Rome Odunze Fantasy Profile: Should We Buy The Year Two Hype?

After an uninspiring rookie season, can the Bears' Rome Odunze live up to his first round draft capital with a big 2025?

The Chicago Bears aggressively addressed their offense in 2023 by pairing wide receiver Rome Odunze with quarterback Caleb Williams. They continued to execute that plan by drafting tight end Colston Loveland and all-around weapon Luther Burden III in April.

It’s clear that the focus in the Windy City these days is putting points on the board to keep pace in the loaded NFC North. Can Odunze make the type of Year 2 jump that vaults him into the weekly starter tier of fantasy football rankings?

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Rome Odunze’s Fantasy Outlook

We’ve been spoiled recently in seeing receivers thrive from the jump. Our society is as reliant on instant gratification as ever, and that train of thought, along with the drafting of Burden, has opened up a bit of a post-hype buying window.

Yes, some receivers make a splash off the jump, but it’s far from rare to see a high-pedigree receiver take a step forward in Year 2. Over the past decade, seven WRs with top-10 draft capital spent on them have qualified in each of their first two seasons. Here is how their per-game production changed from Year 1 to Year 2.

  • Amari Cooper (class of 2015): +9.3%
  • Corey Davis (2017): +81.6%
  • Jaylen Waddle (2021): -0.7%
  • Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +12.7%
  • DeVonta Smith (2021): +37.2%
  • Garrett Wilson (2022): -1.2%
  • Drake London (2022): +3.7%

Expecting a step forward is plenty reasonable, especially with continuity under center. As a rookie, he had a pair of 100-yard games with a two-score game in December, but for the most part, he looked like a first-year player with a first-year QB.

Odunze had 11 games with no more than six targets in 2024, with nine under 40 receiving yards. There are efficiency concerns from last year that need to be rectified. That’s a fact. That said, if I’ve learned anything from being married, it’s not always what you say, it’s how you say it.

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So, instead of focusing on the inefficiencies, I want to hone in on the type of targets that Odunze was able to earn as a rookie.

Most End Zone Targets By a Rookie WR Since 2015

  • DK Metcalf: 20
  • Marvin Harrison Jr.: 19
  • Odunze: 16
  • Ja’Marr Chase / Cortland Sutton: 14

A top-30 season would be great, and a top-40 season would be plenty acceptable. DJ Moore is set to lead this team in targets, and the incoming rookie class is going to soak up usage, but I think we saw enough from Odunze to put him on the weekly Flex radar and draft him as such with the understanding that he could develop into a WR3 on a weekly basis without much changing.

Dan Fornek’s Rome Odunze Projection

Rome Odunze fell well short of expectations in his rookie season. Odunze was viewed as the final wide receiver piece on an ascending Bears offense with the number one overall pick at quarterback (Caleb Williams). But the offense struggled behind poor play calling, a bad offensive line, and a quarterback trying to make big plays and taking sacks.

Instead, Odunze was the WR56 in PPR points per game (8.5), catching just 54 of 101 targets for 734 yards and three touchdowns. The presence of D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen forced Odunze into a downfield role that yielded very positive fantasy weeks.

Odunze was a top 15 wide receiver in average depth of target (13.8, WR11), deep targets (23, WR11), and air yards (1,398, WR14). Unfortunately, he had the second-most unrealized air yards (917) thanks to his rookie quarterback being the worst deep passer in the NFL.

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There are still signs of hope for Odunze heading into his second season. As a rookie, he had the 10th most red-zone targets (18) and the 13th best contested catch rate (54.5%). He has frequently been praised for his route running and physicality by new head coach and play caller Ben Johnson, which suggests a more fantasy-friendly role in 2025. The Bears also improved their offensive line, hopefully giving Williams time to deliver passes to his weapons.

Chicago’s passing offense is loaded with talent, making it hard to predict exactly how the target distribution will go in Ben Johnson’s first season. Talent rises to the top, and there is a world where the second-year receiver is the most talented pass catcher in Chicago’s offense. It is hard to trust him as more than a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside until we see that potential convert to production.

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