Just 12 months ago, the story surrounding Sam Darnold was whether his presence would tank the value of Justin Jefferson and company. Now, he’s inked to a nine-figure contract with expectations attached to every trip to the bank.
In a different situation, can Darnold put up similar numbers and prove to be a lineup staple?
Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook
What are we really supposed to do here? I love data as much as anyone, and I’m just as confused as you. We entered 2024 with a nice sample size (66 games with three different franchises), showing Darnold as an actual bust. Not just a disappointment, a bust.
- 2019 to 2023: 59.7% complete, 78.3 passer rating, 1.1 TD/INT ratio
- 2024: 66.2% complete, 102.5 passer rating, 2.9 TD/INT ratio
With zero moving pieces, 2025 was going to be a difficult projection for Darnold, as he is a high-pedigree player, but still with more bad than good on his resume.
But, of course, everything has changed. Gone is the Kevin O’Connell system and the greatness of Justin Jefferson. Gone is the hyper-scoring environment that came with playing in the NFC North. Gone are the majority of his games coming indoors.
That all means that buying into Darnold not only requires you to believe in what he did a season ago, but you have to believe in him overcoming the subtraction of those points of fantasy insolation.
PFF assigns blame for every pressure.
Guys who were under a lot of pressure, but it usually wasn’t their fault:
-Geno Smith
-CJ Stroud
-Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/IlsvqbXCO7— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2025
That’s a tough sell.
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator reflects as much, as he’s hardly ever drafted in standard leagues.
If I’m going to play the devil’s advocate, it’s rooted that we are talking about a 28-year-old coming off a special season. It’s supported by the fact that he had 11 games last season with a 10+ yard rush or 3+ touchdown passes, a level of fantasy production that can navigate the amount of change that Darnold is facing. It’s that Geno Smith completed a career-high 70.4% of his passes in executing this offense a season ago.
It’s a thin case, but it’s far more likely to come through than where we stood this time last year, and there is the mental struggle. We all just let Darnold pass by us for free and were burned as a result. Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears to be on a star trajectory, Cooper Kupp is still a scoring threat, and this backfield has a pair of talented options that can produce as pass catchers. Oh, and the end-of-season schedule lines up very well.
- Week 14 at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 17 at Carolina Panthers
That Panthers game will come on extended rest as a result of playing the week prior on Thursday night, making him an intriguing option to best ball managers and in deeper redraft leagues where the free agent pool is awfully shallow late in the year when the money is earned.
No, I’m not drafting Darnold.
No, I’m not dismissing Darnold.
Both things can be true, and I think that’s the right approach. Generally speaking, I don’t leave my drafts with two quarterbacks. Darnold has a Week 8 bye and, unless he’s literally repeating last season at every turn, something the market is telling us to bet against, it’s very possible that he will be a free agent as we enter November.
By then, you’ll have plenty of data to make an informed decision. You’ll not only have his seven games, but you’ll also know where you stand in your league and at the quarterback position. If you have an option that you plan on riding-or-dying with, there’s no need to go further; you don’t need the depth.
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But if you’re streaming the position and/or worried about your starter being able to sustain his viability as winter approaches, Darnold makes sense as an add with the hope that he peaks at the optimal time.
Fantasy football isn’t black and white. You’re not doing your job if you regress Darnold to his pre-Vikings levels and call it a day. The successful fantasy managers leave no stone unturned and remain open-minded.
Don’t lose track of Darnold, even if you’re not interested in drafting him.
Frank Ammirante’s Sam Darnold Projection
Sam Darnold finished as QB10 in fantasy points per game last year, smashing even the wildest expectations in his lone year with Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings. Despite this strong finish, Darnold is currently available outside of the top 25 quarterbacks in fantasy drafts.
Fantasy players are justifiably concerned with the downgrade from O’Connell and the Vikings to the Seahawks. After all, Seattle has a porous offensive line with a worse group of weapons. However, it’s worth noting that new playcaller Klint Kubiak comes from the Shanahan coaching tree, just like O’Connell.
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In other words, as we saw last year, Darnold will be comfortable in this scheme, which clearly suits his talents. While another QB10 finish is unlikely, Darnold is a great bet to provide profit at his current cost.
Even though he won’t have WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Seattle pass catcher Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks poised for a career year. Plus, we saw what Kubiak did with the Saints offense early last year when QB Derek Carr and WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were all healthy. Don’t sleep on Darnold this year.
