The Buffalo Bills’ wide receiver room continues to create headaches for fantasy managers navigating unpredictable usage patterns. Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman represent the primary pass-catching options in an offense that spreads targets across multiple players weekly. Can fantasy football managers trust either Bills receiver against New England?
Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook
Shakir has been a solid fantasy contributor, averaging 11.8 points per game through four contests. However, his usage metrics paint a concerning picture that doesn’t align with his production. His 16.8% target share and 19.2% targets-per-route-run rate both rank outside the top 50, while he runs routes on just 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks.
With a 5.4 average depth of target, Shakir depends heavily on either volume or yards after catch for fantasy relevance. His impressive 43-yard touchdown last week provided a significant boost, but that play was largely fluky rather than sustainable. Outside of that explosive gain, Shakir hasn’t demonstrated consistent YAC ability that would justify his current production levels.
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The Bills’ spread-the-ball-around approach creates additional obstacles for consistent target distribution. Shakir ran just 22 routes last week while Dalton Kincaid managed 16, and three other players saw double-digit route totals. Despite this committee approach, no Buffalo pass catcher received more than five targets, highlighting the team’s reluctance to feature any single receiver.
Buffalo’s offensive philosophy under the current leadership emphasizes ball distribution rather than target concentration, making weekly projections extremely difficult for any individual pass catcher.
Keon Coleman Fantasy Outlook
Coleman’s season averages tell a misleading story, as his 10.8 fantasy points per game mask dramatic inconsistency since his explosive debut. The rookie was an elite WR1 during Buffalo’s 41-40 shootout victory over Baltimore in Week 1, posting 25.6 fantasy points. But that performance now appears to be a clear anomaly rather than a sustainable baseline.
Since that opening-week explosion, Coleman has run at least 20 fewer routes in every subsequent game while failing to reach even 8.0 fantasy points in any contest. His target counts of three, four, and four over the past three weeks demonstrate the coaching staff’s reduced confidence in his abilities or role within the offense.
Coleman managed just 22 routes last week, two more than Shakir, despite their different roles in the offensive hierarchy. This similar usage suggests neither receiver has established a clear separation in terms of weekly opportunity or coaching staff preference.
The sophomore’s 6’3″ frame provides red-zone appeal, but Buffalo’s touchdown distribution has been completely random week to week, making it impossible to project which pass catcher might find the end zone.
Should You Start Shakir or Coleman This Week?
New England allows the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, creating a neutral rather than favorable matchup for both Buffalo pass catchers. With the Bills installed as heavy home favorites, they likely won’t need extensive passing volume to control the game comfortably.
This projected game-script scenario means another low-volume passing day for Allen in an offense that already distributes targets extensively among multiple receivers. The combination of reduced throwing attempts and committee target distribution creates significant obstacles for both Shakir and Coleman to achieve meaningful fantasy production.
Given the widespread injuries and bye-week absences across the league, Shakir becomes startable as a desperation-flex option due to his slightly more consistent role. His slot positioning and established rapport with Allen provide marginally better weekly reliability than Coleman’s boom-or-bust profile.
Coleman belongs on fantasy benches until he demonstrates the ability to recapture his Week 1 form or establishes more consistent target volume. His recent struggles and diminished route participation make him unsuitable for confident lineup deployment in most fantasy formats.
