The Minnesota Vikings travel south to Illinois face the Chicago Bears in one of the more intriguing games of the season’s opening week. The Bears are expected to take a big leap forward under the guidance of first-year HC Ben Johnson. Meanwhile, the Vikings are embarking on a new era with J.J. McCarthy finally set to take his first regular-season snaps at quarterback.
But how will the Vikings’ running back rotation shake out in Week 1? The team leaned heavily on Aaron Jones Sr. last season, but the offseason addition of Jordan Mason has raised concerns over Jones’ starting role. Here’s how to navigate the situation in fantasy football this week.
Aaron Jones Sr. Fantasy Outlook
Jones was being taken as the RB25 in PPR drafts this year, despite having finished as a top-15 fantasy running back in every year that he’s played over 12 games. Mason’s arrival in Minnesota likely played a significant role in the discount, as did the fact that Jones is now 30 years old.
Age bias will seemingly always create values in fantasy. However, rather than slowing down with age, Jones was handed the most touches of his eight-year NFL career last season, carrying the ball 255 times. He was also targeted 62 times in 2024, and that receiving volume shouldn’t change too much this season.
AARON JONES TAKES IT TO THE OUTSIDE AND WALKS IN UNTOUCHED 😱 pic.twitter.com/uFrvQREYfG
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 20, 2024
What limits Jones’s fantasy ceiling is his lack of touchdowns. He scored seven in 2024 and hasn’t reached double-digit touchdowns in a season since 2021 (10). The increased rushing volume did lead to a dip in efficiency — Jones’s 4.46 average yards per rush attempt was the lowest of his career.
Caution around Jones is understandable, but he was still the RB15 in PPR leagues last year, and such a steep drop in ADP feels like too much. Mason may be the preferred runner around the goal line, but as mentioned before, Jones hasn’t been a prolific scorer of touchdowns for years.
The former Green Bay Packer will still dominate important receiving work over Mason, and should still be the clear RB1 on Minnesota’s impressive 2025 offense.
Jordan Mason Fantasy Outlook
Mason arrived in Minnesota off the back of a breakout year with the San Francisco 49ers, during which he excelled when filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey. The Vikings sent a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 sixth-round pick to the 49ers in return for Mason and a 2025 sixth-round pick.
That’s not the kind of trade compensation that would ordinarily turn heads, but Mason’s outstanding production in his limited starts last season will have fans excited.
Mason was phenomenal for fantasy in the early weeks of the 2024 season. From Weeks 1 to 4, he was the RB5 in PPR, averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game, with 447 rushing yards and three touchdowns to his name.
.@49ers take the lead on the Jordan Mason touchdown!
📺: #SFvsCLE on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/1nlQywax0w— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
Mason’s opportunities dipped as the year went on, as his own injuries allowed then-rookie Isaac Guerendo to step in and flash some ability of his own. McCaffrey eventually returned, immediately rendering the other 49ers running backs unplayable in fantasy.
Mason clearly has talent and would prove a league-winner in fantasy if he could rediscover his early-2024 form, but it’s perhaps telling that the 49ers decided to move on. Many running backs have flashed in brief spells as injury replacements, only to struggle when handed a more substantial workload.
Those who drafted Mason would be wise to hang on to him until the rotation becomes clearer. The Vikings trust Jones, though, and the former 49er will have some work to do to usurp his new teammate as the starter.
Should You Start Jones or Mason This Week?
Only two teams allowed more rushing yards per attempt than the Bears (4.8) did in 2024, suggesting there are fantasy points to be scored from the Vikings’ backfield this week. However, Johnson’s arrival in Chicago sparked a focus on improving the team’s offensive and defensive lines, with Grady Jarrett brought in to beef up the interior on defense.
Still, the Vikings are a great offense and should be able to produce a performance in Week 1. Jones offers the far safer fantasy play of the two, given that Mason’s ceiling for workload is Jones’s floor when both are healthy.
Arguments could be made for Mason’s potential goal-line usage, which will become clearer after a game or two, but given the former 49er’s ADP, managers should have better options for a flex play.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Preview: Head-to-Head, Grades and Prediction for NFL Week 1
The game rounds out Week 1 on Monday night, adding an element of risk to both players, as a late injury will be near-impossible to replace in your lineup. Neither has appeared on the team’s injury report this week, though, and Jones has averaged 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 8.2 yards per target against the Bears in his career.
The former Packer has also tallied 13 total touchdowns in his 15 meetings with Chicago, making him an easy flex play and a reasonably safe RB2. Mason owners may want to wait a week to assess his role in the team, with a season-long backup role still a possibility.
