Well, that escalated quickly. Saquon Barkley took his talents to the City of Brotherly Love, and a Lombardi trophy followed. All he did was run for over 2,000 yards and scored 15 times in 16 games while somehow leaving gas in the tank to touch the ball 104 times during the Super Bowl run.
Barkley doesn’t have to get better – if he can repeat his 2024 production, fantasy football managers would take it in a heartbeat.
Can he?
Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Outlook
As you’re well aware, not a single number that Barkley produced last season is going to help you this season. That isn’t ground-breaking analysis, but it’s easy to fall in love with a sports car and not look under the hood to see if it’s actually a good purchase.
Sometimes, it’s all flash and no substance. The brakes are shot, the gas mileage is underwhelming, and./or 100 other similar examples that make sense to car people – I’m a fake sports analyst, not a mechanic, what do you want from me?
Other times, it’s Saquon Barkley.
He averaged 62.5% more red zone touches per game last season than he did during his career with the New York Giants while setting new career marks in both rush gain rate (82.9%) and 10+ yard rush gain rate (13.4%).
When Saquon Barkley put the entire USC defense on skates ⛸ pic.twitter.com/UKjWn08PWp
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) July 9, 2025
The deeper you dive, the more sold you get. This time last year, whispers circulated about his usage rate in scoring position and why that made him an iffy investment at cost. Even if Jalen Hurts is doing his thing, Barkley averaged 1.7 touches inside the 10-yard line per game, far from a negative after getting under one attempt per game in his final three seasons with the G-Men.
In essence, the good was better than we thought about his changing of NFC East jerseys, and none of our worries were nearly as impactful as feared. He’s now averaged at least 20 touches in five of his six healthy seasons and showed nothing but a full-tank down the stretch of 2024 – 25+ carries in three of four playoff games (the exception benign the 32-point win over the Commanders in the NFC Title game (the end zone got in the way on three of his 15 carries, otherwise the drives are longer and the volume.
- Volume, check.
- Viable in close, check.
- Versatile, check.
Oh, did I mention that he scored 62.9 fantasy points on gains of 55+ yards? No big deal, that was just 8.8 more points than Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry (RBs 2-3 in that metric) combined.
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If you don’t want to spend your first pick on a running back, I get it. Shelf life, injuries, committees, blah blah blah.
There’s a top tier at the position that is three players wide, and I think it’s essentially impossible to reach any of them. That’s not to say that going with a “safer” receiver in the first round is a bad idea – I’d just caution against blindly fading a ball carrier or penciling in extreme regression for an elite season.
Dan Fornek’s Saquon Barkley Projection
Barkley was a league winner despite being a second-round pick in fantasy drafts. He finished as the RB1 in fantasy (22.2 PPG) and was the number four player regardless of position (quarterbacks included). Barkley had 345 carries for 2,005 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 16 games played. He also added 33 receptions for 278 yards and two touchdowns.
Barkley averaged his highest yards per carry (5.8) and yards per touch (6.0) behind the Eagles’ dominant offensive line. His expected points added (28.3) were nearly double the next closest running back (Derrick Henry, 15.7). He also finished first in yards before contact (3.0), 10+ yard runs (46), and 10+ yard rushing touchdowns (9). Barkley was able to dominate fantasy football despite not seeing his typical workload in the passing game. He also converted just two of his 17 goal-line attempts into touchdowns.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
The veteran running back has a chance to repeat as the RB1 in 2025, but it is far from a slam dunk. Barkley’s big production was heavily reliant on explosive plays, which aren’t sticky year-over-year. Jalen Hurts typically does not check it down, so Barkley won’t be able to rely on receiving production to compensate for a loss in explosives. Additionally, the tush push is still a legal play, which caps his upside inside the five-yard line. Finally, Barkley is coming off a season (including the playoffs) with over 500 offensive touches, and his injury risk will be higher in 2025 with that workload and a condensed offseason.
Barkley is deserving of being a first-round pick and can repeat as the RB1 overall, but a lot will have to break away again in 2025. He’s still worthy of his lofty draft status since his floor is a top-five fantasy running back if healthy.
