The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
The Seahawks have won three straight, and Sam Darnold has scored 15.8-16.7 fantasy points in each of them. He’s actually playing better than I expected during his first month with the team, but this team isn’t going to ask him to put up top 15 fantasy numbers.
The rushing upside is minimal at best, and with no more than 26 pass attempts in three of four, the efficiency almost has to be at Hall of Fame levels to make him worthy of our interest.
We saw what he is capable of on the second drive on Thursday night, which concluded with consecutive, perfectly placed balls. If you’ve tied your wagon to Caleb Williams this year, Darnold is a viable streaming candidate against a defense that has the potential to eliminate the run game.
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That’s what he is in our game: a streamer that you use when needed, but not one that you bank on for anything more.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Kenneth Walker touched the ball in three of Seattle’s first three plays last week, a run of usage that included a well-designed pass play that gained 29 yards. On the second drive of the game, Sam Darnold put the ball in his stomach for three straight carries, and they gained 9, 21, and 8 yards.
There is no denying that Walker is the upside play in this backfield over Zach Charbonnet. There’s not much debate about that, but he’s also the running back most likely to put the Seahawks behind the chains, and that is where this gets complicated.
I’m going to prefer Walker to Charbonnet because I like to have access to a week-winner at the running back position. For this matchup specifically, I like the idea of the perimeter runner. With Darnold playing at a high level, Walker feels poised to expose a thinly spread defense in a big way sooner than later. And I want to be there for when it happens.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
A foot injury cost Zach Charbonnet in Week 3 against the Saints, but I can’t help but think that was as much a matter of strategy as a limitation. Seattle was highly likely to win that game with or without the end of their committee, and with a short week on deck, was it possible that the Seahawks were intentional with his recovery?
Walker got the first run on Thursday night and looked good. Through two drives, he had picked up 35 yards on his five rushes while Charbonnet was stuffed on a fourth-down effort for his only carry.
The rest of the game, however, went basically to script. Walker either lost yardage or picked up five-plus yards on the majority of his carries, while Charbonnet was more of a consistent runner.
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Walker’s strong start left him with a 33-26 edge in snaps and 20-14 in touches, but it was Charbonnet who finished with more fantasy points, thanks to a hard-nosed TD plunge.
Suppose a second score doesn’t come off the board due to a Jaxon Smith-Njigba holding penalty, one that ultimately didn’t impact the play. In that case, we are probably having a slightly different conversation.
Both running backs carry risk this week, but I think both are viable flex plays against a top-five rush defense in all metrics. Charbonnet carries a more narrow range of weekly outcomes, and given that he is the primary red zone/passing-down option, a double-digit point performance in this spot is a reasonable expectation.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
This was never going to be a perfect season, and I don’t think any of us were under that illusion. After clearing 95 receiving yards in three straight to open the season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was largely kept quiet on Thursday night. Until he wasn’t.
Despite being held without a target in the first half, “JSN” salvaged his day with a few big plays late, finishing with 79 yards on his four receptions against the Cardinals. Slowing him for 60 minutes is proving to be a task that NFL defenses aren’t up for, and the skill set is expanding with Darnold under center.
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Smith-Njigba has a 35-yard catch in all four contests this season, doubling the number of games with such a splash play from a season ago. He’s not a Malik Nabers-type that falls into 8-10 targets, but as long as the Seahawks continue to view him as a hinge player (and why wouldn’t they?), his status as a locked-in top 15 receiver is here to stay.
Smith-Njigba had three carries in the Week 4 win (two more traditional tosses and one a quick screen-type of thing that was technically backwards), and that speaks to just how vital his involvement is to the success of this team that has won three straight after a tough Week 1.
If last week was something of a floor performance, we are in for a big season, and you’re going to be earning a monster profit based on the price you paid this summer.
Cooper Kupp, WR
A third-down, zone-beating route on the second drive from Cooper Kupp set up the AJ Barner touchdown and a scripted red zone catch in motion Thursday night against the Cardinals, but that was about it. For the third time in four games, the former fantasy god was held under 35 receiving yards, and we are coming up on 10 months since his last TD.
I’m not going to say that Kupp is washed, but I will say that he’s unlikely to win in a big way for himself. That is, he’s going to produce at the levels that the Seahawks pencil in for him and nothing more.
Entering the season, there was a world in which we’d have taken that, but with Tory Horton appearing capable of handling an increased workload, it’s not going to be enough.
Kupp has been on the field for 71.6% of Seattle’s offensive snaps this season, and that’s enough to keep him on rosters. He, however, is unlikely to grace as a top-35 receiver for me at any time in the near future, even with bye weeks now a factor.
Tory Horton, WR
The idea of Tory Horton (6’2″ with athletic tools) is solid in a Seahawks offense that is looking for juice next to Smith-Njigba — we just aren’t all the way there yet.
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The rookie caught touchdown passes in Weeks 2-3 and just missed a chunk play in Arizona on Thursday night when Seattle perfectly disguised their shot play with three TEs and got him singled up downfield.
The more I see things like that, the more I think that Horton is the WR2 in Seattle by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, and that could land him on the flex radar. But we aren’t there yet. Horton has yet to earn five targets in a game this season, and that creates far too low a floor.
