The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold has completed 20+ passes in three straight games after having four such games this season prior, so maybe this offense is soft-launching an increase in responsibilities for their QB, but it’s too little too late at this point.
From Weeks 10-15, Darnold had only two Top 20 finishes, and with that floor and a vulnerable running defense on the docket, a game like what we saw him give us against the Titans a month ago (244 yards and two TDs) feels like something of a ceiling outcome, and that’s not going to get it done.
Darnold’s INT% when pressured this season (5.6%) is nearly triple that of when he is not pressured (2%), and that’s why Seattle works to establish the run before letting their QB cook. We saw him make plays down the stretch to beat the Rams on Thursday night: that doesn’t change the fact that this team isn’t interested in ramping up his volume to give us a high enough floor to feel good about.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
On the heels of three straight finishes outside of the top-30 at the position, Kenneth Walker hits his first 40+ yard play of the season against a stingy divisional rival on a short week.
He then scores from even further out later.
Because, of course.
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I’d love to hop on here and tell you to lock in Walker. Tell you that all of our dreams are set to come true at the perfect time and that your loyalty will pave the way for a fantasy championship.
It could, but that was always the case. Walker is still splitting reps with Zach Charbonnet and uses less as the closer Seattle gets to the end zone. This season, his average expected PPR point total is a tick over 10.0, and on Thursday, it was 9.6; he just happened to hit a few home runs.
I think he’s more valuable than Charbonnet, but the gap isn’t huge, and a split situation carries a wide range of outcomes from an all-or-nothing runner like this. The Panthers’ run defense has collapsed over the second half of the season, and this strong showing gives me a little hope that we see his role extended, but we’ve seen that not really be the case in the past.
Walker is a top-20 RB for me this week: I’d just caution against displaying too much confidence. The Niners are a bottom-5 defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before contact to running backs, and while I think Swift is more likely to cash in on that weakness, there’s no reason that Monangai can’t leverage it and make a red zone opportunity count in a big way.
Cooper Kupp, WR
It wasn’t the volume of vintage Cooper Kupp on Thursday night against the Rams, but there were signs that he could make a play or two that swings a game in January (or February??).
The toe drag catch late in the game was the highlight that jumps to mind, but how about this offense trusting him with a shovel pass in the first quarter inside the five-yard line?
He was on the field for 92.1% of their offensive snaps last week, a new season high, and still managed just a 12.9% target share. Kupp is to be viewed as a quality, not quantity, guy for this offense, and that’s just not appealing for us, given the limited upside (three end zone targets and a 15.6% deep target rate).
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The man can still very much play, but this offense isn’t built for him to hold even deep league flex value with your championship on the line.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Of all the crazy Jaxon Smith-Njigba stats out there, I think I’ve found the craziest.
Three times this season, including Thursday night, he’s been shut out in the reception department for an entire half.
Three times, a team has executed their pregame plan to perfection and just completely wiped him off the stat sheet.
He’s one of the very best in the game, and his blend of athleticism and precision makes him a fantasy first-rounder next season that has every bit the potential to lead you to a title this week. The knock on this offense as a whole is what happens when Sam Darnold gets pressured, but JSN has turned his 20 pressured receptions into a cool 364 yards and three scores.
Defenses can scheme up ways to take him for periods of time, but this offense has proven too savvy for that to last over 60 minutes, and that’s all we care about.
Rashid Shaheed, WR
It’s happened twice now where Rashid Shaheed bails you out with a return touchdown, and while that’s very much a part of what he brings to the table, it needs to be additive to a stable profile, not the entire profile for me to be interested.
For the record, I think there is a singular play that Shaheed will make this postseason that changes the complexion of the contest in a significant way. That said, it’s hard to know when it’s coming, and that has him off my radar when it comes to setting Super Bowl lineups.
In seven games with the ‘Hawks, he has seven targets inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. That’s a tough way to make a living, given the volume that Jaxon Smith-Njigba soaks up in this slow-moving offense.
It stinks because he’s a fun player, but Shaheed holds far more value to Seattle than he does to you.
AJ Barner, TE
Colby Parkinson was the TE that came into Thursday night with the steam of the fantasy community behind him, but maybe we (myself included) fell into the recency trap.
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Parkinson was scoring at a Rob Gronkowski level, and that was fun, but he was also one of three tight ends on the field for the Rams consistently. AJ Barner may have entered the game with lesser stats, but with both in the same streaming tier at the position, his lack of true competition probably should have been valued at a higher level.
In the overtime win, he was responsible for 36 of Seattle’s 46 tight end routes and was the only TE to earn a target. He’s earned 36 targets over his past six games, seen an end zone look in three of five, caught 12-of-14 third-down passes, and moved the chains on nearly half of his receptions this season.
Barner isn’t flashy, but he’s a reasonable floor play in an offense that really has yet to show us that they are confident in a WR2 (Cooper Kupp looked as good as he has recently, and that meant four targets earned).
