The Washington Commanders’ wide receiver room faces significant uncertainty after their starting quarterback change. Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. both enter Week 3 with different trajectories and roles within the offense. With Marcus Mariota now under center, what should fantasy football managers do with these two receivers in lineups?
Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook
McLaurin has been a massive disappointment to start the season, failing to reach double-digit fantasy points in either of his first two games despite entering as a consensus WR2 option in fantasy drafts. His 4.7 and 9.8 fantasy point totals represent his worst two-game stretch since early in his rookie season.
The veteran receiver has run a route on every single dropback from his starting quarterback through two weeks, so snap share and role are not the issues limiting his production. McLaurin simply isn’t earning targets despite his consistent involvement in the offensive game plan.
Most concerning for McLaurin’s fantasy outlook is his remarkably low target rate of just 16.3% on his routes run. This efficiency represents a dramatic decline from his typical usage patterns, where he’s historically commanded 20-25% of his team’s passing attempts when healthy.
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His seven receptions on 13 targets for just 75 total yards through two games highlight the lack of downfield opportunities in the current offensive system. The conservative approach has limited McLaurin’s ability to showcase his deep-ball skills and yards-after-catch potential.
With Mariota now taking over under center, McLaurin faces additional uncertainty about his target volume and usage patterns. While his established veteran status should maintain his role as the primary outside receiver, backup quarterbacks often struggle to support multiple fantasy-relevant options consistently.
Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook
Samuel has completely dwarfed McLaurin in both usage and production to open the season, posting 17.4 and 22.6 fantasy points in his first two contests while establishing himself as the offense’s most versatile weapon. His 14 receptions for 121 yards and one touchdown demonstrate his value across multiple alignments.
The veteran’s involvement extends beyond traditional receiving work, as he’s been used as a running back in the past. With Austin Ekeler done for the season due to injury, Samuel could see an uptick in rushing attempts as the team searches for additional ground game production.
Samuel’s average depth of target sits at just 4.7 yards through two weeks, making him more of a safety valve and extension of the running game rather than a downfield threat. This usage pattern aligns perfectly with what backup quarterbacks typically prefer when managing games.
His versatility allows him to contribute from multiple positions, including the backfield, slot, and perimeter alignments. This flexibility makes him an ideal target for Mariota, who can utilize Samuel’s skills without requiring precision timing on complex route concepts.
The veteran’s 18 targets through two games represent a 26.1% target share, demonstrating his central role in the offensive game plan. His ability to turn short passes into substantial gains through yards after catch makes him valuable regardless of quarterback play.
Should You Start McLaurin or Samuel This Week?
The matchup against Las Vegas presents a potentially favorable environment for both receivers, as the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game this season while struggling to limit opposing aerial attacks consistently.
However, the bigger concern involves Mariota’s ability to support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers simultaneously. While the former Tennessee and Atlanta quarterback has experience and ranks among the more capable backups in the league, he remains a backup for valid reasons.
This should be a game the Commanders can control at home against a Raiders team that has struggled on both sides of the ball. Washington’s ability to lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt and establish its ground game could limit overall passing volume for both receivers.
Typically, backup quarterbacks lean more heavily on their primary target when forced into action. However, given McLaurin and Samuel’s vastly different skill sets, Samuel’s low average depth of target makes him more of an easy button for Mariota’s decision-making process.
Samuel functions as the clear safety valve with his underneath routes and screen game involvement, providing Mariota with high-percentage throws that require minimal risk. His ability to create after the catch transforms simple completions into meaningful gains.
Fantasy managers probably cannot bench McLaurin given his draft position and established talent level, but Samuel represents the unquestionably superior fantasy option at this point in the season. His versatility and target volume provide both a higher floor and ceiling compared to McLaurin’s current struggles.
