Trying to decide whether to start Zay Flowers vs. the Cleveland Browns or Mike Evans at the Houston Texans? Here’s our Week 2 fantasy football projections, plus analysis from PFSN’s Kyle Soppe.
If you’re looking for more advice, head over to our FREE Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer.
Week 2 Projections for Zay Flowers and Mike Evans
Flowers is projected to score 15.1 points in PPR formats, while Evans is projected to score 14.9 points.
We project Flowers to have 5.5 receptions, 69.5 receiving yards, 0.3 receiving TDs, 4.1 rushing yards, and Evans to have 4.5 receptions, 65.2 receiving yards, 0.6 receiving TDs, and 0.1 rushing yards.
Week 2 Fantasy Analysis for Zay Flowers
Week 1 comes with overreactions. It’s what we do. I can say that Juwan Johnson is pacing to break the single-season record for TE receptions or that Keon Coleman is poised to be vintage DeAndre Hopkins and get away with it because the only data point we have this season supports where those insane takes are pointing.
I stay away from that stuff.
Usually.
I think Zay Flowers played the best game of his career on Sunday night, and I fear that everyone is going to forget it. It’ll be pushed aside because Derrick Henry was treating professional athletes like they were mosquitoes or because Josh Allen put on the cape for the final five minutes.
Those are completely viable storylines, but we know both of those guys are monsters. We know they are capable of elite seasons, nevermind isolated snapshots. In the case of Flowers, I don’t remember an instance where I thought he gave the Ravens the star receiver they’ve needed during the Lamar Jackson era.
Until Sunday night.
The final stat line is great (seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown in addition to two carries for eight yards), but I walked away more impressed with the “”how.””
- Deep Targets: 5 (tied for the third most in a game for his career)
- Targets Thrown No More than 3 Yards Down Field: 4
- Third Down Targets: 3
- Targets Following Play-Action: 3
- Targets When Jackson Was Pressured: 3
In essence, every situation in that heartbreaking loss was a Flowers situation. It’s easy to forget that Flowers was a 16.4 yards per catch guy at Boston College from 2020-21 before he traded in some playmaking for volume as a senior. There is a well-rounded skill set there and, in Week 1 at least, Todd Monken seemed to unlock it.
Flowers has been held out of the end zone in all four of his career games against the Browns (99 routes run), but that shouldn’t worry you in the least if you believe we have a new receiver on our hands.
The gravity that the Jackson/Henry tandem creates is unlike any other situation in the NFL. I’m not trying to sell you on Flowers being a better player than Ladd McConkey, but you can’t tell me that there’s not at least a chance that the talent difference is offset by how defenses line up against them.
This week will be a good litmus test. If I’m right and Flowers explodes again, you’re going to want to come back to here next week for what will be a dissertation on his path to winning your league.
The Browns are a high-pressure defense, and that opened them up to the highest opponent average depth of target and the third most YAC allowed per reception a season ago. If Flowers can adjust to what is required of him for this specific matchup, there won’t be a price I’m not willing to pay to acquire him.
Flowers was drafted as a flex this summer. My base rank for this week was WR16, and it’s entirely possible that he’s inched up a few spots depending on when you are reading this.
Week 2 Fantasy Analysis for Mike Evans
Mike Evans hauled in five balls on a team-high eight targets against the Falcons for 51 yards, but it’s hard to not follow your eyes on this one.
Didn’t Emeka Egbuka look like the harder player to guard?
It’s one game, I’m aware of that. But this is a 32-year-old who has an elite prospect coming in, reinforcements on the way eventually, a new offensive system, and a single data point (1.55 yards per route) that would be the worst of his career if extended for the entire season.
Relax, I’m not projecting that, but I am saying that if you feel less confident in your Evans stock today than you did a week ago, I don’t blame you. A.J. Terrell was matched up with him on Sunday, and maybe he has some tricks of the trade from experience that will be tough to repeat (even if Evans has largely done well in that matchup), but this is a WR1 committee to me now with Evans more likely to fade than Egbuka.
Evans remains a starter, though I don’t think you should be surprised if this is a topsy-turvy season for the future Hall of Famer. If that rollercoaster isn’t for you, hope off after the next big game. Evans is my WR19 this week, and Egbuka is my WR22.
Final Verdict: Flowers or Evans?
Based on our projections, Flowers is the better start for Week 2 as he offers a safer floor this week in this same-position matchup.
