Roschon Johnson was a low-usaged, high-efficiency back during his four years at Texas, but through two NFL seasons, he’s yet to record a 30-yard run and has been more of a plodding option.
That isn’t an overly appealing skill set for fantasy football managers unless weaponized in a very specific way, and we saw glimpses of that in 2024. Is a battering ram role enough to justify drafting Johnson and hoping that he cashes in a short carry on the off chance you are forced into a spot where you have to use him?
Roschon Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook
You’re drafting Johnson for a very specific situation and nothing more.
It really is that simple.
At least two dozen receivers are being drafted after Round 14 (the average cost of Johnson per our Fantasy Football mock Draft Simulator), and a handful of running backs who have a much cleaner path to league-altering upside than Johnson.
If that is how you want to spend a pick in this range, you’re not sniffing around Johnson, a pigeon-holed RB who isn’t a lock to lead this team in rush attempts if starter D’Andre Swift were to miss time.
That said, not all managers aim for sheer upside in the back-half of drafts, and that is where Johnson becomes interesting.
rate of RBs being stuffed for no gain in short yardage:
44% – MIA, NE
43%
42%
41%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36% – LV
35%
34% – NO
33% – MIN
32% – SEA, LAC, DEN
31% – CIN, JAX, CLE
30%
29% – IND
28% – NYJ
27%
26% – KC, WAS, HOU
25%
24% – LAR, NYG
23% – BUF, PHI, SF
22% – CAR, ARI, ATL
21%…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 25, 2025
Point blank, that’s a Johnson stat. In 2024, he turned six carries on the one-yard line into six yards and thus, six scores. Being perfect in such spots is tough to sustain, but there’s no denying that he is the preferred option to Swift (12 carries for six touchdowns and a total of -9 yards on the one-yard line for his career) when it comes to these very valuable attempts.
Drafters are aware that plugging Johnson in, with confidence, as a starter isn’t likely to happen. The odds may not be great for a Jaylen Wright, Braelon Allen, or even Miles Sanders type to assume lead roles in their specific situations. Still, they are closer to a touch count that could vault them into the top-30 at the position in any given week should the health around them fall apart.
But if you assume health across the board, Johnson’s handful of touches have a better chance of getting you 7-9 points than any of those players.
So, what kind of drafter are you? What type of roster have you built, and what type of depth makes sense?
I feel no real obligation to ensure any Swift investment with Johnson, making this truly a self-evaluation. Johnson was trusted with double-digit carries twice last season due to the game script, and, in those games, his longest rush was eight yards.
In 2023, opponents weren’t sure what was coming with a rookie version of Johnson. Last year, however, they knew exactly what was coming.
RB dive.
On his 55 rush attempts, Johnson picked up 36 yards before contact. Even if you’re skeptical on Swift staying healthy (one missed game and 563 touches over the past two seasons after missing 10 games and totaling 520 touches in three years with the Lions) for an entire season, we don’t have any real proof of concept when it comes to Johnson being given the keys to the backfield in a meaningful way.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
There’s nothing wrong with chasing touchdowns. Bye weeks and injuries are going to make filling out a roster difficult at some point for you this season, and praying for Johnson’s specific singular skill to cash in might be more comfortable than betting on a WR3 who might see three targets.
There’s a time and place for Johnson, and it’s an acceptable pick in the later rounds as long as you’re not expecting anything more than marginal growth, especially on a per-game basis.
Frank Ammirante’s Roschon Johnson Projection
Roschon Johnson came into the offseason as the best bet to be D’Andre Swift’s backup in Chicago, with the chance that he can carve out a role, especially in short yardage and the red zone. But now, that outcome is in question, particularly with the emergence of rookie Kyle Monangai, whom the Bears selected in the seventh round.
Some reports have speculated that Johnson could be a cut candidate. If he was cut, it’s unlikely that he’d go to a better situation, one where he can emerge as a 1B in a committee.
Considering these circumstances, it’s a bad idea to take a shot on Johnson right now. If your draft comes after the cuts are over and we see that Johnson remains on the Bears, he’s fine to take in Best Ball. Otherwise, if you want to take a shot on a lottery ticket in the Bears’ backfield, go with Monangai, who was drafted by this regime.
