Tampa Bay’s receiving corps approaches full health for a crucial Thursday Night Football divisional matchup. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka all seek productive outings in different stages of their seasons. Which Buccaneers receivers warrant fantasy football trust for Week 15?
Mike Evans’ Fantasy Outlook
Evans is set to return after missing six games with a broken collarbone. Over the first three weeks of the season, Evans saw 28 targets, firmly establishing that he remains the team’s WR1. He has shown everything he needed to show in practice to be activated off injured reserve for Thursday night’s matchup.​
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After a four-game absence due to a hamstring strain, fantasy managers thrust Evans back into Week 7 lineups only to see him depart with the collarbone injury before catching a pass.
Baker Mayfield averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game over those first three games with Evans. Since Week 7, Mayfield is averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game.​ It’s safe to say Evans will be a big help.
Evans practiced in a limited capacity throughout the week leading up to Thursday’s contest. The Buccaneers are expected to officially activate him from injured reserve prior to kickoff. His return comes at a critical juncture with Tampa Bay tied atop the NFC South at 7-6.​
Chris Godwin’s Fantasy Outlook
Godwin has dealt with injury issues of his own throughout the year. He didn’t debut until Week 3 due to offseason ankle surgery. Then he played a mere two games before suffering a hairline fracture in his fibula, which cost him the next five weeks.​
Since returning in Week 12, Godwin has seen his usage increase each week. Last week, he caught five of eight targets for 55 yards and looked the best he has all season. Through five games played, he has caught 16 passes on 31 targets for 194 yards and zero touchdowns.​
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Godwin has emerged as Mayfield’s safety blanket in the slot. His role should only increase with Evans back to play on the outside. The veteran receiver has averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game in his limited action, ranking as the WR6 in points per game.​
Emeka Egbuka’s Fantasy Outlook
Egbuka was looking like a league winner to start the season, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game over his first five contests. He caught two touchdown passes in the season opener against Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Since that hot start, Egbuka has cracked double-digit fantasy points just once.​
The volume has been there. Egbuka’s 26.4% target share ranks 14th in the league. It’s just been an unfortunate combination of Mayfield being inaccurate and ill-timed drops from the rookie. He has failed to reach the 60-yard threshold in four straight games.
Egbuka’s catchable target rate sits at just 58%, placing him 95th among NFL players. Clearly, it’s not entirely his fault. But regardless, the efficiency has completely vanished after his explosive opening to the season.
Should You Start Evans, Godwin, or Egbuka This Week?
Atlanta presents a prime spot for all three wide receivers to get their seasons back on track. The Bucs and Falcons historically play high-scoring games. So this matchup could feature plenty of scoring. Atlanta allows the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers.​
It’s a favorable matchup for three talented players, but there’s significant uncertainty. How much will Evans play in his first game back? It’s hard to imagine he immediately returns to a full-time role. The Bucs took it easy with Godwin both times he returned, and they did the same with Bucky Irving.​
Still, Evans is talented enough to post WR2 numbers on limited volume. Expect to see him on the field in crucial situations, particularly third downs and near the goal line. Just don’t treat him as a must-start just yet. He’s more of a WR3.​
Godwin is probably the safest of the bunch. He has been emerging as Mayfield’s safety blanket, and his slot role should only increase with Evans back to play on the outside with Egbuka. Godwin’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the other two, but he brings a higher floor.​
Egbuka is the toughest one. He has basically been unstartable in seven of his last eight games. But it’s such a strange phenomenon. To open the season, he was getting by with elite efficiency on limited volume. Then, the volume showed up but he stopped producing. It defies logic.​
This is a rare instance where the return of Evans might actually help Egbuka. His seven-game streak of at least eight targets may come to an end, but he should have an easier time getting open with the defense having to deal with both Evans and Godwin for the first time all season.
Given how poorly Egbuka has played, fantasy managers probably want to bench him. It’s not a bad move. Just don’t be surprised when he has his best game in weeks in a good matchup with the Buccaneers offense finally fully healthy.​
