Just 12 months ago, the story surrounding Sam Darnold was whether his presence would tank the value of Justin Jefferson and company. Now, he’s inked to a nine-figure contract with expectations attached to every trip to the bank.
In a different situation, can Darnold put up similar numbers and prove to be a lineup staple?
Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook
What are we really supposed to do here? I love data as much as anyone, and I’m just as confused as you. We entered 2024 with a nice sample size (66 games with three different franchises), showing Darnold as an actual bust. Not just a disappointment, a bust.
- 2019 to 2023: 59.7% complete, 78.3 passer rating, 1.1 TD/INT ratio
- 2024: 66.2% complete, 102.5 passer rating, 2.9 TD/INT ratio
With zero moving pieces, 2025 was going to be a difficult projection for Darnold, as he is a high-pedigree player, but still with more bad than good on his resume.
But, of course, everything has changed. Gone is the Kevin O’Connell system and the greatness of Justin Jefferson. Gone is the hyper-scoring environment that came with playing in the NFC North. Gone are the majority of his games coming indoors.
That all means that buying into Darnold not only requires you to believe in what he did a season ago, but you have to believe in him overcoming the subtraction of those points of fantasy insolation.
PFF assigns blame for every pressure.
Guys who were under a lot of pressure, but it usually wasn’t their fault:
-Geno Smith
-CJ Stroud
-Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/IlsvqbXCO7— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2025
That’s a tough sell.
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator reflects as much, as he’s hardly ever drafted in standard leagues.
If I’m going to play the devil’s advocate, it’s rooted that we are talking about a 28-year-old coming off a special season. It’s supported by the fact that he had 11 games last season with a 10+ yard rush or 3+ touchdown passes, a level of fantasy production that can navigate the amount of change that Darnold is facing. It’s that Geno Smith completed a career-high 70.4% of his passes in executing this offense a season ago.
It’s a thin case, but it’s far more likely to come through than where we stood this time last year, and there is the mental struggle. We all just let Darnold pass by us for free and were burned as a result. Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears to be on a star trajectory, Cooper Kupp is still a scoring threat, and this backfield has a pair of talented options that can produce as pass catchers. Oh, and the end-of-season schedule lines up very well.
- Week 14 at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 17 at Carolina Panthers
That Panthers game will come on extended rest as a result of playing the week prior on Thursday night, making him an intriguing option to best ball managers and in deeper redraft leagues where the free agent pool is awfully shallow late in the year when the money is earned.
No, I’m not drafting Darnold.
No, I’m not dismissing Darnold.
Both things can be true, and I think that’s the right approach. Generally speaking, I don’t leave my drafts with two quarterbacks. Darnold has a Week 8 bye and, unless he’s literally repeating last season at every turn, something the market is telling us to bet against, it’s very possible that he will be a free agent as we enter November.
By then, you’ll have plenty of data to make an informed decision. You’ll not only have his seven games, but you’ll also know where you stand in your league and at the quarterback position. If you have an option that you plan on riding-or-dying with, there’s no need to go further; you don’t need the depth.
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But if you’re streaming the position and/or worried about your starter being able to sustain his viability as winter approaches, Darnold makes sense as an add with the hope that he peaks at the optimal time.
Fantasy football isn’t black and white. You’re not doing your job if you regress Darnold to his pre-Vikings levels and call it a day. The successful fantasy managers leave no stone unturned and remain open-minded.
Don’t lose track of Darnold, even if you’re not interested in drafting him.
Frank Ammirante’s Sam Darnold Projection
Sam Darnold is the ultimate example of nature versus nurture for an NFL quarterback. The former third-overall pick in 2018 was left out in the cold with a New York Jets team devoid of coaching or talent. It took time to recover, but in Minnesota, behind an excellent offensive mind and a stacked supporting cast, Darnold managed to have a career season that revived his career.
First, we must determine if last year’s Darnold is here to stay. After a season with Kyle Shanahan and then another with Kevin O’Connell, it is possible that Darnold turned the corner and developed to a level he hadn’t in his first five seasons. Young QBs are often not given the benefit of the doubt, but time to regain their confidence and learn from quality coaches could have had a huge impact.Â
However, we likely saw where his ceiling ended. An excellent season quickly fell apart in the season’s final two games, both of which were playoff-type scenarios. As protections broke down, Darnold panicked, and the offense fell apart. Any quarterback capable of giving you 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns is worth his place in the league, but his upside as a legit playoff performer is still highly questioned.Â
That said, fantasy owners didn’t need him for Week 18 and the Wild Card round. He was one of the biggest steals in any league, especially for Superflex formats. So, can he continue his pace? The Vikings gave him nearly everything a quarterback could want: elite receiving options, strong protection, and an excellent play caller and scheme. How much of that does he have in Seattle?
The Seahawks are betting big on WR Cooper Kupp. The 32-year-old Washington native can be one of the best receivers in the league, but his body has slowly given out, and he no longer has HC Sean McVay running the offense.Â
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a young and ascending talent and likely the most reliable option, but he’ll need to take another step forward to be someone the Seahawks can rely on to carry the offense. Options get quite thin after them. Names like Noah Fant, Elijah Arroyo, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling may be in a primary role.Â
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Pass protection has long been an issue in Seattle. OT Charles Cross has been a bright spot, but they’ll need first-round rookie Grey Zabel to produce quickly to provide stability on the interior. Now, what can we expect from the young offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak? His offense in New Orleans took off early in the season before injuries decimated the team. He’s seen little time as a play caller in the NFL, but he runs a popular scheme that Darnold has been a part of the past two years.Â
I believe there’s enough here for Darnold to have success again. This is not the airtight offense of the Vikings last year, but there’s enough hope and talent at every level. If Darnold really did take a step forward, then I wouldn’t count on him bottoming out at his previous levels.Â
However, a lot of dominoes need to fall into place for him to see near the same caliber of play as last season, and plenty of pitfalls remain. I wouldn’t count on or rely on Darnold season-long, but I think he’ll be a reasonable QB2 and consistent streaming option.
