch competition, where does Bigsby fall in the hierarchy? Is he actually the one fantasy managers want in 2025?
Tank Bigsby Fantasy Outlook
After his rookie year, it looked as though Bigsby was destined for a career in the UFL. In a Jaguars backfield lacking much in the way of depth, Bigsby was only able to get on the field for 9.8% of the snaps. He had 50 rush attempts his entire rookie season, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Entering his sophomore campaign, he seemed very far away from making an impact.
Credit to Bigsby for making massive improvements during the 2024 offseason. He was still a seldom-used backup over the first month of the season. However, as Etienne proved to be far worse of a player than anyone could have anticipated, the Jaguars gave Bigsby more opportunities, and they stuck.
Bigsby’s first big break came in Week 5 when he turned 14 touches into 129 yards and two touchdowns. But it was Weeks 7 and 8 when Bigsby really cemented himself.
Etienne missed those two contests due to injury. Bigsby got the start, playing about 66% of the snaps in each game. He ran the ball 26 times for 118 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7. He followed that up by turning 20 touches into 86 scoreless yards in Week 8. He wound up averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game.
At that point, the genie was not going back in the bottle. Even though Etienne wasn’t going to go away, Bigsby had earned a weekly set of touches. Most importantly, he became the team’s goal line back.
Tank Bigsby pic.twitter.com/a5bCdvpGWD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 25, 2025
Here’s the issue heading into 2025, though. Etienne is still there and is the presumptive starter. Whether he can perform well enough to keep that role remains to be seen. The Jaguars also drafted Bhayshul Tuten Tuten in the early fourth round, the only member of this backfield hand-picked by Liam Coen’s regime.
This is going to be an open competition. The problem for Bigsby is that his ability to win a share of this backfield is limited. In an absolute best-case scenario, Bigsby is the lead runner with goal line duties. I would say it’s likely he earns goal line back duties.
This would involve Bigsby relegating Etienne and Tuten to satellite back duties and dominating carries. How valuable would this even be? If Bigsby doesn’t score, he’s probably not getting to double-digit fantasy points, as the third-year back earned a 2.4% target share last season. He is a zero in the passing game.
The most likely outcome is that Bigsby will share early down duties with Etienne. At least early in the season, we’re very likely looking at all three backs seeing playing time. It could be a hot hand approach. It could be a 40-30-30 split, which would be a nightmare for fantasy, rendering all three unstartable.
Fantasy managers should be willing to take shots on members of this backfield. We saw Coen utilize Bucky Irving as a true RB1 over the second half of last season. Although it’s difficult to envision Bigsby in that role, as he can’t be a three-down back due to his lack of receiving ability. But both Etienne and Tuten have the potential to be that guy.
Receiving work is key, as the Jaguars may need to score points to keep up in games. With defense checking in at No. 31 in PFSN’s Defense+ metric, they may be throwing more than they want to.
Last season, the Jaguars only had a 64% pass rate when trailing by 7+ points. That was the 12th lowest in the league. Even when losing, they were running more than they should have been. We could be in store for more volume and better play calling from a smart young offensive mind.
Based on what we’ve seen in the past three seasons, I do not believe Etienne is anything more than a replacement-level talent. Bigsby is a vastly superior runner. But, again, his upside is capped by his lack of passing game involvement. Therefore, it’s hard to come up with a compelling reason to draft Bigsby, even at his very cheap RB42 ADP.
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I have Bigsby ranked as my RB47. That late in the rankings, a difference of five spots is not significant. You can certainly draft Bigsby as a touchdown-dependent RB3 with the hopes that this backfield eventually consolidates into a 50/40/10 split. There’s certainly double-digit touchdown upside here. However, the lack of receiving ability caps his ceiling.
There is a price at which Bigsby will be worth it. For me, that is after the backs with greater potential, should they seize control of their backfields, go off the board.
Cameron Sheath’s Tank Bigsby Projection
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield has been one of the biggest question marks of the entire offseason, with several players in contention for a starting role. Tank Bigsby is a prime candidate, given his impressive showings in 2024, though his lack of receiving prowess may limit his fantasy ceiling.
New head coach Liam Coen revitalized the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ running game last year. After averaging the league’s lowest rushing yards per attempt in 2023 (3.4), the Bucs averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in 2024, second only to the Ravens.
Bigsby will be hoping Coen can repeat the trick this coming season, after proving his explosiveness on the ground last year. Among all running backs with at least 100 carries, Bigsby tied Derrick Henry for the most average yards, after contact, per attempt (2.8).
Travis Etienne will be the favorite to dominate the receiving work in Jacksonville, but Bigsby’s ability on the ground could prove incredibly valuable in Coen’s offense. The 2023 third-round pick saw double-digit carries in just nine games last season, leaving room for immense growth in 2025.Â
Leaving draft boards around the 11th round as the RB42 makes Bigsby a high-potential lottery ticket with an RB2 ceiling in fantasy if he wins the starting job. An easy cut if things don’t work out, there is far more to gain than there is to lose by drafting the Jaguars back.
