As we turn to the playoffs, every point matters just a little bit more. Just like in the real game itself, special teams make a world of difference and cannot be something that’s ignored.
Assuming your league hasn’t banned kickers and/or defenses yet (and good on your league), then it remains a position you should be prepared for, whether you’re competing for a title or avoiding the toilet bowl. Here’s the kickers to stash or target for championship weeks.
I’ll also avoid any of the top kickers, as they’ll likely be rostered. That means Jason Myers, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Cameron Dicker, and Brandon Aubrey won’t be discussed further.
What To Look For
It’s easy enough to look for good kickers and hope for the best. The position is random enough that you can live by that method. However, if you’re trying to find an edge, there are a few different things to look for.
For starters, you want kickers on good offenses, though that should go without saying. If his team can move the ball, it’ll give him more opportunities.
Next, we want to aim for dome games. Once we get into December, the weather can get bad in an instant, and even heavy wind games can crush your kicker, or make coaches opt to go for it on 4th down more often.
Lastly, I’m looking at red zone scoring percentages. Either offenses that can’t score once they’re down the field, or matchups against defenses that bend but don’t break. That’s why Texans’ Ka’imi Fairbairn has been so reliable, Houston is 31st in touchdown percentage in the redzone at 43%.
Rarely will teams combine all the right factors. But, the Texans move the ball reasonably well, 326 yards per game (18th), can’t score in the redzone, have a great defense, and thus take the points, and finally have a kicker who hits. If we can get even two of those factors, we’d feel pretty good about our chances.
Week 16
Jake Bates, Detroit Lions
It’s fine if you want a safe and sound kicker instead of aiming for great upside. The Lions have a lot going for them here, but they do stay pretty aggressive on 4th down. Against the Steelers, they may be willing to take the points if they jump out to an early lead.
This is a home game in a dome for the Lions, who still boast an efficient offense. Jake Bates has been money from within 50 yards this season, but has struggled with his deep shots.
He remains a strong Week 17 play as well, facing the Vikings in their dome and the 3rd ranked redzone defense.
Eddy Pineiro, San Francisco 49ers
Eddy Money has been a boon for the 49ers since they’ve moved on from Jake Moody earlier this season. Pineiro was money for fantasy managers, too, before hurting his hamstring and missing time. He’s expected back this week or next, but his missed time should make him available on most waivers.
A Week 16 matchup against the Colts in their dome should see plenty of points come through. The 49ers have moved the ball pretty well, and Indy’s 9th in red zone percentage allowed, holding teams to a near 50/50 split between touchdowns and field goals. Assuming Eddy Pineiro is back and healthy, he’s set up for a strong championship start.
Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals
We’re taking a chance here and hoping that the weather in Miami is tame enough when they match up with Cincinnati. You wouldn’t guess so, but the Dolphins’ defense stiffens up in the red zone, 5th in the league at allowing a touchdown just 52% of the time.
The Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow, move the ball far more efficiently, and Zac Taylor is a pretty conservative coach. Evan McPherson is 100% on the year under 50 yards and still capable from deep historically.
Week 17
Daniel Carlson, Las Vegas Raiders
We’re projecting a slight improvement from this Raiders squad as we head into the winner-takes-all week. The Raiders come home for a dome game against the Giants for what should be a competitive enough match that’ll give Daniel Carlson an opportunity.
While the Giants aren’t a good red-zone defense, the Raiders are equally as bad at scoring from up close. We’re taking a chance that the Raiders will move the ball just well enough to give Carlson a big game.
Harrison Mevis, Los Angeles Rams
Harrison Mevis is a projection as he’s only had two career field goals in the NFL, but at least he’s batting 100.
The Thiccer Kicker is in a good spot with one of the league’s best offenses. The Rams do tend to finish drives, but the Falcons have been above average in the red zone and are pressuring opposing QBs effectively. Playing on the road in Atlanta’s dome makes for ideal conditions.
Cam Little, Jacksonville Jaguars
We know Cam Little has a cannon from out deep, so hopefully he gets a few 50+ opportunities against the Colts. Thankfully, he plays in their dome and not the potentially treacherous wet weather of Jacksonville.
This game could decide the division by this point, so I’d expect the Jaguars to play it relatively safe and take points when given. You can move the ball on the Colts, but as mentioned before, they have a good red zone defense to keep offenses out.
